Retailers are approaching the holiday season with cautious optimism, even as shoppers signal they plan on keeping spending in check. That’s the message from analysts as well as from retailers themselves as consumers delve into Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals.

The National Retail Federation expects a 3.5% bump in spending online and in-store, between November and December. That would mark the slowest growth rate in six years. At the same time, consumer sentiment is showing signs of improvement, as inflation moderates and lower interest rates take hold. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index ticked up for a fourth straight month in November.

However, shoppers remain cautious, citing uncertainty around the economic outlook and President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including additional tariffs.

“I think we will see a little bit more inflation as we move into next year, so I’m a little bit concerned from that perspective,” said Donna Campbell, as she shopped with her daughter.

With Black Friday falling later in the month this year, retailers began rolling out promotions as early as October. Adobe Analytics expects stores to discount up to 30% off of listed prices, with the steepest discounts online.

Walmart (WMT) CFO John Rainey told Yahoo Finance he expects pocketbooks to remain stretched, even as the company raised its sales and profit outlook for the holiday quarter.

“We’re seeing that [shoppers] are buying less general merchandise as they’re spending more on food; there’s less to spend on some of the more discretionary items,” he said.

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