Conventional wisdom says he who controls the No. 1 seed in the NBA’s salty Western Conference controls his postseason destiny, right?

Since 1990, a span of 35 NBA Finals, the Wild West has been repped by the top seed 18 different times — most recently in 2023, when a certain Denver team with a pretty good center from Serbia wound up winning the whole thing.

On the other hand, the kids up in the Grading The Week offices are still having a hard time shaking the postseason memories from this past spring out of our collective noggins. And that goes double for May 2019, when it felt as if CJ McCollum, then with Portland, turned up at Ball Arena and couldn’t miss.

We also can’t help wondering if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope might be onto something.

In case you missed it, the former Nuggets guard appeared on Draymond Green’s podcast this past Wednesday and made no bones about why the defending NBA champs spent so much time looking as if they were sleepwalking against the Lakers and Timberwolves: They were, in fact, pooped.

“I feel like that’s where we spent most of our energy and time, trying to get that first-place (seeding),” KCP, who recently signed a free-agent deal with the Orlando Magic, told Green. “We get to the playoffs, we had no gas. We felt like the Lakers should’ve beat us, we (were) down every game.”

Nuggets pushing too hard for a 1 seed — C

Coach Michael Malone almost immediately admitted that he’d pushed the pedal to the metal and rode his stars in April to clinch the top seed, and home court, throughout the Western Conference bracket.

In Malone’s defense, as we noted, the No. 1 seed in the West has reached the NBA Finals since 1990 more than the other seven seeds combined. Plus, the atmosphere and altitude at Ball Arena are traditionally a challenge for opposing teams’ collective lungs and eardrums. The Sixth Man at 5,280 feet rarely fails.

Although “rarely” doesn’t mean “never.” And the last decade of postseason play has started to knock conventional wisdom squarely on its backside.

The bottom-line argument for owning a home-court advantage is being able to play that card in Game 7, to settle a nasty series within friendly confines. Yet since the start of the 2016-17 season, we’ve had 21 non-pandemic Game 7s in the NBA Playoffs. The home teams are 9-12 in those win-or-go-fishing showdowns.

And since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, there’ve been 12 postseason Game 7s. The home team’s gone 4-8. Over the last decade, the Nuggets are 1-2 all-time as Game 7 hosts. It’s enough to make you wonder if fresh legs, come mid-May, are a better arrow to have in your quiver.

Leaner Javonte Williams — A-minus

Full disclosure: Team GTW has always had a soft spot for the Broncos’ big No. 33. So hats off to Williams for admitting recently that he’s gotten a little less big and has fewer, you know, soft spots around the belly.

While Williams credits his coach with the suggestion he slim down to his current fighting weight of 221 pounds, we’ll bet you a Snickers bar, given what we’ve learned of Sean Payton’s (cough) subtlety (cough) when it comes to criticism, that even a little constructive fat-shaming didn’t feel great. But if it gives Broncos Country more runs like the one Williams famously pulled off against Baltimore — we counted four Ravens missed tackles, and at least three defenders carried — in October 2021, we’ll all raise a toast (of water) to no snacks after 7 p.m.

Takis — F

Mind you, the GTW crew is also pretty sure Williams’ agent groaned when his client cited the specific snack brand — Takis — that helped contribute to the running back’s weight gain. Pro athlete rule No. 712: Never throw a company that might hand you a sweet endorsement deal under the nearest bus. Points to Javonte for speaking truths, though, especially if it means more snaps for him and more Habanero Fury Kettlez — this is a real Takis chip, we swear — for the rest of us.

Originally Published: July 27, 2024 at 10:43 a.m.