by John Berry

On just about every pari-mutuel racing program, the patron will find the morning line, which is one person’s opinion — or maybe, in this day and age, one computer’s opinion — of the anticipated winner of a race.

As a handicapper and morning-line maker, I have seen morning lines from countless tracks and have found that the most important morning line is yours, and a complete handicapper will make their own independent line and, quite possibly, take advantage of ones shown in the program.

Since my first handicapping gig 50 years ago — Balmoral Park — I have been fortunate to rub shoulders with many of the best handicappers in the harness racing industry, from Mike Paradise and Johnny Brokopp in Chicagoland to Jay Bergman and Derick Giwner out east to Garnet Barnsdale and Gil Winston and many others too numerous to mention.

I, myself, besides Balmoral Park, have done seminars at The Meadowlands, Teletrack and, of course, my beloved Pompano Park, doing track night broadcasts with Gabe Prewitt for many years.

Yes, I have had to put some “chalk” on top, but I have also been proud to have had 50-1 shots on top, a 40-1 single in a Pick-4, an exact Hi-5 with a 10-1 shot on top in the program, among countless others.

My motto, hanging on my wall, reads “Hardly a man is now alive, who paid his mortgage at 3-5.”

That has given me a perspective (in line, I am sure, with the aforementioned others mentioned) that has afforded all of us to sift our way through all of the information listed on a racing program and, sometimes, find a 20-1 or more diamonds among the many, many 7-5 grains of sand.

That is exactly what the handicappers try — and succeed — to do for you.

Still, for the very ambitious, you can try and find your own diamond by constructing your very own morning line.

The Pompano morning line and the handicapping picks in the program were my passion.

I believe there is a bit of a misconception about the morning line, where people think that it shows the makers opinion of what horse that one single person thinks has the best chance of winning.

My belief is that the morning line should show just who the public thinks will win and, therefore, will take the action and be the tote-board favorite.

That’s where the focus shifts from where the conglomerate of bettors believe the betting dollars to flow to your worthy opinion on the “tracer” or “potter” that will get you to the cashier’s window.

Being a stickler about an accurate morning line, each line should land right at the point of the track’s “magic” number, meaning that the odds posted in the program are, indeed, viable and possible to see on a tote board.

What does that mean?

If a track’s takeout on win wagering is, for example, 19 per cent, that track’s magic number is 123, meaning if you take 19 per cent away from the number 123, the remaining result is 99.63.

That number should never be over 100 because the track will pay only the net pool available for the bettors after their takeout. A minus pool could cause the payout to be over 100 per cent, but that is extremely rare.

Over the years, I have seen many morning lines haphazardly thrown together without regard to whether the listed line is even remotely possible on a tote board with some lines as low as 70 and some as high as 180 — the normal being in the 120-124 range.

In these eyes, this is still a spectator sport and the novices may still need a hint to gain some familiarity with wagering procedures.

One night at The Pomp, I was challenged by a gent asking about my handicapping selections and my morning line, which seemed miles apart.

I had made one horse 5-2 in the morning line and the horse I selected was listed at 12.

At post time, the M/L favorite was 9-5 with my selection 9-1, a bit lower than my line, probably because a few of the punters took my program advice.

This is exactly why, if one has the task of both the morning line and the handicapping, always do the morning line first before handicapping so odds do not have any influence on your selection and have every one of your selections 2-1 or 5-2.

Your own morning line can prove to be a huge advantage as far as replays are concerned as I don’t think a computerized morning line has looked at any replays. Of course, another advantage for bettors is visual inspection of a horse on the track during a post parade — a big advantage.

I look for a shiny coat, smooth gait and wiggly ears as signs that the horses get great care and are aware of surroundings and task ahead. I have seen some with droopy ears that look like they don’t have oomph in their step during the post parade.

So, let’s get to work.

To make your own perfect morning line, you need only two things — the takeout on win wagering at your track and the number of horses in a race — that’s it.

Magic numbers can be as high as 129 (a 22 per cent takeout) or as low as 118 (a 15 per cent takeout).

To get to your magic number, the following values (without fractions) are assigned to horses in the following manner: 20-1 = 4 points, 15-1 = 6, 12-1 = 7, 10-1 = 9, 8-1 = 11, 6-1 = 14, 5-1 = 16, 9-2 = 18, 4-1 = 20, 7-2 = 22, 3-1 = 25, 5-2 = 28, 2-1 = 33, 9-5 = 35, 8-5 = 38, 3-2 = 40, 7-5 = 42, 6-5 = 45, 1-1 = 50, 4-5 = 55.

By the way, you get to those numbers in the following manner — as an example 3-1, gets 25 points as 3 plus 1 = 4 and 100 divided by 4 = 25.

The chart above takes care of that for you.

Because of the fractional value of many odds, i.e., 9-2 = 18.18 points or 15-1 = 6.25, bring your (example) 123 morning line down to 121 and the fractional values will bring it up close to the 123 and the net pool pay of 100.

Finally, FYI, to begin your more profitable handicapping strategy, the following states have a morning line magic number of 122 — Ohio, New York (harness), Kentucky, Delaware, Maine, and Indiana. States with a magic number of 120 are New Jersey, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland (tracks with a handle of $600,000) and Pennsylvania. In Maryland, if the handle at a track is under $600,000, the magic number is 124. In California, the morning line magic number is 118 and, in Canada, the number is 120.

Handicapping and making your own morning line is great therapy and the rewards just might be an exhilarating experience, especially on your way to the cashier to collect your ticket on a 15-1 shot.

May The Horse Be With You