The February jobs report is expected to show hiring picked up in February, while the unemployment rate held steady. This comes at a crucial moment for markets as stocks have recently been floundering amid fears about economic growth weakening in the US.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 160,000 in February, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In January, the US economy added 143,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4%.
With markets in a slump — amid a string of weaker-than-expected economic growth data — Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser told Yahoo Finance that Friday’s jobs report is a “pretty significant risk to the market.”
“A good jobs print helps, but it’s probably not enough to sort things out,” Kaiser said. “And if you got a weak print, let’s say below 125,000 jobs [added], or in particular, if the unemployment rate rose, I think you would have a pretty big pullback in US equities in response to that.”
Kaiser added that options pricing shows an implied move in the S&P 500 of either 1.3% up or down, marking the largest projected move in the index off a jobs report in two years.
Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:
Nonfarm payrolls: +160,000 vs. +143,000 in January
Unemployment rate: 4.0% vs. 4.0% in January
Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.5%
Average hourly earnings, year over year: +4.1% vs. +4.1%
Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.1 in January.
^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC
A strong January jobs report had investors betting the Federal Reserve wouldn’t need to cut interest rates anytime soon, but recent data has flipped that narrative. In recent weeks, economic data has shown a decline in consumer spending, retail sales, manufacturing activity, and construction spending, while housing activity has remained in the doldrums. The confluence of data has sent forecasts for economic growth in the first quarter tumbling.
Markets are now pricing in three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, up from the range of one or two expected following the last jobs report release on Feb. 7.
Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments
Still, economists largely argue that Friday’s jobs report won’t confirm the slowing seen across other data points over the past month. And importantly, many don’t think the impacts of the Department of Government Efficiency’s federal job cuts will be seen in the February report.
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