Freshman Sire Watch: Who are the hottest sires right now?
The 2024 freshman sire crop has now made over 1,600 starts, so more trends are starting to develop. Overall, 853 2-year-olds sired by freshman sires have won 214 races from 1,602 starts.
Vekoma, Complexity, Tiz the Law lead the way
Vekoma and Complexity continue to lead the way in terms of winners and wins, but Tiz the Law is catching up. Vekoma leads all freshman sires with 18 winners, followed by Complexity with 13 and Tiz the Law with 10.
Who are the hottest sires the last six weeks?
In our July 28 Freshman Sire Watch report six weeks ago, Vekoma was second on the list with 11 wins. But he has now taken the lead from Complexity in terms of winners and wins.
In the last six weeks, Vekoma starters have won 8 of 37 starts, or 21.6 percent, while Complexity returned to a more average win percentage of 11.1 percent, winning four of 36 starts. Thousand Words also cooled off a bit, winning four of 33 starts, good for 12 percent.
Tiz the Law has been one of the hottest sires of late, winning 8 of 29 starts, or 27.6 percent. Bodexpress offspring also have done well of late, but with a small sample, winning four of eight starts in the last six weeks. Overall, Bodexpress has had only 13 starters, but six of them have won for a 46.2 percent rate.
Which sires have the highest percentage of winners?
From freshman sires with at least four winners, leading the way is Event Driven who is 4-for-4 as all his starters found the winners circle. Next is Caracaro with 62.5 percent, with five winners from eight starters, followed by Shancelot with 50 percent, from four winners out of eight starters. And Promises Fullfilled has four winners from nine starters, good for 44.4 percent. But those are all extremely small sample sizes.
Next on the list is Vekoma at 41.8 percent, with 18 winners from 43 starters followed by Tiz the Law with 38.5 percent and 10 winners from 26 starters. Complexity is close behind those two with 38.2 percent, given 13 winners from 34 starters.
Below is the complete list of freshman sires with four starts or more.
Freshman sires as of Monday
| Unique horses | All starts | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sire | Horses | Winners | % | Starts | W | P | S | Win% |
| Vekoma | 43 | 18 | 42% | 69 | 19 | 7 | 11 | 28% |
| Complexity | 34 | 13 | 38% | 70 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 24% |
| Tiz the Law | 26 | 10 | 38% | 55 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 22% |
| Thousand Words | 31 | 9 | 29% | 66 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 18% |
| Volatile | 28 | 9 | 32% | 49 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 18% |
| War of Will | 38 | 8 | 21% | 65 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 12% |
| Instagrand | 40 | 6 | 15% | 70 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 9% |
| McKinzie | 34 | 6 | 18% | 54 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 13% |
| Global Campaign | 30 | 6 | 20% | 52 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 12% |
| Echo Town | 16 | 6 | 38% | 34 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18% |
| Win Win Win | 17 | 6 | 35% | 32 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25% |
| Bodexpress | 13 | 6 | 46% | 28 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25% |
| Improbable | 38 | 5 | 13% | 77 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9% |
| Authentic | 43 | 5 | 12% | 77 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 6% |
| Honor A. P. | 22 | 5 | 23% | 45 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 11% |
| Caracaro | 8 | 5 | 63% | 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28% |
| Spun to Run | 24 | 4 | 17% | 46 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9% |
| Tom’s d’Etat | 23 | 4 | 17% | 44 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 11% |
| Promises Fulfilled | 9 | 4 | 44% | 23 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17% |
| Instilled Regard | 11 | 4 | 36% | 19 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21% |
| Shancelot | 8 | 4 | 50% | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 27% |
| Event Driven | 4 | 4 | 100% | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 40% |
| Gift Box | 21 | 3 | 14% | 36 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 8% |
| Yorkton | 10 | 3 | 30% | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14% |
| Game Winner | 28 | 2 | 7% | 52 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6% |
| Higher Power | 16 | 2 | 13% | 32 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6% |
| Maximum Security | 21 | 2 | 10% | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7% |
| Isotherm | 10 | 2 | 20% | 22 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9% |
| Barkley | 8 | 2 | 25% | 16 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19% |
| Runaway Ghost | 10 | 2 | 20% | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14% |
| Phantom Boss | 3 | 2 | 67% | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23% |
| Country House | 6 | 2 | 33% | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18% |
| Bahjatty | 2 | 2 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 40% |
| Honest Mischief | 18 | 1 | 6% | 26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4% |
| American Anthem | 9 | 1 | 11% | 19 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5% |
| King for a Day | 9 | 1 | 11% | 16 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6% |
| Timeline | 6 | 1 | 17% | 16 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6% |
| Curlin’s Honor | 10 | 1 | 10% | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14% |
| Aurelius Maximus | 8 | 1 | 13% | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21% |
| Gunnevera | 7 | 1 | 14% | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% |
| Lone Sailor | 5 | 1 | 20% | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% |
| Imperial Hint | 5 | 1 | 20% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 25% |
| Potomac River | 2 | 1 | 50% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14% |
| Bobby’s Wicked One | 2 | 1 | 50% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14% |
| Rowayton | 5 | 1 | 20% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14% |
| Without Parole (GB) | 3 | 1 | 33% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20% |
| Blueblood | 3 | 1 | 33% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20% |
| Tough Sunday | 2 | 1 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25% |
| Name Changer | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33% |
| Pioneerof the West | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33% |
| Sweetontheladies | 2 | 1 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33% |
| Calculator | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33% |
| Mr. Money | 10 | 0 | 0% | 21 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0% |
| Speightsong | 7 | 0 | 0% | 19 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
| Fog of War | 7 | 0 | 0% | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Heartwood | 5 | 0 | 0% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Air Strike | 2 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Dak Attack | 2 | 0 | 0% | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Bravazo | 4 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Count Alexander | 2 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Prime Attraction | 2 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Speculating | 1 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Oscar Nominated | 2 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Giant Expectations | 2 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Durango Kid | 1 | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
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