What’s going on here?

The holiday shopping season, kicking off with Black Friday, is here, offering a snapshot of US consumer spending and economic health amid persistent inflation issues.

What does this mean?

The holiday shopping season plays a crucial role in assessing consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity. Recently, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.7%, nearing record highs, driven by robust third-quarter earnings that showed a 9% year-on-year increase. Retail giants like Walmart have revised their sales projections upward, indicating resilience, while Target struggles with cost-conscious customers. Though inflation has eased from its peak, it continues to squeeze consumer purchasing power, complicating the Federal Reserve’s inflation strategy. A Morgan Stanley survey indicates that 35% of consumers plan to boost holiday spending this year, suggesting optimism tempered with caution.

Why should I care?

For markets: Navigating economic currents.

Retail stocks show varied results; Walmart is up over 70% in 2024, while budget chains like Dollar General and Dollar Tree experience over 40% declines due to inflation’s impact on lower-income shoppers. Target’s 12% drop highlights its challenge in standing out. Consumer discretionary and staples sectors have risen by 23% and 16%, respectively, compared to the S&P 500’s 25% gain. Upcoming results from Best Buy, Macy’s, and others could shed more light on retail health.

The bigger picture: Inflation’s ripple effect.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is anticipated to increase by 2.3% year-over-year in October, a critical metric for the Fed as it juggles inflation control with potential rate changes. Retailers are tasked with protecting profit margins while delivering value to consumers in a high-inflation context, making their strategic responses vital for maintaining performance in a challenging economic environment.