Georgia vs. Alabama football prediction: What the analytics say

Posted by Admin September 24, 2024 Football

The biggest game of the year so far kicks off from Bryant-Denny Stadium this weekend as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 2 Georgia in Kalen DeBoer’s biggest test yet as Nick Saban’s successor.

Bama sits 19th nationally in rushing production and is top-10 in FBS in both scoring offense and defense and coming off an open week that followed its 42-10 thrashing of Wisconsin on the road.

Georgia is the only team in college football yet to allow a touchdown this season, but that should likely change this week, and there’s some concern around productivity on both sides of the ball after playing unranked Kentucky close in a 1-point win two weeks ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models are going with the home team to stay perfect this week.

Alabama is the current favorite on the index, projected to win the game outright in the majority 65.5 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 34.5 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 6.1 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that would be enough for an upset.

That’s because Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -126 and for Alabama at +105 to win outright.

A majority of bets are predicting Alabama will pull off the upset against the Bulldogs.

Almost 6 in 10 bets, or 59 percent, expect the Crimson Tide to either defeat Georgia outright or to stay within the 2.5 points.

The other 41 percent of wagers suggest that Georgia will win the game and cover the spread.

Georgia is projected to defeat Alabama by an implied score of 26 to 24 when taking the point spread and total into consideration, not covering the spread and hitting the over.

Alabama is second among SEC teams with an 82.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11 games, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Georgia will win 9 games and has a 70.9 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, ranking fifth in the SEC.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses