Laurie

Ashley

1. Muhimma (4-5)

Untested in both starts, Muhimma enters the Demoiselle with a combined winning margin of 13 lengths against sprinters, including Liam in the Dust. She owns an 87 Brisnet speed rating and 84 late pace figure, the highest in the Demoiselle field. In her last start, the pretty gray filly was hard held early while pressing the pace. However, once given her head, Muhimma exploded around the turn, left them in the dust and was eased up in the final furlong.

A daughter of Munnings, Muhimma is out of the stakes-winning turf router Princesa Carolina. Her second dam is multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Pure Clan, who also captured a pair of graded stakes on dirt and was third in the Kentucky Oaks.

Per Race Lens, Munnings has seven winners from 82 starts on dirt at 1 1/8 miles, but Muhimma’s distaff line lends stamina.

Although she’s shipping and trying two turns for the first time, Muhimma is the one to beat. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Muhimma is unbeaten and untested in two starts, winning them by a combined thirteen lengths. The runner up from Muhimma’s debut race, a 6 1/2-furlong, $120,000 affair at Churchill Downs, was a next-out winner. The seven-furlong, high-level optional claimer Muhimma won in her second outing included Pocahontas (G3) runner up Liam in the Dust, who ran 5 1/2 lengths back in second. Muhimma will be stretching out around two turns for the first time, and Cox is 37% wins with a 67% in the money rate with sprint-to-route runners. Regular jockey Florent Geroux retains the mount. Contender.

2. Liam in the Dust (10-1)

Liam in the Dust fought on the lead in the Pocahontas (G3) but couldn’t hold off the late-charging winner. After switching running styles to a one-run closer in her last start, Liam in the Dust wasn’t a match for Muhimma, but the Rodolphe Brisset trainee closed for a clear second place, 3 1/2 lengths in front of the third-place filly.

By Liam’s Map, Liam in the Dust is out of Whisper Louise, an unraced Bernardini mare. The second generation of Liam in the Dust’s female family includes Grade 1 winner Pinehurst. Race Lens shows Liam’s Map has four winners from 61 starters at 1 1/8 miles. However, Liam in the Dust receives some stamina from her distaff line.

In her last race, Liam in the Dust earned an 82 late pace figure, the second-highest in the Demoiselle field. Her closing style could help with the extra distance, and she’s worth an exotics play.

Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Liam in the Dust was a debut winner in a seven-furlong, $71,000 maiden event at Ellis Park. The runner up from that race, her stablemate Impulse Buy, was a next-out winner and eventual stakes winner. The Pocahontas (G3) was her second career start, and she had the lead before being out finished and having to settle for second. The filly was up on a fairly quick pace in the Alcibiades (G1) before hitting a brick wall then getting bumped. Flavien Prat eased the filly and jogged home last of seven. Liam in the Dust redeemed herself last out, however, finishing second to Muhimma, rallying to get up for the place after having to check hard out of a tight spot and getting kickback for the first time. I don’t think the 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades was truly indicative of the filly’s ability to get two turns. She has been up on some quick fractions in her two previous route races and can likely stretch her speed with a more relaxed tempo up front. Prat reunites with the filly after Luan Machado was up last out. Exotics.

3. Fortuna Mia (15-1)

Fortuna Mia has been outclassed in her last three starts, all ungraded stakes. In her defense, she had a wide trip each time. In the one-mile Tempted Stakes, the Linda Rice trainee gained ground in the stretch while on her left lead and earned a career-best 82 Brisnet rating.

By leading First Crop sire Vekoma, Fortuna Mia is out of a winning Cairo Prince mare who is a half to Grade 2-winning sprinter Fioretti. The extended family includes Grade 1 winning juvenile fillies Bast and Juju’s Map.

Fortuna Mia needs considerable improvement to be competitive here. Pass.

Trained by Linda Rice, Fortuna Mia was a debut winner in a 4 1/2-furlong, $32,000 maiden event at Indianapolis. She followed that up with a distance third in the $225,000 Debutante at Churchill Downs before finishing off the board in both the $150,000 Bolton Landing and the $150,000 Tempted Stakes. Eric Cancel, who was aboard in the Tempted, retains the mount and is the first jockey to ride this filly more than once. Pass.

