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After an NFL week is over with, fantasy managers are always inclined to move on to the next week. They check the updated standings, see who’s on bye for their team, and look ahead to their next matchup. There is far too little time spent reflecting on what occurred the week prior.
Here, we’ll be taking a look at five of the biggest fantasy football takeaways from Week 14 of the NFL season. These takeaways can revolve around player usage, production, or anything else that is relevant to their fantasy football outlook. Let’s take a look at five key notes from last week’s 13-game slate.
Brian Thomas Jr. is Indeed That Guy
It seems like with every week that passes, Brian Thomas Jr. does something that leaves you absolutely fired up for what his future holds, both this season and for the rest of his career. Just on the surface, Thomas is the WR10 through 14 weeks and he’s pacing for 238.1 PPR points this season, which would be the 10th-best season by a rookie WR this century.
Looking to last week, Thomas once again put on a show without Christian Kirk or Gabe Davis in the lineup. He drew 35.5 percent of the targets and accounted for 74.5 percent of the team’s air yards. Both of these marks were career highs and his 74.5-percent air yards share was the fifth-highest mark by a receiver in a game this season.
Thomas has popped on film all year and he continues to post more impressive analytical marks as the season wears on. His 2.38 yards per route run is one of the highlights of his analytical profile. Thomas appears to be a star in the making and he’ll be a coveted fantasy asset in the coming seasons.
The New York Backfield Takes an Unexpected Turn
Throughout the season, Braelon Allen was touted as a “premier handcuff” as it was widely assumed that he would take on a bell cow role if Breece Hall were to miss any time. Well, Hall was sidelined in Week 14 and Allen ceded plenty of work to fellow rookie Isaiah Davis.
Braelon Allen Week 14 Usage:
55.6% snap share
42.9% route participation
50% opportunity share
0% goal line snap share
Isaiah Davis Week 14 Usage:
52.4% snap share
35.7% route participation
50% opportunity share
100% goal line snap share
We saw this backfield function as a near-even split, with Davis having an edge at the goal line. However, it’s worth noting that the Jets had just one goal line snap last week which resulted in a Davante Adams touchdown.
With this looking like a full-blown committee, Davis is an interesting waiver pickup in case Hall misses another game. Even with the Jets’ season lost, Davis and Allen could do some damage against a horrendous Jaguars defense next week.
What do We Make of Kyler Murray?
If you’ve rostered Kyler Murray this season, you’ve been taken on an absolute rollercoaster ride. Murray has as many games this season (five) with fewer than 15 points as he does with 20-plus points. If you’re not much of an adrenaline junkie, I am personally sorry for what he’s put you through.
There are numerous reasons as to why Murray has struggled in fantasy. Inconsistencies from the passing game and offense as a whole have played a key role. But one glaring issue has been his lack of rushing production.
Murray has seven games this season with 21 or fewer rushing yards. In 2022 (prior to his knee injury), he had fewer than 21 rushing yards just once in 10 full games. In 2023, while still very much recovering from that knee injury, he failed to clear this mark in just two of eight games.
At this point, we may have to reevaluate how we perceive Kyler Murray in terms of what “bucket” of quarterback he falls into. He isn’t a threat at the goal line and he isn’t putting up gaudy yardage numbers either. Without doing either of these things, it’s hard to view Murray as one of the elite dual-threat fantasy quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins Struggles to Support Atlanta Pass Catchers
The struggles of Kirk Cousins this season have been well-documented. He’s now thrown eight interceptions across four consecutive losses for the Falcons. Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns and at least one pick in four straight games, the second-longest streak of this nature since 2000.
What’s even more concerning is his inability to support high-end fantasy production for his receivers. Since Week 8, there has been just one instance of an Atlanta pass catcher eclipsing 20 fantasy points: Darnell Mooney in Week 14. Even Bryce Young has generated more 20-point performances during this timeframe.
Obviously, fantasy managers have no control over the decisions NFL teams make. But the question becomes, would you rather see the Falcons turn to Michael Penix if you’re a Drake London owner? The weekly floor is much lower, but there is virtually no ceiling with Cousins in his current state.
The Miami Offense Continues to Take What’s Given
Last week, I wrote about the Miami offense and how they are simply adapting to what they were seeing from opposing defenses. Heading into Week 14, they had faced an inordinate amount of two high safety looks across their four previous games. As a result, they targeted the middle of the field and took checkdowns, which led to healthy workloads for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane.
Well, they faced single-high looks at the highest rate of the season last week (58.3 percent of plays) and Tyreek Hill unsurprisingly had his best game since Week 1. Jaylen Waddle also had a solid outing, clearing 20 points for the second time this season.
All of this goes to say that Miami has the depth in their weapons arsenal to work with what’s given to them. If teams are going to sit back in shell coverages and leave the middle of the field open, Tua Tagovailoa is more than happy to let Smith and Achane take underneath passes all day. If teams are going to roll with just one high safety, Tagovailoa can pick you apart with Hill and Waddle.
The depth and adaptability of this offense is a negative for the fantasy value of Hill and Waddle, but it’s what’s likely best for them as a team. Don’t expect things to change any time soon.