Five NBA teams have won the Western Conference in the last five years, marking a half-decade of competitive parity in a league that’s making it increasingly difficult to stay on top after arriving there.

The Nuggets are one of those five. They were thwarted in the second round of the playoffs last season, bringing an abrupt end to their pursuit of a repeat championship before they even had a chance to challenge the Boston Celtics. Can they bounce back and make it out of the West this season? Here are four reasons Denver will — and won’t — return to the NBA Finals in 2025.

Why the Nuggets will make 2025 NBA Finals

1. Nikola Jokic primed to win fourth MVP: In a star-driven league, Denver has shown no signs of slowing down. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are popular preseason picks to collect the Michael Jordan Trophy. But if Jokic repeats? He would join LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Jordan himself as the only four-time MVPs in NBA history. This is the bottom line: As long as the Serbian center continues to play at an all-time great level, the Nuggets are on the short list of teams that can win the championship.

2. The core four: It’s not all Jokic. Sure, the Nuggets lost a valuable starter in free agency this summer. The dominance of Denver’s championship starting unit is nothing more than a bittersweet memory now. That is until you check out some four-man lineup statistics. When Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon were on the court together last season (1,070 minutes), the Nuggets outscored opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions. No other team had a four-man group post a net rating over 13 in even 700 minutes together. This quartet is the most efficient in the sport at generating easy buckets in the paint, and it helps that Murray and Porter combined to shoot 40.8% from three last season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was Denver’s fifth-best player. The four best remain.

3. Second-unit upgrades: Backup point guard and backup center were significant weak spots on Denver’s roster by the end of last season. Reggie Jackson’s once-bright flame extinguished, and Michael Malone couldn’t trust anyone other than Gordon to anchor Jokic’s rest minutes during the playoffs. Gordon admitted to feeling exhausted after Denver’s season-ending Game 7 loss. So Calvin Booth brought in Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric with limited spending money in his pocket. Success is never guaranteed from the clearance aisle, but with these two free agents, Denver checked some boxes. At minimum, Westbrook and Saric should be productive regular-season rotation players who alleviate pressure and minutes from Jokic, Murray and Gordon. A better-rested team will be a more dangerous one in the playoffs.

4. Defensive development: This is the year Booth’s unwavering belief in his draft picks can elevate the Nuggets. The defensive trajectory of Christian Braun and Peyton Watson has been delectable so far. Now, both enter their third season poised for increased responsibility. The Nuggets won the 2023 title with the league’s 15th-ranked defense. They improved to eighth last season. If Braun and Watson take the next step, they should be two of the three best defenders on the roster to complement Gordon. Denver should stay in the top 10, even without KCP.

Why the Nuggets won’t make it back to NBA Finals

1. Loss of KCP is too much to overcome: On the other hand, Caldwell-Pope was experienced, durable and dependable in a variety of matchups. Replacing him is a heavy burden, perhaps too heavy for a player as young as Braun. And what about the ripple effect on the bench after a solid role player is promoted? Caldwell-Pope’s chemistry with Jokic in pick-and-roll coverage was a major asset for the Nuggets. He was a pest at the point of attack. He was a coveted teammate. And it didn’t hurt that he shot 41.5% from 3-point range during his time in Denver.

2. Durability remains issue for Murray: Rinse, repeat. If the Nuggets’ championship hopes boil down to any one thing, it’s Murray’s health. In his two most recent fully healthy postseasons (2020 and 2023), Denver went to the Western Conference Finals or further. In the two most recent postseasons that he missed entirely, Denver didn’t win a single game after the first round. And when he played at less than 100% health in 2024, he struggled to get separation as a ballhandler, his shooting percentages suffered and the Nuggets were a second-round out. The Nuggets don’t just need Murray to be on the court. They need him to be dynamic and unbothered by injuries. They were 16-2 when he scored 25 points or more last season and 8-9 when he was held to 17 or fewer.