It didn’t have to be this way. But here we go.

In January the American job market just finished up its four-year stint as the strongest in American history, by a long shot. Seventeen million jobs created is the most for any single-term presidency and has been topped by only one two-term president, Bill Clinton. Clinton’s two terms saw a growth of 23 million jobs; Biden’s rate of job creation was 40% better. A yeoman’s task. The unemployment rate was historically low (at or near 4.0%) for the longest sustained time, and job growth was spread among every sector. Open jobs remained high, voluntary quits (a sign of workplace confidence) were also high. All the while, wages continued to rise.

The reason for this is simple. President Biden had a deep commitment to the middle class and to its workers, and did everything he could to back up that position.

It seems that has changed – in a hurry. President Trump and his chief executioner have moved huge numbers from the commuting lanes to the unemployment ranks, wielding what they see as their terrible swift sword, starting with government jobs. We don’t yet know how many, as the courts have already weighed in on the issue to reverse the actions. Suffice to say, though, it will wind up being a massacre. And then there will be the ancillary effects on all parts of the workforce that depend on all those govern contracts and services.

Now, not only are the job market numbers going to show measurable decline – yes, I’m going out on a limb – the softer factors like consumer confidence are also in for a hit. That plays an insidious role in the job market.Those are the easy things to foretell; anyone with the slightest familiarity of the job market can get that far. What bothers me are the many dots farther away from the center that are harder to connect. What effect will Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization have on the scientific community and employment within it? That ripple effect goes far: the government, research institutions, skilled manufacturing, investments, an

Beyond that, employees both large and small were all talking loudly and hiring energetically with confidence. Have you noticed the sudden quiet and stillness? Further, what about the Infrastructure Bill, which promises to create tens of thousands of jobs, or at least it did up until last month; the CHIPS and Science Act, and the broad-based commitment to climate protection, which everyone agreed would add jobs all over the place?

And by the way, how much is a dozen eggs today? Worse, when did you ever see eggs sold individually? This is reminiscent of the Great Depression.

And if you never thought that international relations affected your job or company, keep your eyes and ears open. The U.S. just cast a horrible vote in the U.N., we are alienating all our key trading partners (Mexico, Canada, the E.U.), and are walking away from our long-held position of foreign aid, handing that right over to China

Most intangible of all – but certainly not the least toxic – are the divisions within us: political, social, cultural, geographical. Those are differences that should be accepted and worked with; instead, they are exploited. I’ve been a job market observer long enough (28 years) to know that this spells trouble. It always does.

And after the four best years our job market ever had, it took only a month. It didn’t have to be this way. But here we go.

In January the American job market just finished up its four-year stint as the strongest in American history, by a long shot. Seventeen million jobs created is the most for any single-term presidency and has been topped by only one two-term president, Bill Clinton. Clinton’s two terms saw a growth of 23 million jobs; Biden’s rate of job creation was 40% better. A yeoman’s task. The unemployment rate was historically low (at or near 4.0%) for the longest sustained time, and job growth was spread among every sector. Open jobs remained high, voluntary quits (a sign of workplace confidence) were also high. All the while, wages continued to rise.

The reason for this is simple. President Biden had a deep commitment to the middle class and to its workers, and did everything he could to back up that position.

It seems that has changed – in a hurry. President Trump and his chief executioner have moved huge numbers from the commuting lanes to the unemployment ranks, wielding what they see as their terrible swift sword, starting with government jobs. We don’t yet know how many, as the courts have already weighed in on the issue to reverse the actions. Suffice to say, though, it will wind up being a massacre. And then there will be the ancillary effects on all parts of the workforce that depend on all those govern contracts and services.

Now, not only are the job market numbers going to show measurable decline – yes, I’m going out on a limb – the softer factors like consumer confidence are also in for a hit. That plays an insidious role in the job market.

Those are the easy things to foretell; anyone with the slightest familiarity of the job market can get that far. What bothers me are the many dots farther away from the center that are harder to connect. What effect will Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization have on the scientific community and employment within it? That ripple effect goes far: the government, research institutions, skilled manufacturing, investments, and so on.

Beyond that, employees both large and small were all talking loudly and hiring energetically with confidence. Have you noticed the sudden quiet and stillness? Further, what about the Infrastructure Bill, which promises to create tens of thousands of jobs, or at least it did up until last month; the CHIPS and Science Act, and the broad-based commitment to climate protection, which everyone agreed would add jobs all over the place?

And by the way, how much is a dozen eggs today? Worse, when did you ever see eggs sold individually? This is reminiscent of the Great Depression.

And if you never thought that international relations affected your job or company, keep your eyes and ears open. The U.S. just cast a horrible vote in the U.N., we are alienating all our key trading partners (Mexico, Canada, the E.U.), and are walking away from our long-held position of foreign aid, handing that right over to China

Most intangible of all – but certainly not the least toxic – are the divisions within us: political, social, cultural, geographical. Those are differences that should be accepted and worked with; instead, they are exploited. I’ve been a job market observer long enough (28 years) to know that this spells trouble. It always does.

And after the four best years our job market ever had, it took only a month. We can’t possibly hope for the best at this point; we can only hope we don’t get the worst.