NFL Week 12 picks: Why you should consider Broncos and Lions on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for Sunday’s games.
Week 12 marks the first “Byemageddon” of the NFL season in fantasy football. A season-high six teams have their bye this week: the New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New Orleans Saints. Next week, fantasy football managers get a reprieve before another “Byemageddon” of six teams off in Week 14.
That means a lot of tough choices for fantasy football managers trying to put together their starting lineups this week. If you’re looking for some help, we’ve got you covered. Here are 40 players to start or sit in fantasy football this week:
In six games since the Chargers’ Week 5 bye, Herbert averages 268 passing yards and 26.3 rushing yards per game. He has logged multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games, so it seems he is finally starting to feel comfortable in Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s offense.
The Ravens have surrendered 21 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the third-most in the NFL. That should give Herbert a high ceiling to go along with his already rising floor.
Since returning to Miami’s lineup in Week 8, Tagovailoa has been hyper-efficient, completing 77.7% of his passes for 240 yards a game with seven touchdowns. The Patriots have generally been solid against quarterbacks but just allowed Stafford to throw four touchdowns against them.
The Dolphins have a similar offensive set-up to the Los Angeles Rams, with two dynamic receivers and some tertiary options who can make plays in open space. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill have a nice game on Sunday, so feel free to trust Tua here.
Nix is on a hot streak, averaging 257.3 passing yards and 2.5 total touchdowns per game over his last five outings. He has generally beaten up on lower-level competition as his rookie season has gone on, and the Raiders profile as another good matchup for him.
Las Vegas is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Raiders have allowed 10 passing touchdowns over the last three games, including three to Tagovailoa’s Dolphins and five to Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals. Nix may not be established as those two quarterbacks, but he should have a chance to log multiple touchdowns for a third consecutive week.
I know what you’re thinking. Can I really trust DeVito as a fantasy starter as he takes over a 2-8 Giants squad?
The answer: Probably not. But DeVito could be your guy if you’re desperate at QB during “Byemageddon” or are looking for a DFS sleeper to trust. The Buccaneers are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and DeVito had multiple touchdowns in two of his six starts last year.
Add in that DeVito averaged 27.7 rushing yards per start last season, he might be able to sneak into the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks this week. Trusting him isn’t for the faint of heart, but it has more of a chance to pan out than one might think.
Stafford is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the New England Patriots, during which Los Angeles’ passing game was clicking. He will have trouble replicating that success against an Eagles defense that has only allowed two passing touchdowns in six games since their Week 5 bye.
Philadelphia is allowing just 13.8 points per game over that span, so don’t be surprised if Vic Fangio finds a way to limit Stafford to one or fewer scores.
Backing Richardson after his strong showing on the ground against the New York Jets (10 carries, 32 yards, two touchdowns) may seem appealing, but he is facing a much tougher opponent in Week 11.
The Lions have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (94.8). Aaron Glenn will likely force Richardson to beat his defense through the air, so while the Colts quarterback’s rushing floor would normally make him a solid streamer, this isn’t a spot in which to back him.
Hunt was a start here last week and proceeded to have his worst performance of the season. Hopefully, he can prove us wrong this week. Conditions are good for him to have a bounce-back game in what could be his final significant start of the season with Isiah Pacheco on the mend.
Carolina’s coming off a bye but gave up 149 total yards and a touchdown to the Giants’ running backs in Week 10. Kansas City’s offense is orders of magnitude better than New York’s and Hunt can benefit on the ground. Even if Pacheco is back, it’s unlikely he’ll get a full workload in his first game back.
The last time we saw Irving on the field, he was a top-10 RB in all formats against San Francisco with 87 total yards and a touchdown. This week, he returns after out-carrying Rachaad White over the last three games. White remains a bigger threat in the passing game and Irving should shine against New York.
The Giants are fresh off a bye as well but they allowed just under 200 total yards per game to opposing running backs in the four games leading up to the bye, including 188 rushing yards to the Panthers in Week 10.
Ekeler managed a solid performance despite Washington’s loss in Week 11, especially in PPR or half-PPR leagues. Hiseight receptions for 89 yards – both season-highs – boosted his stat line in an otherwise tough night for the Commanders offense.
Things should be much easier this week. The Cowboys just allowed Houston’s backs to run for 111 yards and three touchdowns but, crucially, gave up 55 yards receiving on just three catches to the group. Washington’s rushing attack is better organized than Houston’s and Ekeler should have a great week if you’re looking for a fill-in for your starter.
