Gift cards, apparel, accessories and jewelry will be the most popular gifts for holiday 2024.

That’s according to the ICSC Holiday Intentions Survey, which indicates that 58 percent of those Americans shopping for gifts will select gift cards for their families and friends; 52 percent will seek out apparel, accessories and jewelry, and 50 percent will shop for toys, games, sporting goods and goods tied to other hobbies.

Consumers also anticipate giving experiences, with 25 percent of that giving tied to restaurants and dining while 14 percent will go to personal services and 16 percent will be linked to other experiential activities.

While the holiday season isn’t expected to be a blockbuster for retailers, it won’t be bad. The ICSC forecasts that 241 million consumers, 6 million more than in 2023, will be shopping for gifts. The trade organization is also projecting a 3 percent to 3.5 percent retail sales gains this holiday season, which is consistent with projections from other research organizations and retail analysts, generally forecasting 2 to 4 percent gains.

The ICSC survey indicated that 63 percent of those shopping for gifts will first head to discount department stores like Walmart or Target. About half that many — 33 percent — said they will head to traditional department stores such as Macy’s or Nordstrom.

Food and beverage, with a projected 6 percent increase, will outperform retail sales generally, according to the ICSC.

“Consistent with recent years, 78 percent of holiday shoppers plan to start shopping for the holidays earlier than they normally would — and half of those cited early deals and promotions as a top reason,” the ICSC said in a statement. “This year’s survey also showed an increase of 10 percentage points in the number of people who expect to complete their shopping in the first half of December and a decrease of 14 percentage points in those planning to finish in the second half of the month — suggesting a busy spending period in the two weeks following Thanksgiving.”

The ICSC survey, conducted online from Sept. 23 to 25, reached a demographically representative sample of 1,009 U.S. shoppers.

Stephanie Cegielski, ICSC’s vice president of research, told WWD: “This year is going to be a lot like years past. Ninety-two percent plan to spend in a store; 86 percent will also shop online, but only 8 percent will shop strictly online.

“Shoppers are doing both. That’s been a consistent pattern.”

Cegielski said gift cards will once again be the number-one gift. “It’s a trend we have been seeing for awhile. It really started to increase during the pandemic when there were supply chain issues.”

Asked if the completion of the presidential election cycle would impact shopping attitudes, Cegielski said: “I don’t think it will. The number-one concern is the cost of goods.”

Geopolitical factors also weigh on people’s shopping decisions, she added.

Asked what she considered most surprising among the survey’s findings, Cegielski said: “Almost three quarters feel their financial situation is better this year than last year going into the holiday. It definitely feels a little contradictory that inflation will impact purchases but people feel their financial situation is better.”

Nine in 10 holiday shoppers in the survey said inflation will impact their purchases. Thirty-seven percent said they plan to spend more this year, with 42 percent attributing it to higher prices. Holiday shoppers plan to spend an average of $706 on gifts and related items — the most since 2018, according to ICSC.

“This year has shown a more reserved, yet resilient, consumer as an uncertain economic landscape and sensitivity to higher prices have impacted many households,” said ICSC president and chief executive officer Tom McGee, in a statement. “At the same time, falling inflation and steady consumer spending have kept retail sales on solid footing throughout the year, and we anticipate another strong holiday shopping season.”

The ICSC is a trade organization supporting marketplaces and spaces where people shop, dine, work, and play with conferences, opportunities to connect businesses and efforts to shape public policy.