There’s an adage about NFL coaches that has seemingly always proven true: They are hired to be fired.

Or forcibly retired.

Or parted ways with.

Greats Like Shula And Belichick Were Fired

It’s true. If job security is the goal, don’t be an NFL head coach because, remember, Don Shula was forced into retirement in 1996 by the Miami Dolphins, Bill Belichick was sent packing by the New England Patriots in 2024, and Andy Reid was fired by the Philadelphia Eagles after the 2012 season.

These three have won nearly 1,000 NFL games in representing three of the four winningest coaches in league history – including Shula who has the most wins, and Belichick, who is second.

And all three were basically fired at some point – Belichick twice if you include Cleveland.

So what chance do Liam Cohen, Brian Schottenheimer, Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Glenn have as the most recently hired NFL coaches?

Well, very little.

History is against them. And history must have a great defense and a premier quarterback, because history is experienced at beating down NFL coaches.

Saints Coach Hire Looming

Just look at the list of NFL coaches hired this decade. There have been 35 head coaches hired by teams since 2020. And 18 of those have already been fired.

That means 51 percent of the coaches hired this decade, including two last season, have already been dismissed. 

The Seventh Calvary had a lower casualty rate at the Battle of Little Bighorn.

And into this statistical fray enter six new coaching hires this cycle, with another one looming when the New Orleans Saints finally get around to hiring Kellen Moore or somebody else.

We welcome the new coaches of the Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets to their new posts. And we tell them the odds are most will be dust in the wind before this decade is out.

So which one?

Who goes first? You should understand that NFL teams have hired coaches and fired those same coaches within one year each of the last four seasons.

So do any of these new hires keep that skid alive by getting fired in January 2026 or even sooner?

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History Is Undefeated Against NFL Coaches

History says it’s possible. So, rather than grade each hire, which most media do – fully expecting we’ll never read the material a year or two down the road – we’re going to gauge each new hire’s survival rate, least to best.

Here goes:

6. Pete Carroll: This is obvious. He doesn’t have a quarterback or a high enough pick to get one this year. He plays in a division against teams that have Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert and even Bo Nix, who is in Denver. This is a problem, particularly with expectations being high from the start. It also doesn’t help that Carroll is already 73 years old. And if you look, the Raiders under owner Mark Davis have been a meat grinder for head coaches, with the team having four full-time or interim coaches since 2021. 

5. Liam Coen: He’s not exactly bringing a stable history to the Jaguars, as they are his fifth different coaching job since 2020. And he’s marrying an organization that has now had four different head coaches since 2020. So this is Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton getting together. It would be surprising if it lasts.

4. Brian Schottenheimer: Jerry Jones hired him with the stated goal of keeping continuity within the organization, especially on offense. Why? That continuity has helped deliver some nice regular-season performances, but not much in the way of postseason satisfaction. Schottenheimer is the son of the outstanding Marty Schottenheimer and that gives him some juice. But he’s a rookie head coach stepping into perhaps the most obstacle-filled assignment. He has to win or he’s out in two seasons, tops.

FLORHAM PARK, NEW JERSEY – JANUARY 27: New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey are introduced to the media at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center on January 27, 2025 in Florham Park, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Getty Images)

Mike Vrabel Has Most Staying Power

3. Aaron Glenn: Another rookie head coach who intends to be the leader of the franchise. That’s a good start because Glenn has the authenticity to make it work. But he doesn’t have the talent at quarterback because even if he keeps Aaron Rodgers, that’s a one-year answer at most. After that begins the search for the guy who can compete against Josh Allen at the top of the division and probably Drake Maye developing quickly. This is a rough assignment. Woody Johnson gave Robert Saleh three full seasons of losing before hitting the ejector switch in the fourth season. Expect at least that much time for Glenn.

2. Ben Johnson: He was hired as an offensive Sherpa to guide quarterback Caleb Williams to the top of the NFC North mountain. It can happen. The Lions have suffered some brain drain on their coaching staff, and we have no clue if the Vikings will be good or not because we don’t know if J.J. McCarthy will be good or not. The Bears should be competitive and that will keep Johnson around for years.

1. Mike Vrabel: We know what he can do with talent and the Patriots are in a great spot to add a ton of talent with all their high picks and enormous salary cap reservoir. Add that to Drake Maye’s development, and Vrabel’s demand for discipline and toughness, and you have an up-and-coming team. And up-and-coming teams don’t fire their coaches very quickly.

In case you’re interested, here’s the list we previously mentioned of coaches hired (and some fired) this decade:

Kevin Stefanski is a “Madden” fan. (Credit: Getty Images)

Stefanski Only One To Survive

2020

1. Matt Rhule (Panthers) fired 2022.
2. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) fired 2025.
3. Kevin Stefanski (Browns).
4. Joe Judge (Giants) fired 2022.
5. Ron Rivera (Washington Football Team) fired 2024.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell gave an awesome speech after beating the Packers. Watch a video of his locker room speech. (Credit: Getty Images)

Five Of Seven From 2021 Gone 

2021:

1. Arthur Smith (Falcons) fired 2024.
2. David Culley (Texans) fired 2022.
3. Brandon Staley (Chargers) fired 2023.
4. Urban Meyer (Jaguars) fired 2021.
5. Rober Saleh (Jets) fired 2024.
6. Dan Campbell (Lions).
7. Nick Sirianni (Eagles).

Texans One And Done With Lovie

2022:

1. Lovie Smith (Texans) fired 2023.
2. Matt Eberflus (Bears) fired 2024.
3. Doug Pederson (Jaguars) fired 2025.
4. Brian Daboll (Giants).
5. Kevin O’Connell (Vikings).
6. Mike McDaniel (Dolphins).
7. Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos) fired 2022.
8. Dennis Allen (Saints) fired 2024.
9. Josh McDaniels (Raiders) fired 2023.
10. Todd Bowles (Bucanneers).

DeMeco Ryans understands quarterbacks are very important.

Reich Didn’t Last Even One Season

2023:

1. Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals).
2. Frank Reich (Panthers) Fired 2023.
3. Sean Payton (Broncos).
4. DeMeco Ryans (Texans).
5. Shane Steichen (Colts).

Feb 5, 2024; Ashburn, VA, USA; Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn (M) poses for a picture with Commanders managing partner Josh Harris (L) and Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters (R) at an introductory press conference at Commanders Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Two One-And-Done Coaches From 2024

2024:

1. Raheem Morris (Falcons).
2. Dave Canales (Panthers).
3. Antonio Pierce (Raiders) fired in 2025.
4. Jim Harbaugh (Chargers).
5. Jerod Mayo (Patriots) fired 2025.
6. Mike Macdonald (Seahawks).
7. Brian Callahan (Titans).
8. Dan Quinn (Commanders).