Florida State is in the middle of a three-game losing streak, and they hit the road looking to get back on track. Wednesday’s loss against Virginia Tech was easily their worst of the season and basically guaranteed that they can’t make the NCAA Tournament, barring some kind of miraculous ACC Tournament run. But there is still plenty to play for.

Boston College has one ACC win this season, and it was against Miami, so I’m not sure it even counts. For pride’s sake, FSU cannot drop this game, but they’ll likely find a way to make it closer than it needs to be.

This game will be on Saturday, February 1, at 2 p.m. EST on the ACC Network live from the Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

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Boston College has lost six straight games, but they’re coming off an overtime loss in Chapel Hill to UNC. They had that game won, too, leading 89-85 with 26 seconds remaining, but they had two turnovers in the final 13 seconds of the second half, allowing UNC to tie it up, and they’d be outscored 13-6 in overtime.

The one thing that will make Boston College tricky is the hiring of Steve Smith this offseason, who was an assistant coach at FSU for the last five seasons. He’ll know every little in and out of FSU’s defensive scheme, so BC could have some exploits to counter Florida State’s pressure. But Boston College isn’t that talented.

This is a similar theme to Virginia Tech in that BC is a decent three-point shooting and rebounding team, but they don’t do much else. They don’t force many turnovers, teams light them up from three, they foul a lot, don’t score well on the inside, and while they shoot the ball well from the perimeter, they take just 18 threes per game, one of the lowest rates in the country.

Leading the way in scoring is Donald Hand Jr., who has taken a MASSIVE step forward from last season and could be in the running for the ACC’s Most Improved Player. He’s up to 14.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG after just 5.0 PPG and 1.9 RPG last season. He’s become an elite shooter, shooting 39% on high volume from behind the three-point line and 90% from the free-throw line. When he’s made just one three-pointer in a game, BC is 0-5, so that’s something to watch. But I’d expect FSU to do everything possible to get the ball out of Hand’s hands.

The frontcourt of Chad Venning and Elijah Strong hasn’t been terrible, with Venning averaging 13.0 PPG and Strong averaging 10.5 PPG, but they’re both weirdly bad defensive rebounders, as Hand gobbles up most of them. Strong is a decent three-point shooter and has taken the second-most threes on the team.

Dion Brown and Joshua Beadle have had positive impacts in conference play, but they won’t be a primary defensive focus. Hand, Brown, Beadle, and Fred Payne are all shooting above 40% from three in conference play, but Hand and Payne are really the only ones who take them with any kind of volume. Those are the five players you’ll need to know for BC.

It’s hard to describe how poorly Florida State played in the first half against Virginia Tech on Wednesday night. Even just saying they had 15 points at halftime still doesn’t quite do it. Malique Ewin was visibly frustrated from the opening tip, leading to a long stretch on the bench for him. He missed a few easy layups right at the rim, and Virginia Tech made a concerted effort to make sure he didn’t get the ball. That left Ewin disinterested, and he made some poor decisions on the defensive end because of it. He has to be better, focused on making everyone around him better. If that happens, everything else opens up around him.

Chandler Jackson also needs to be reinserted into the starting lineup asap. He made a noticeable difference when he came into the game after missing two games with a groin injury. Coach Hamilton tends not to change lineups around once someone returns from injury, but Jackson does so many things better than Justin Thomas, who has two points in his last four games combined.

The depth of this team was overblown. There are a lot of talented freshmen who are likely a year or two away from being able to provide quality minutes, but the transfers haven’t been tremendous, and most of the freshmen, outside of Daquan Davis, aren’t ready yet. AJ Swinton was starting to figure things out before he went down with his injury, but I just watched Christian Nitu take a one-dribble pull-up three early in the shot clock, and that’s maddening.

READ MORE: FSU Basketball embarrassed at home by Virginia Tech, 76-66

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Boston College

G: Joshua Beadle
G: Dion Brown
G: Donald Hand Jr.
F: Elijah Strong
C: Chad Venning

Offense Needs to Wake Up

Florida State’s offensive put on a pitiful performance on Wednesday against Virginia Tech, making it three straight games that the offense hasn’t been able to do much. FSU has always been a defensive-minded team first, but it’s hard to win games when the offense puts up 15 points in a half.

Get to the Free-Throw Line

The easiest way for Florida State’s offense to get back on track is to get back to the line. They shot a bunch of free throws against Stanford but shot just five against Cal and 12 against Virginia Tech. Boston College sends teams to the line a lot. When they allow a free-throw rate above 33.3%, BC is just 3-9, compared to 6-2 when allowing a FTR of 33.3% or less.

Keep Boston College Off the Glass

Similar to the free-throw rate, the offensive rebounding rate means a lot to BC’s success or lack of. They come down with more than 30% of available offensive rebounds, they’re 7-2, compared to 2-9 when they’re below 30%. It’s not any specific player to watch for on the glass, as six different players average between 1.0 and 1.8 offensive rebounds per game.

Florida State opened as 5.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 144.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Maybe I’m insane for thinking Florida State will win this game, but Boston College isn’t that good. Even if they have a scouting advantage with a former FSU assistant on staff, the Seminoles’ talent advantage is so severe. It’ll likely be closer than necessary, but Florida State has to win this game, even if they haven’t had a lot of success playing at Boston College in recent years.

Florida State 80, Boston College 73

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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