A basketball and football are shaped differently, but the way they bounce can have the same impact on how a team feels about itself. During the fall, the pigskin tumbled just the way BYU football hoped it would, but this winter, with men’s basketball, the sphere has been much more erratic.

Both rosters are talented, both have good coaches, and both face challenging foes, but using the last two seasons as indicators, the difference between winning and losing may have less to do with grand strategies and more do with the simplicity of how the ball bounces.

Each of BYU’s nine Power Four victories last fall had moments of game-changing good fortune where the ball just bounced its way.

Football’s good bounces

Against SMU, the Mustangs fumbled at the 7-yard line early in the fourth quarter when Brashard Smith inexplicably tried to pitch the ball to a teammate while being tackled. BYU’s Jakob Robinson jumped on it to preserve the Cougars’ 15-12 lead.

During BYU’s Big 12 opener against No. 13 Kansas State, Jack Kelly forced a fumble just before halftime and the ball hopped into the arms of freshman Tommy Prassas, who returned it 30 yards for the go-ahead touchdown.

The good fortune continued in the third quarter when Parker Kingston dropped a punt. As the Wildcats converged, the loose ball bounced right back up into Kingston’s arms at the 9-yard line, and he proceeded to run for a touchdown.

The sophomore from Roy, Utah, scored because of his speed and the blocking from his teammates, but had the ball bounced to the right or left, the story might have had a much different ending.

On the road at Baylor, defensive tackle Blake Mangelson intercepted a deflected ball, Sam Vander Haar ran 22 yards on a perfectly executed fake punt, and Crew Wakley sealed the game with a dramatic interception.

Against Oklahoma State, Jake Retzlaff hit Darius Lassiter for a 35-yard touchdown with 10 seconds remaining to win the game 38-35.

The following week against Arizona, Robinson opened the second half by deflecting Noah Fifita’s pass in the back field and then intercepting it to set up a touchdown and give BYU a 21-7 lead.

On the road at UCF, the Cougars executed a fake field goal where the holder, Vander Haar, pitched the ball between his legs to kicker Will Ferrin, who ran for a first down. Just before halftime, in a tight 17-10 game, Retzlaff threw a 62-yard touchdown to Chase Roberts to break the game open.

At Utah, the Utes were flagged for defensive holding after sacking Retzlaff at the goal line on fourth down with 1:22 to play. A few plays later, Roberts made a fingertip catch at midfield and Ferrin capped the drive with a 44-yard field goal with four seconds left to win the game 22-21.

The ball continued to bounce BYU’s way against Houston when Talan Alfrey scooped up an onside kick and ran 58 yards for a touchdown.

At the Alamo Bowl, with BYU leading 20-0, Colorado turned the ball over on its first possession of the second half when Tanner Wall hit the Buffaloes receiver so hard that the ball popped out and a diving Evan Johnson pulled it in for an interception.

The Cougars’ 11-2 season had very few moments when things didn’t go their way, with Kansas as the exception. A pouch punt that deflected off Johnson’s helmet to set up the Jayhawks’ game-winning touchdown was a bad bounce indeed.

Basketball’s bad bounces

Bad bounces have abounded throughout BYU basketball’s six defeats. A missed shot at the end of regulation against Ole Miss on Thanksgiving gave the Rebels a new life in overtime, where they pulled away 96-85.

At Providence, the Cougars couldn’t buy a basket while the Friars held a case lot sale behind the 3-point line. Providence made 12 of 22 while BYU missed 18 of 25 in a one-sided defeat.

The Cougars rolled into Houston as the Big 12’s leading rebounders, but they could not get ahold of the bouncing ball. The hometown Cougars grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and amassed 18 second-chance points in an 86-55 thrashing.

During a nail-biter at home against Texas Tech, BYU trailed 67-64 with 1:03 to play when it allowed an offensive rebound that turned into two points. Then, the Cougars turned the ball over, which led to a free throw. BYU then missed a 3-point shot and the Red Raiders turned that into two more free throws at the other end and escaped Provo with a 72-67 win.

On the road at TCU, the game was tied at 67 with 1:13 remaining when the Cougars’ final five possessions resulted in a missed dunk, a turnover, a missed layup and two missed 3-point shots in a 71-67 defeat.

Saturday night at Utah, the Cougars sent a fifth-year senior and 78% free-throw shooter to the foul line with six seconds left and he missed the front end of a one-and-one in a 73-72 overtime defeat. BYU’s projected NBA lottery pick then attempted a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Neither shot came close.

Last year, with a myriad of bad bounces, football went 5-7 while basketball basked in an abundance of good fortune and reached the NCAA Tournament. This year, with a few better bounces, football finished 11-2. Basketball is trending in the other direction at 11-6 with 14 more games to play.

Kevin Young’s roster is as talented and his staff is as deep as BYU has ever been. Clearly, that alone is not enough to win in the Big 12 and especially on the road. The Cougars need to get better in so many areas — and fast.

What they don’t need is to hold their breath for a miracle to get where they want to go. The potential is there to pull it off, but it would sure make things easier if the ball they play with started bouncing BYU’s way a little more often.

Dave McCann is a sportswriter and columnist for the Deseret News and is a play-by-play announcer and show host for BYUtv/ESPN+. He co-hosts “Y’s Guys” at ysguys.com and is the author of the children’s book “C is for Cougar,” available at deseretbook.com.