Williams continues to frustrate fantasy owners this season. In Week 10, he has three total touches for seven yards. In Week 11, he has 13 touches for 87 total yards and a touchdown.
Which Williams will we get? It’s hard to be sure but it could be on the better side considering Denver is facing another below-average run defense in Las Vegas. The Raiders played better in Week 11 after their bye but still gave up 109 total yards and a touchdown to the Dolphins’ running backs.
Jacobs put on a performance after the bye last week against the Bears, totaling 134 yards and a touchdown on the road. Green Bay is back home on Sunday against a 49ers team that’s allowed at least one rushing touchdown in each of their last five games. His impact in the passing game should be a huge plus again; San Francisco’s allowed six or more receptions to opposing running backs four times this season.
The Bears had one of their best games of the year on offense in Week 11 and Swift was a key part of that. His 84 yards and a touchdown made for his best fantasy performance since Week 8.
This week will likely be harder. Minnesota hasn’t allowed more than 72 yards total to opposing running back groups in the last three matchups. In Week 11 against Tennessee, the Titans’ backs had just 37 yards on 16 touches. It’d be a big surprise to see Swift have a repeat performance against the Vikings.
Pollard had all 15 of the Titans’ rushing yards against Minnesota in Week 11. He balanced that out with two catches for 14 yards as well. Things will likely be tough again this week against a Texans team that’s allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, per FantasyPros.
In their last six games, Houston’s allowed 107 total yards to opposing running backs per game and just three touchdowns. The only running backs to perform well in that span are Jonathan Taylor and the Lions’ duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Pollard and the Titans aren’t on their level.
Hubbard had a great performance before the Panthers’ bye week with 169 total yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants. He was one of the best running backs in fantasy football in Week 10.
But there are two things against him at play in Week 12: Jonathon Brooks’ impending debut and a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. It’s a good week to bench Hubbard and see how the workload share pans out in Carolina.
Mattison is owned in just 57% of Yahoo fantasy football leagues and 59% of ESPN leagues, making him a potential add on a bye-filled Week 12. But it’d be best to avoid the Raiders’ lead back this week. Denver’s defense is becoming one of the better units in the league and just held the Falcons’ running backs to 77 total yards on 25 touches.
Mattison and the Raiders aren’t the same threat on offense as the Falcons with Robinson. Avoid him if you can this week.
McConkey has emerged as one of the most productive rookie wide receivers in the NFL this season. Over the last four weeks, he’s scored the 10th-most fantasy points of any wide receiver in non-PPR formats, surpassing guys like Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua.
In Week 12, McConkey and the Chargers will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-most points to wide receivers this season and the eighth-most points on average over the last four weeks.
Downs has taken over the No. 1 wide receiver from Michael Pittman in Indianapolis this year. Quarterback Anthony Richardson’s successful return in Week 11 helped remind fans how productive the Richardson-to-Downs connection has been this season. The second-year wideout caught five passes for 84 yards and his first touchdown since Week 8, which was Richardson’s last game as a starter before his two weeks on the bench.
This week, the Colts take on a Lions squad that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
The rookie wideout has struggled to find consistency during his first pro season but has found the end zone in two of his last three outings. Harrison’s last game was in Week 10 against a Jets defense that has been stingy to wide receivers in fantasy this year, yet he still caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and his sixth touchdown – which leads all Cardinals playmakers in 2024.
Big things could be ahead for Harrison this week. He’s got a divisional clash with a Seahawks defense that has allowed some big games to leading wideouts in the last few weeks.
Nabers had 35 catches for 386 yards and three touchdowns in his first four games. Then, a concussion kept him out for two weeks. In the four games back since the head injury, the rookie wide receiver has seen fewer targets and is catching them at a lower rate. He has 26 catches for 221 yards and zero touchdowns over the last four weeks.
Ahead of Week 12, the Giants benched starting quarterback Daniel Jones for former third-stringer Tommy DeVito. It’s not worth relying on Nabers to return to form with a new signal-caller under center, even against a Bucs defense that has had issues stopping the pass this year.
Worthy is coming off the second-best game of his rookie career, a four-catch, 61-yard day that included his fourth touchdown. However, it came after five weeks that featured a combined 11 catches (on 28 targets), 92 yards and one touchdown. To expect consistent production from Worthy, especially as the volume of DeAndre Hopkins’ targets and receptions ramp up, would be unwise.