4. Carmen’s Candy Jar (12-1)

Carmen’s Candy Jar jumps into graded stakes after bridesmaid results against restricted stakes company. She had virtually identical rail trips in the Joseph A. Gimma and Tempted Stakes but tired in the stretch while the top pair widened their leads.

By the fourth-leading second-crop sire Vino Rosso, Carmen’s Candy Jar is out of the unraced Uncle Mo mare No Mo Shopping. That one’s full sister is a stakes-winning miler, and a half-sister, Always Shopping, is a multiple-graded winning router on turf and dirt. Carmen’s Candy Jar’s second dam is the stakes-winning turf sprinter Stopshoppingmaria, who also placed in the Frizette (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Perhaps blinkers will help Carmen’s Candy Jar, and she may not like being on the rail. Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Carmen’s Candy Jar was a debut winner in a five furlong, $75,000 state-bred maiden race at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet back in June. Pletcher tried her in open company in the six-furlong, $175,000 Schuylerville at Saratoga, and the filly finished fourth. Pletcher moved her back to New York-bred company for her next three starts, resulting in a second in the $200,000, six furlong Seeking the Ante, a distant third in the $125,000, seven furlong Joseph A. Gimma, and another third in the one mile, $200,000 Maid of the Mist Stakes. Carmen’s Candy Jar will get an equipment change, running with first time blinkers, an angle at which Pletcher is 18% wins with a 55% in the money clip. Regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount. Pass.

5. Michelle (20-1)

Michelle outclassed maidens at Laurel by four lengths in her debut. She was full of run around the turn but flagged her tail and ducked from the crop when asked to pass a rival. Once past the pacesetter, Carlos Lopez let up on the gas, and Michelle galloped home, completing six furlongs in 1:12.57, with a 13.40 final furlong. The Brittany Russell trainee earned a 75 Brisnet rating, which can be improved.

Street Sense’s daughter is out of the unraced Ghostzapperm mare, Clear the Clouds. That one is half to Belmont Stakes runner-up Oxbow. Michelle’s second dam is a full sister to Tiznow.

Michelle is bred to love classic distances and to improve with maturity. Michelle is taking on classier rivals, but she’s worth a look for an exotics placing.

Trained by Brittany Russell, Michelle was a debut winner at Laurel, taking a six furlong, $47,000 event by four lengths. None from that field have so far become winners. Michelle received an okay 75 Brisnet speed rating for that effort. Russell has won at an 11% rate with a 38% in-the-money clip on the NYRA circuit in the past year and is 13% wins with a 50% in the money rate in graded stakes in New York, per Race Lens. Katie Davis takes over from Carlos Eduardo Lopez. I don’t see a victory for the ladies here, but they could be a nice price play underneath. Exotics long shot.

6. Bless the Broken (12-1)

After switching to Will Walden’s barn, Bless the Broken regressed badly in her second start, beaten 25 lengths. She redeemed herself in her next start in a sustained battle down the stretch with the eventual winner, Amarth. It was a decent effort for her second start at 1 1/16 miles, and she earned a 77 Brisnet rating.

Laoban’s daughter is out of Tapit’s daughter, The Nightengale. That one’s full brother is a stakes-placed router, and their half-sister is Kentucky Oaks heroine Princess of Sylmar.

Bless the Broken can show further improvement in her third start off the layoff, and she should handle the extra distance. Exotics.

Now trained by William Walden, Bless the Broken was a smashing debut winner in a low-level, 4 1/2-furlong maiden event at Evangeline Downs for Ricky Courville. Walden sent her out for her second race, resulting in a 25 3/4 length thumping in a high-level optional claimer at Keeneland. Bless the Broken made her third start under the same conditions and at the same 1 1/16 mile distance at Churchill Downs and rallied to just miss the victory by a neck. Walden is a 9% winner with a 27% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years per Race Lens. He will be taking the blinkers off Bless the Broken, an angle at which he is 10% wins with a 30% in the money rate over the last year. Manny Franco has the call. Pass.

7. Five a Side (20-1)

Third time was the charm for Five a Side, and she bested a mediocre herd of sprinters at Parx in 1:25.90 for seven furlongs with a 13.39 final furlong. Two of her nine rivals were second in their next start. The John Servis trainee regressed in the Tempted Stakes, finishing fifth.

