When are TDs a bad thing?

Well, never. But they can inflate a player’s perceived value beyond what he’s actually going to deliver the rest of the way.

Week 8 looks like a good time to try to sell on just that.

Or, you know, buy that undervalued player who could be the final piece …

Week 8 Buys

Week 8 Sells

Week 8 Holds

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel made it through just 4 snaps Sunday against the Chiefs, and then he landed in the hospital with pneumonia. 

As I write this, we’re still waiting to see if he’ll even play this week … and that makes it an even better time to see what he costs.

Biggest Hurdle Gone

Pneumonia can be pretty serious, but I’ll go ahead and bet a 28-year-old professional athlete will bounce back pretty quickly. (Even if it’s not this week.)

Whenever he does return, Samuel will do so to an offense missing WR Brandon Aiyuk. Yeah, he disappointed before his injury. But Aiyuk also drew a target on 21.8% of Brock Purdy’s pass attempts to date. That’s 6.7 targets per game to Samuel’s 6.4 (if you exclude Samuel’s Week 7).

We only saw one game over the past three seasons that had Samuel playing and Aiyuk sidelined. Samuel tallied a 6-129-1 receiving line on 12 targets in that one (Week 3 of 2023).

Even with Aiyuk on the field the rest of the time, Samuel finished 14th among WRs in PPR points per game last year. And he ranked third in 2021.

Ceiling Over Risk

Samuel, of course, checked in just 28th in points per game the season between. But he also dealt with multiple injuries that year and publicly scolded himself after the year for not being in better shape.

Make an offer for him now, while you might be able to pay mid-to-low WR2 price for WR1 upside.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Achane’s fantasy managers must be happy that Miami expects to get QB Tua Tagovailoa back this week. But are they happy enough?

Achane hasn’t finished higher than RB25 in four appearances since Tagovailoa’s injury game. That leaves him tied for 23rd in points per game on the season – despite a pair of top-3 weeks to open the year.

Perhaps the Achane manager remembers those weeks fondly and expects to get back a potential top-3 fantasy back.

Or maybe that person sees Achane’s 3.7 yards per rush, thinks about how Raheem Mostert missed nearly all of the first four games and sees Achane as a volatile asset.

The second-year back ranks 14th in expected PPR points per game. That strong usage included 7 receptions each of the first two weeks. Even now, only Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara lead Achane in targets per game.

Make an offer this week to see if you can grab a potential season-winner before Achane gets a chance to remind everyone how high his ceiling goes.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Man … that DeAndre Hopkins trade really sucks right after Worthy set season highs in targets each of the past two games … right?

That’s not how it looks from here.

The first-round pick has averaged just 4.8 targets and 2.5 receptions per game through six contests. His 11.6-yard aDOT sits 1.2 deeper than WR Justin Watson and more than 4 yards deeper than any other teammate.

Over the previous two years, no Chiefs besides Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling cracked double digits in aDOT.

Worthy Looks Like a Complement

Perhaps “lead WR” exists somewhere in his future. But the current version of Worthy looks like a speed complement.

The Chiefs have showed us as much by:

• giving him strong playing time right away
• designing touches for him
• limiting his overall target share

Worthy ranked second among Chiefs WRs in Week 1 playing time and has seen 60+% snap shares in five of six games.

He already has 4 rushing attempts, 6 targets behind the line of scrimmage (according to Pro Football Focus), and 11 others in the range of 0-9 yards.

Hopkins Can Help

The arrival of a bigger receiving threat can help Worthy by drawing defensive attention – and perhaps even boosting Kansas City’s pass rate.

The Chiefs have been trending downward in pass rate vs. expectation. They rank seventh in pass rate over expected for the year, but just 13th since Week 4.

Last year’s Chiefs led the league in PROE.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 31.2 pass attempts per game this season. Here are the annual averages for his previous six starting campaigns, from 2023 backward:

The potential for more Chiefs passing plus less defensive attention for Worthy plus more time for the rookie to get comfy in the pros (rookie WRs historically produce better later in the year) makes him an attractive addition to your fantasy roster this week.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• Nothing changed with Lamb or Odunze vs. last week, because both are coming off byes.
• Jacobs will be tougher to acquire now after posting his best PPR line of the season so far — including a season high in receptions and the first TD catch of his career. But he remains worth it.
• Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the field this week probably drives up the price for Hill some. But the WR is also coming off a 1-catch, 8-yard day and ranks 44th among WRs in receiving yards for the year. It’s. quite possible he remains underpriced.
• Warren got a season-high 12 carries Sunday night against the Jets. But Najee Harris still easily led him (21) and outproduced him (4.9 yards per rush to 3.7). Harris’ two straight 100-yard games will make him tough to pass.
• Andy Dalton’s thumb injury means Bryce Young will start this week. In case you forgot, Johnson totaled just 5 receptions and 34 yards across Young’s two season-opening starts.

Fantasy Sells

Weekly reminder: These are not necessarily “must” sells. See details for each option in his description.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

“If we get another strong Bigsby game this weekend, fire up the Sell wagon.”

