‘Progress made… but could still fall apart’

Since early January, indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States have resumed in Doha to strike a ceasefire deal that would facilitate the release of dozens of hostages still held in Gaza.

Four officials acknowledged that progress has been made and said the coming days would be critical for ending more than 15 months of fighting that has destabilised the Middle East. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the talks.

A US official briefed on the negotiations said all sides are “closer than we’ve ever been, but it could still fall apart.” The official declined to predict the timing of a potential agreement because he said it is just too uncertain, with multiple moving parts still in play.

Two other officials, including one associated with Hamas, said that there were still a number of hurdles to clear. On several occasions over the past year, US leaders have said that they were on the verge of reaching a deal, only to have the talks stall.

Another person familiar with the talks said there had been a breakthrough overnight and that there was a proposed deal on the table. Israeli and Hamas negotiators will now take it back to their leaders for final approval, the person said.

The person said that mediators from the Gulf country of Qatar had put renewed pressure on Hamas to accept the agreement, while Witkoff was pressing the Israelis after recently joined the negotiations. The person said that the mediators had handed off the draft deal to each side and that the next 24 hours would be pivotal.

An Egyptian official said that there had been good progress overnight, but that it would likely take a few more days, and that the sides were aiming for a deal before Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. A third official said that the talks were in a good place, but hadn’t been wrapped up. That official also assessed that a deal was possible before the inauguration.

Asked about the talks at a press conference, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said “progress has been made, and I hope that within a short time we will see things happening. But it is still to be proved.”

A Hamas official said a number of contentious issues still need to be resolved, including an Israeli commitment to ending the war and details about the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the hostage-prisoner exchange. The official wasn’t authorized to brief media and spoke anonymously.

The Egyptian official confirmed that those issues were still being discussed.

Months of negotiations have repeatedly stalled

The Biden administration, along with Egypt and Qatar, has spent more than a year trying to broker an agreement to end the deadliest war ever fought between Israelis and Palestinians and secure the release of scores of hostages captured in Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which triggered the conflict.

But the sides have been divided over the details of the planned exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, as well as the nature of the ceasefire itself. Hamas has said that it won’t release the remaining captives without an end to the war, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to continue the campaign until “total victory” over the militant group.

Under discussion now is a phased ceasefire. Netanyahu has repeatedly signaled that he is committed only to the first phase, a partial hostage release in exchange for a weekslong halt in fighting. The possibility of a lasting ceasefire and other issues would be negotiated after the first phase begins. Hamas has demanded a full withdrawal and complete end to the war, and is hoping that this first phase will lead to that outcome.