The Golden State Warriors will be looking to make the NBA Cup knockout stages for the first time in 2024, having failed to make the quarter-finals in the tournament’s debut last season.

A 24-point lead against the Sacramento Kings wasn’t enough in their final group game, with the Warriors capitulating to a defeat which allowed their pacific rivals passage through to the quarter-finals.

Golden State will be out to avenge that loss when the 2024 NBA Cup gets underway against Klay Thompson and the Dallas Mavericks at Chase Center on November 12. In what’s been classed the “group of death”, the Warriors will also host the Memphis Grizzlies before away games against the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets.

In a group that contains the last three Western Conference champions (and two of the last three NBA champions), it’s not difficult to understand how tough it will be for Golden State to advance to the knockout rounds.

But to get greater context on just how much the Warriors can be considered outsiders, one only has to look at the projected win totals for each of the five teams in Western Conference Group C.

Golden State’s over/under win total for next season (per ESPN Bet) has been set at 42.5, three wins behind the second-worst Pelicans at 45.5. The Grizzlies are set for a huge bounce-back at 47.5 wins, while the Mavericks (50.5) and Nuggets (52.5) are each expected to be toward the very top of the conference.

Of course, these NBA Cup games make up just four of an 82-game regular season. A team could foreseeably get hot for a month and win the entire tournament, only to be a mediocre team by the end of the season. The Los Angeles Lakers were the inaugural winners last year, yet finished just seventh in the West overall and were promptly eliminated in the first-round of the playoffs.

But that doesn’t take away from the fact that the Warriors could be in for a very tough time throughout their NBA Cup schedule. They may be considered a 50-50 shot or slightly better in their two home games, but even that’s not a guarantee depending on how the season starts. You’d have to imagine they would be significant outsiders in New Orleans and particularly in Denver who they haven’t beat across seven games in the last two seasons.

Should Warriors fans care at all? Winning these games will be important, but more so for the broader picture of the franchise actually trying to reclaim a playoff position having missed out in finishing 10th last season.