That’s what I wrote at the end of Bigsby’s “Hold” case last week. And he delivered the eighth-best PPR score among RBs for the week (fifth in non-PPR, seventh in half-PPR).

That makes 4 rushing TDs and two top-8 fantasy finishes over just the past three weeks. Time to try to cash out.

Obstacles Remain

HC Doug Pederson says Travis Etienne remains his No. 1 RB when healthy.

“We’re blessed to have two really good running backs right now,” he said after the New England game. “When Etienne comes back, he’s just as explosive, just as good, just as powerful, and it’s still his job.”

Of course, Etienne now has shoulder and hamstring injuries to navigate. Any further missed time would obviously make Bigsby a starting consideration.

But Bigsby wouldn’t even be a PPR lineup lock in that circumstance. D’Ernest Johnson continued to edge him in passing work, including a 4-1 lead in targets.

Jacksonville also has the fourth-worst schedule for RB scoring the rest of the way; second-worst beyond Week 8.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

You gotta love a QB who can give you 40-yard rushing TDs, right? Of course.

The problem here is Murray hasn’t given us enough beyond that.

His 44-yard TD against the Chargers on Monday night and 50-yard scoring scamper against the 49ers two weeks before combine to supply 15% of his fantasy points for the season.

Murray’s No. 3 ranking among QBs in rushing yards also hides a mere No. 8 ranking in attempts.

Passing the Problem

Of course, all that would be fine if the Arizona passing offense were succeeding more.

Instead, Murray ranks just 24th in passing yards per game – behind Justin Herbert and Gardner Minshew, among others.

Murray’s 190.1 yards per game are low even by his standards – 25.2 yards short of his previous career low.

Murray still sits seventh in total fantasy points and 12th in points per game, so he should be movable. Doing so now would get ahead of this negative stretch the next four weeks:

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

We included Cook as a “Hold” back in Week 4. At that point, he sat sixth among RBs in PPR points per game … but just 21st in expected points per game.

That indicated his TDs were inflating his production beyond what his workload appeared likely to support. And I mentioned on our preview podcast that week that I was ready to trade him then.

Cook now sits tied for 15th among RBs in PPR points per game … and just 30th in expected.

He rebounded from the Week 6 toe injury to score a TD against the Titans last Sunday. That gives him scores in two straight appearances and 6 total TDs in six games for the year.

Those TDs boost Cook to 14th among RBs in total PPR points. But he also ranks just 19th in carries and an especially worrisome 38th (tied) in targets.

Opportunities in Remaining Schedule?

Cook gets three straight positive RB-scoring matchups, starting this week against Seattle. That means you can take your time fishing for a worthwhile deal rather than settling for this week’s best offer.

Week 11, however, brings the Chiefs. They’ve been the worst scoring matchup for the position by a wide margin this season.

After that comes a Week 12 bye, in a week that also finds five other teams on bye. (So good luck finding a decent fill-in.)

And Buffalo’s schedule for the fantasy playoffs includes a negative visit to Detroit in Week 15 and a negative spot against the Jets in Week 17.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Fantasy Holds

You might want to hang on to these guys for now to see what happens.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes has been letting you down to this point. So you don’t need to be told that DeAndre Hopkins’ arrival can only be a good thing. Beware, though, of some league mate trying to swoop in a snatch the QB before he fully rebounds.

Mahomes is averaging just 231.5 passing yards per game through six outings this season, 29.9 yards short of last year’s average and 53.1 shy of any of his other starting seasons.

Part of the issue has obviously been a lacking WR corps thanks to injuries. Another part has been the lower pass rate (as mentioned above in the Worthy section).

Hopkins’ arrival should signal at least some more passing, as well as better results.

So why a “Hold” instead of a “Buy”?

Mahomes still has plenty of climbing to do to become a 2024 difference maker. Last year’s version finished just 10th among QBs in points per game.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Through the first four games, the Chargers passed at a rate 10% under expected. The two games since have seen that swing to 2% over expected.

After opening the year with four games of less than 180 passing yards, Herbert has gone for 237 and 349 in his past two outings.

That big passing night Monday against Arizona didn’t find McConkey leading in targets, receptions or yards. But the rookie easily leads the team in route share (80.6% of dropbacks).

And despite ranking just 49th among WRs in PPR points per game, McConkey ranks 21st in target share and 22nd in targets per route.

We’re not betting on the Chargers going truly pass-happy or McConkey enjoying some huge breakout. But if the team continues with its increased passing, the second-round rookie can deliver some helpful fantasy lines over the second half.

Recent Holds

Let’s see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Montgomery missed the end zone for the first time this season last week and left with a knee issue. That’s not expected to cost him further time. So at least wait until after the next good outing if you want to try to sell.
• Swift‘s coming off a bye, so nothing changed vs. last week. He’s in a stretch where you can consider offers anytime. His five-game worrisome stretch starts in Week 12 and finds consecutive matchups with Minnesota, Detroit, San Francisco, Minnesota, and Detroit.
• Feel free to trade Mooney if there’s a worthwhile offer. I still have a hard time expecting one.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want … and the league mates who need what you got. And then it’ll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more …

Matt Schauf,
Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He’s been with Draft Sharks since 2011.