What the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes on Saturday at Kentucky Downs lacks in depth, with no graded-stakes winners among the 16 entered, it certainly makes up for in competitiveness. The morning-line favorite is 4-1, and no horse is more than 20-1 on Nick Tammaro’s line.
And besides, to borrow a phrase from Pennsylvania’s own Gertrude Stein, a Grade 1 is a Grade 1 is a Grade 1. Thankfully, as handicappers, we don’t need to borrow another one of her famous soliloquies, “There ain’t no answer; there ain’t gonna be an answer; there never has been an answer. That’s the answer.” We all know horseplayers have the hubris to try to figure this out.
One of the most important things to note about Kentucky Downs is that the first week of the meet played to speed, with 18 of the 33 winners coming on the front end. That trend was even more pronounced sprinting.
It’s been four days since the last race on Sunday, so I’m always nervous about the course maintenance and weather and rail placement during workouts that we don’t know about in that time. But regardless, it’s safe to assume that speed is at least not a negative.
That makes Apollo Ten most interesting to me, as his early Brisnet Pace Ratings are the kinds of numbers you often see in dirt sprints. He is one of the few stakes winners in this field, and that came in a gate-to-wire effort at Monmouth Park.
His last at Saratoga is not good enough to win this, but the 6-1 morning-line price would be more than acceptable given my 9-2 fair odds. I keep mentioning the morning line because Kentucky Downs’s was the most accurate last week of all tracks running. That’s an incredible feat given the field sizes there.
A wildcard for me, and I’m guessing most bettors, in this race is Evade, whose win in his 3-year-old debut at Epsom earned a robust 121 Brisnet Class Rating. No one else in this field has an average Class Rating above 116, but Evade seemingly has gone backward in two subsquent tries albeit almost certainly against better.
What interests me most, though, is that Evade clearly has a forward style. With the inside draw, he could prove formidable against a group in which Evade is the only entrant who has even competed in a Grade or Group 1 race.
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