As the best player on arguably the best team in the NBA going into the 2024-25 season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to win his first MVP award by a group of league insiders.

Per a survey of 18 coaches, scouts and executives conducted by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar received seven votes to win the MVP award.

Luka Dončić was a close second with five votes, followed by Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokić and Jayson Tatum receiving two votes each.

The MVP results are interesting because in the same poll Jokić was overwhelmingly voted the league’s best player right now with 15 votes.

There isn’t always perfect overlap between who is regarded as the best player and who wins MVP. Jokić was generally thought of as the league’s best player entering the 2022-23 season, but there was pushback against him winning a third straight MVP award because of the historical precedent and the Denver Nuggets hadn’t won a title at that point.

Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird remain the only players in league history to win three straight MVP awards. Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and LeBron James are the only players to win at least four MVP awards.

Another problem for Jokić is the assumption that Denver could take a step back this season after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency. Jamal Murray also had a rough finish last season, shooting 40.2 percent from the field in 12 playoff games.

The arrow is pointing straight up for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. The No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season managed to upgrade their roster this summer by acquiring Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein.

Gilgeous-Alexander has been a top-five MVP candidate the past two seasons, including a second-place finish to Jokić in 2023-24. He was one of three players to average at least 30 points, five rebounds and five assists per game last season, along with Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Dončić had the best MVP finish of his career last season when he came in third. It was his fifth consecutive top-eight finish in the voting.

Team results can be just as big a factor in the MVP discussion as individual success. Jokić in 2021-22 and Russell Westbrook in 2016-17 are the only players to win the award on a team that didn’t finish in the top three in their conference since Moses Malone in 1981-82.