By first-crop sire Spun to Run, Five a Side is out of Kylbrylie, a stakes-placed sprinter. The extended female family includes Grade 1 winning sprinter Vahva.

Five a Side should improve with maturity, and her speed ratings are in the 80’s, but she needs to prove she belongs with this group. Pass.

Trained by John Servis, Five a Side made her first three starts at Delaware and Parx. She finished second in her first two starts before breaking through in her third start. Servis then shipped her to Aqueduct for the $150,000 Tempted Stakes in which she finished fifth, beaten by 9 1/4 lengths. Servis is 11% wins with a 32% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. He has only started two juveniles in graded stakes during that time frame; neither won and one finished in the money. Joel Rosario will get the call for the first time. Pass.

8. Beauty Reigns (9-2)

Beauty Reigns pressed the pace in her debut, then took over just after the 1/8 pole. She gave the side-eye to challenger My Sherrona, and that one backed off. The pretty gray filly didn’t need encouragement to win by a measured half-length, getting 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:17.91. The Bill Mott trainee earned a 78 Brisnet rating and has room to improve.

Into Mischief’s daughter is out of the unraced Tapit mare Ilsa. That one is half to Peter Pan (G2) runner-up Saint Vigeuur and to Grade 3 placed sprinter Victory Way. The extended family includes champion 2-year-old filly Sweet Catomine and Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Life is Sweet.

Beauty Reigns has the pedigree to enjoy 1 1/8 miles but is facing more experienced runners, and her Brisnet rating is low. Pass.

Trained by Bill Mott, Beauty Reigns is a maiden winner with just one start under her girth. She won a 6 1/2-furlong, $90,000 maiden event over the Aqueduct track on November 8. Due to the recency of that race, it’s too early to tell what she beat since none from that field have made subsequent starts. Mott is 18% wins with a 43% in the money clip with sprint to route runners, according to Race Lens. He’s also 21% wins with a 25% in the money rate with two year olds in graded stakes over the past five years. While her Equibase speed figure of 76 is low, Beauty Reigns has room to improve. Junior Alvarado retains the mount. Contender.

9. Tip Line (30-1)

Tip Line also regressed in the Tempted Stakes after graduating by open lengths at Parx. Her 8 1/2 length maiden victory was suspect since none of her rivals hit the board in their next start.

This daughter of Nyquist is out of the unraced Tapit mare Tap to My Lu. Tip Line’s second dam is Grade 1 winning sprinter Sweet Lulu. That one is a full sister to multiple graded winning miler Anchor Down and a half to Iron Fist, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. 

Tip Line didn’t have an excuse in the Tempted, and she’ll need considerable improvement to be competitive here. Pass.

Trained by Uriah St. Lewis, Tip Line, as Laurie stated, beat a suspect field in her debut before finishing 19 1/4 lengths behind the winner in seventh in the $150,000 Tempted Stakes. St. Lewis will add blinkers for this race, an angle at which he’s winless across the board in the last year. He has also not hit the board in graded stakes during that same time frame, per Race Lens. Jockey Francisco Martinez has the return call. Pass.

10. Ballerina d’Oro (8-1)

Ballerina d’Oro hopes to improve her form by switching to dirt and adding distance. She won her second start at Kentucky Downs, then placed eighth while gaining ground in the Jessamine (G2). The Chad Brown trainee had an excuse, as she had a tardy start and bumped with a rival, leaving her at the back of the pack.

Medaglia d’Oro’s daughter is out of the unplaced Tapit mare In the Moonlight. That one is half to Indiana Derby (G2) winner Wilburn and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) hero Beethoven. Multiple graded winning turf router Grand Sonata is part of the family, and the second dam, Moonlight Sonata, is a Grade 3 winner.

Ballerina d’Oro handled the dirt just fine in early works this summer at Saratoga and physically resembles her damsire. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Ballerina d’Oro makes the switch to dirt after two off the board placings on turf, including in the Jessamine (G2), in three starts. Along with the surface switch, Brown will also add blinkers for the Demoiselle. He is 30% wins and 46% in the money both with first time blinkers and blinkers on over the past year, per Race Lens. Brown is also 14% with a 54% in-the-money clip when switching runners from turf to dirt. I think the surface switch will move this filly up. Dylan Davis, who has been on fire in the last month and was aboard in the Jessamine (G2), retains the mount. Contender.