Ashley

Laurie

1.  Gate
to Wire

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Gate to Wire enters off a five-length romp
in the Swale Stakes. It was the colt’s first race over traditional dirt and
turned out to be a career best. He received a 99 Equibase speed rating for
the effort. Gate to Wire debuted a winner on turf and followed that up with a
second-place finish behind highly regarded Mentee in the Futurity (G3). He then was 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint to close out 2024
and fifth in an optional claimer on Tapeta to begin 2025. The big knock
against Gate to Wire is his lack of experience around two turns. He never has  raced beyond seven furlongs, but Pletcher is 22% wins with a 53% in-the-money
rate with sprint-to-route runners. Gate to Wire’s early run style
should be to his advantage. Dylan Davis, who was aboard in the Swale Stakes,
retains the mount. Exotics.

Gate to
Wire loved the Gulfstream dirt in the listed Swale Stakes. He tracked the
swift early pace through fractions of 21.93 and 43.92 seconds for the half, before
circling four wide and drawing off by five lengths under a hand ride. The
race was visually impressive, but Gate to Wire recorded a final time of
1:22.51 with a final 13.40 furlong for seven furlongs. He earned
a career-best 99 Brisnet Speed Rating but an 85 late-pace figure, one of the
lowest in the Fountain of Youth field. Munnings’s son is out of the Street Cry
mare Sansibar Jewel. The second generation of his distaff line is filled
with European group winners, including Irish St. Leger hero Royal Diamond and
Gate to Wire’s second dam, Group 2 winner Irresistible Jewel. Gate to Wire should
handle the extra distance. His off-the-pace running style means Dylan Davis must work out a trip from the rail unless the colt can
live up to his gate-to-wire name. A concern is that he might bounce from the
18-point jump in his speed rating. Exotics.

2.  Sovereignty

Trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty broke his maiden in the Street
Sense (G3) in his third career start. He was fourth on debut and second by
just a neck in his second start. His debut race at Saratoga produced two next-out winners, and the victor Tip Top Thomas was second in the Champagne (G1)
in his next start. Nothing of note except Sovereignty exited the colt’s
second race, but the Street Sense (G3) form for the top three finishers so far has held. Runner-up Tiztastic hit the board in two more graded events, and
third-place finisher Sandman was second in the Southwest (G3) after winning
an optional claimer. Mott is 13% wins with a 46% in-the-money clip with
runners making their first start off a two to six-month layoff. Regular rider
Junior Alvarado has the call. Contender.

Sovereignty
makes his 3-year-old debut against a field with more recent activity under
their girths. His speed ratings improved incrementally, his late-pace figures
show a solid kick, and he’s one of two in the field who have recorded a
triple-digit late-pace figure in their short career. The Bill Mott trainee has
been breezing steadily at Payson Park. Into Mischief’s son is out of the
unraced Bernardini mare Crowned, a daughter of Grade 1 winner and 2009
Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up Mushka. Sovereignty’s third dam, Lakeway, was
third in the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Although Sovereignty must prove he has
matured and can handle this group, the good thing is that he has tactical
speed. Contender.

3.  Burnham
Square

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Burnham Square has shown an affinity for the
Gulfstream oval. After hitting the board in his first two starts, both at
Kentucky tracks, Burnham Square found the winner’s circle with a nine-length
romp to close out 2024. He returned a winner in 2025 with a 1 3/4-length
victory in the Holy Bull. The gelding’s speed figures continued to
improve with the Holy Bull, for which he received a 95 Equibase speed
figure. Wilkes is just 8% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate in graded stakes
in the last year, but Burnham Square seems to be one who could help Wilkes
improve those stats. Edgard Zayas gets the return call. Contender.

The
outside post in the Holy Bull posed no problem for Burnham Square.
Masterfully ridden by Edgard Zayas, the colt picked off rivals while weaving
through Miami rush hour traffic. Once he saw daylight, the Ian Wilkes trainee opened up by 1 3/4 lengths. He completed 1 1/16 miles
in 1:43.60 and his final half-furlong in 6.41. Burnham
Square earned a 101 speed rating, and his figures improved in each start. Liam’s
Map’s son is out of Grade 2-winning turf miler Linda. Burnham Square’s second
dam is Grade 2-winning turf router Beautiful Noise. Burnham Square and
Withers Stakes entrant Uncle Jim share the same third dam, Margaret’s Number.
As Ashley noted, Burnham Square loves Gulfstream Park. Normally a one-run
closer, he showed a new dimension when graduating last year, taking the lead
early. Contender.

4.  McKellen

Trained by Jose D’Angelo, McKellen is cross-entered in an optional
claimer on Feb. 27. McKellen most recently was a well-beaten sixth in the
Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The Mucho Macho Man essentially has been a bust. Winner Guns Loaded ran back seventh in the Holy Bull, runner-up Treaty
of Rome was ninth next out in the Sam F. Davis, and third-place finisher
Septarian was sixth in the Risen Star (G2). Only fourth-place finisher Macho
Music, who was second in the Swale Stakes next out, has shown good form
since. D’Angelo is 13% wins with a 39% in-the-money clip in graded stakes
over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Tyler Gaffalione will be the
colt’s fourth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

McKellen
had an odd trip in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes under Irad Ortiz Jr.
They tracked the pace from the rail, then Ortiz let the colt back off to
almost last before switching to the outside and pushing him five wide around
the turn. They had a clear path up the rail, but I wasn’t riding, so it’s an
observation, not a critique. McKellen was physically and mentally tired
down the lane and checked in sixth. By the
fourth leading second-crop sire McKinzie, McKellen is out of the Grade 3
placed turf miler Don’t Blame Me. McKellen’s half-sister Tiny Temper won last
year’s Azeri (G2). McKellen’s second and third dams are stakes-winning
sprinters. Jose Francisco D’Angelo’s charge has some of the
lowest speed ratings in the field. Pass.

5.  Solid
Left

Trained by Brian Lynch, Solid Left is a last-out maiden winner and cross-entered
in the same Thursday race as McKellen. The colt was eighth upon debut,
finishing 18 1/2 lengths behind Holy Bull runner-up Tappan Street. While
his debut race produced two other next-out winners, his most recent race hasn’t
shown much promise. Solid Left received a measly 80 Equibase speed figure for
his victory, though it was much improved from the 56 he earned in his debut.
Luis Saez has the return call. Pass.

Solid
Left picked a contentious spot to take on more experienced winners for the
first time. He improved to win his second start by a widening 2 1/2 lengths
under a hand ride, earning an improved 86 Brisnet speed rating. The Brian
Lynch trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.24, with a final half-furlong in
6.56. He has a solid pattern of breezes at Palm Meadows. West Coast’s son is
out of 2013
Canadian champion turf mare Solid Appeal. The mare’s
half-sister bore Grade 1 winner It Tiz Well. Solid Left may regress off of
his victory, and his speed ratings need improvement to be a factor. Pass.

6.  River
Thames

Also from the Todd Pletcher barn, River Thames is undefeated in two
career starts. He was much the best in both starts, winning by a combined 11
1/4 lengths. River Thames debuted on Jan. 11, so he’s already racing
steadily for Pletcher and should be plenty sharp for his graded debut. With
such a recent start to his career, it’s difficult to gauge how good he
might be since many rivals he’s faced haven’t made subsequent starts. He did
receive a field-best 105 Equibase speed figure for his debut.
Regular rider John Velazquez gets the return call. Contender.

River
Thames appears to be the strongest of the Pletcher entries. He captured his two
starts by a combined 11 lengths and was never seriously threatened either
time. Breaking from the rail both times, he pressed the early pace and stared
down his rival before floating home by open lengths. In his last outing,
River Thames completed a mile in 1:36.34 with a 13.25-second final furlong without
being pressured. He earned a sharp 99 speed rating in his second start, and
his 91 late pace figure fits with these. Maclean’s
Music’s son is out of the winning Discreet Cat mare Proportionality. The
extended family includes two-time Carter (G1) hero Dad’s Caps and multiple
Grade 1-winning heroine Paulassilverlining. Pletcher
and Velazquez triumphed in the 2010 Fountain of Youth with Eskendereya, and
that one was coming off an allowance win at Gulfstream. Contender.

7.  Neoequos

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Neoequos has excelled against Florida-bred company. Aside from his debut, in which he was bumped at the start and
lost Drayden Van Dyke, Neoequos has never been out of the exacta. He broke
his maiden in open company, but his last three starts all were against state-breds. He finished second to Rated by Merit in the FTBOA Florida Sire
Dr. Fager Stakes and the FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes. Most recently he
won an allowance race in restricted company. Along with racing nearly
primarily against Florida breds, Neoequos has also competed only in sprints.
Stretching out for the first time and doing so in open company sounds like a
stretch even if Neoequos likes the track. Having Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard can
only help his chances, but this is a bit of an ask. Pass.

As
Ashley stated, Neoequos won in open company and against state-bred allowance
types. Last fall, he couldn’t compete with Rated By Merit, the best
2-year-old colt in Florida. Unfortunately, we won’t see that one anytime soon
since he’s recovering from bone bruising. Saffie Joseph
Jr.’s charge owns a 101 speed rating, so we know he’s fast. By Harlan’s Holiday’s son Neolithic, Neoequos is out of the stakes-placed
Birdstone mare, Bold Birdie. The black type in this family comprises Canadian listed sprinter-milers. Although it’s true that Neoequos is stretching out and moving into graded company, the
trainer is a wiz with local horses on the Derby trail, and it doesn’t hurt to
have the meet’s leading jock aboard. Long-shot exotics shot.

8.  Keep
It Easy

Trained by Dale Romans, Keep It Easy has been off since winning
Churchill Downs’s Ed Brown Stakes on Nov. 30. He earned a career-best 94
Equibase speed figure but has been wildly inconsistent. In four starts, he’s
won twice and finished off the board twice in a lose-win-lose-win pattern.
Keep It Easy was seventh on debut and a well-beaten eighth in his graded
debut in the Saratoga Special (G2). He had an excuse in the Saratoga Special, however, as he kissed the dirt coming out of the gate. This will be the
colt’s first attempt at a route, and Romans is 15% wins with a 44%
in-the-money clip with sprint to route runners. But Romans has not
saddled a graded winner in the last year and is only 7% in-the-money during
that same time frame. Corey Lanerie will get the leg up. Pass.

Keep It
Easy showed promise last year as a maiden and in the Ed Brown Stakes, winning by a combined 9 1/4 lengths. He lost all
chance when he faceplanted coming out of the Saratoga Special gate. The
Dale Romans trainee’s speed rating improved in the Ed Brown to a 96, and his
90 late-pace figure is in the top four. A $435,000
Keeneland September yearling, Keep It Easy is by Hard Spun out of Boxwood, a
stakes-winning turf miler. There’s some minor class in the third generation,
a restricted winning turf miler. Keep It Easy is
bred to love two turns and to improve with maturity. This plain brown wrapper
owns a pair of sharp five-furlong moves, including a bullet in 59.05 earlier
this month. Ashley showed that Romans’s stats aren’t the highest, but the
trainer captured the 2018 Fountain of Youth with long shot Promises
Fulfilled. Long-shot exotics.