It will take the world some time to fully grasp how the US President, Donald Trump, managed to impose a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal on Israel – not from any ideological or moral opposition to the war, but from a narcissistic desire to demonstrate that he alone commands the American empire and will decide when the war ends. 

This comes after 15 months of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu skillfully manipulating the Biden administration, leading many around the world to wonder how Tel Aviv managed to dictate its genocidal policies in Gaza to the US, ultimately contributing to the Democrats’ election loss. 

Now, we must wait and see how the Trump administration chooses to reward Israel and Netanyahu.

While the Israeli public is still struggling to process how, within a week, Israel was forced to accept the same deal that the Biden administration proposed last spring – raising questions about why the war continued, ‘sacrificing soldiers’ lives’ and endangering the hostages – the more painful realisation is that none of Israel’s original war objectives were achieved. 

Israel failed to dismantle Hamas or even significantly weaken its military capabilities. In the end, Israel was forced to sign a deal with Hamas, and there is no foreseeable scenario in which Hamas will not remain a presence in Gaza. 

The military campaign did not bring back the hostages, despite Israel completely destroying Gaza. More critically, Israel’s strategic position in the world is now worse than it was at the war’s outset, with the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant; Israeli soldiers and officers being accused of war crimes globally; and the Palestinian issue returning to the forefront.

This means that any discussions of normalisation with Arab and Muslim states must now seriously address Palestinian demands.

Precarious position

Netanyahu now finds himself in a precarious position. He bet on Trump in the last election, hoping a Republican administration would be more amenable to attacking Iran, thus allowing him to present an “absolute victory” to his voters by striking Iranian nuclear facilities after weakening Hezbollah’s military capabilities and undermining Iran’s presence in Syria. 

Instead, he faces a reality where he must sign a deal that requires an Israeli withdrawal from the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors in Gaza, alongside the release of Palestinian prisoners. 

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Meanwhile, far-right ministers and Knesset members from his Likud party and other right-wing factions, who had fantasised about and actively pushed for the reestablishment of settlements in Gaza, are now forced to accept that if the second phase of the deal is implemented and the army withdraws from northern Gaza, their dreams will be permanently shattered.

Adding to Netanyahu’s challenges, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who  resigned from government on Sunday, and other Knesset members have been asserting that their goal was never about retrieving hostages or ending the war – it was about conquest, expulsion and settlement expansion. 

The Palestinian narrative will be one of survival and resilience. A whole generation has been shaped by this war, and it will not disappear

But contrary to the beliefs of the Israeli right and those worldwide who view Israel as an omnipotent force, the reality remains: there are still around two million Palestinians in Gaza. Hamas continues to fight, despite Israel’s barbaric tactics, including attempts to starve children. Israel has ultimately failed in its quest to conquer, expel and settle.

Israel’s response to this failure has been a further shift to the right. Defence Minister Israel Katz has moved to dismantle all administrative detention orders against Jewish extremists, demanding their release as part of a compensation package for Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to encourage him not to leave the coalition. 

This highlights the Israeli government’s current logic: preserving the coalition and avoiding elections at any cost, even as internal crises escalate – including growing tensions with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, Netanyahu’s corruption trial, the looming ICC proceedings, and the resurgence of protests from hostage families.

Medieval brutality

Regionally, Netanyahu promised to restore Israel’s deterrence and push for the “de-radicalisation” of Palestinians, expecting his state’s overwhelming response to force them into submission. Instead, Israel’s brutality has exposed a level of barbarism reminiscent of medieval armies, raising fundamental moral questions about an Israeli society that justifies starving civilians and blocking humanitarian aid for military objectives. 

Since the war began, discussions of genocide within Israel have not abated. Now, the Israeli government is advising its soldiers to avoid travelling abroad and to conceal their identities – not because world governments have taken decisive action against the genocide, but because global public opinion has witnessed Israel’s barbarism. Israel has become a pariah state, and its citizens are facing the consequences.

The Israeli right’s refusal to compromise with the Palestinian Authority – even as the PA cooperated with Israel in the occupied West Bank throughout the genocide – has solidified its unpopularity among Palestinians, while Hamas has emerged as the faction that achieved its war objectives. 

Hamas survived, remains Gaza’s dominant force, secured a prisoner exchange deal, and fought until the end without surrendering. 

Despite the biblical-scale catastrophe in Gaza – the territory’s destruction and humanitarian tragedy – Netanyahu now understands that the Palestinian narrative will be one of survival and resilience. A whole generation has been shaped by this war, and it will not disappear. 

With the ceasefire, every serious journalist in the world now dreams of entering Gaza – to see, document, and try to comprehend what transpired. More questions will arise, and more reports will be written about Israel’s war crimes. 

In the end, Israel’s madness has yielded no victory – not military, not politically for Netanyahu, and certainly not in shaping global perceptions of Israel.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.