It doesn’t help Worthy’s case that the Panthers haven’t given up many fantasy points to wideouts this year. While that may be a result of game scripts – teams holding big leads tend to run the football more – a trend is a trend. Don’t be fooled by Worthy’s big game in Week 11.
Kupp has been one of the most productive wide receivers in fantasy football since his return from injury. He’s had two 100-yard days in his last three outings and scored two touchdowns against the Patriots in Week 11. But he hasn’t faced a secondary like the Eagles’.
Since the Week 5 bye, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s squad seems to have figured everything out on that side of the ball. Here are the passing yards totals by opposing quarterbacks in the last six weeks: 168, 99, 234, 169, 45, 191. Only one quarterback (Joe Burrow) surpassed 200 passing yards against a tough Philadelphia secondary, and the leading pass-catcher in that game for the Bengals was tight end Mike Gesicki.
The Rams will have their work cut out for them in Week 12, Kupp included.
The veteran tight end has been a solid streaming option this season and a yo-yo start/sit each week. Patriots No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye continues to improve each week, and as a result, fantasy managers have been able to trust Henry to produce.
Henry is New England’s leading receiver and has run the most routes for the team this season. The Dolphins are middle of the road defending tight ends but have allowed the fifth-most receptions per game (5.7) to the position. Continue to ride Henry with the rookie quarterback leaning on him.
With six teams on a bye, the options at tight end call for some desperation dart throws. The Panthers’ athletic rookie tight end has stepped into a larger role in the two games before Carolina’s bye. He managed 85% and 88% of snaps, finishing with 12 and 8 PPR points, respectively.
Carolina will likely play from behind against the 9-1 Chiefs, setting the offense up for garbage time production. Kansas City has allowed the most yards to tight ends, and garbage time fantasy points count the same as regular fantasy points.
Dissly was a near-start recommendation last week, and he finished with a season-best four receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. Dissly gets to dish out more pain this week against a terrible Ravens secondary. Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. Dissly has received 12 targets over the last two games, and he shouldn’t slow down on Monday night. The Ravens have allowed a league-high 67 receptions to opposing tight ends. Don’t doubt Dissly.
With six teams on a bye, you may be searching down the ranks for a fill-in and considering the veteran Parksinon. The Rams host the Philadelphia Eagles on “Sunday Night Football,” and you should look elsewhere to fill your tight end spot this weekend.
The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Philly allowed its first touchdown to an opposing tight end in 2024 last week when Zach Ertz made an improbable catch in the back of the end zone. The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game overall, and Matthew Stafford will continue to pepper Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Leave Parkinson on waivers in Week 12.
The Packers host the 49ers in a massive Week 12 NFC clash. The Niners defense has held opposing tight ends in check. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. With linebacker Fred Warner patrolling the the field, tight ends typically struggle against the 49ers. Kraft was held without a reception last week against the Bears, and you can’t count on a bounce back on Sunday.
Tucker has missed six field goals in 2024 including two in the Ravens’ Week 11 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Still, he can be trusted against a Chargers team that just surrendered a season-high 27 points to the Cincinnati Bengals and allowed McPherson to attempt four field goals.
Even with another miss, Tucker should have the volume needed to do some damage against the Chargers. Expect him to challenge for a top-five spot among kickers this week.
Shrader didn’t attempt a field goal in his Chiefs debut but he made all three of his extra points. The 25-year-old has not missed any of his eight kicks with three teams this season, including field goals of 25 and 45 yards with the New York Jets.
The Chiefs have averaged just two field goal attempts per game but could be in for a bigger scoring week coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Panthers don’t exactly have a strong defense, so Shrader should be presented with enough opportunities to make him a viable fill-in streamer for the likes of Bass, Koo and McPherson.
Sanders has attempted multiple field goals in eight straight games and has made his last nine field goal attempts. Those consistent opportunities are rare for kickers still on the waiver wire, making him a great pickup for Week 12. The Patriots are fresh off allowing 28 points to the Los Angeles Rams, so if the Dolphins have similar offensive success, Sanders should be poised for plenty of volume on field goals and extra points.
The odds are that you aren’t looking to start Gano, but hey, it’s Byemageddon. Options are limited!
That said, Gano isn’t one you should pursue. While the Buccaneers allow the second-most field goal attempts per game league-wide at 2.6, the Giants are making a change at quarterback and are rolling with Tommy DeVito in Week 12. That could spark the team, but it could also be a rough transition if the 2023 undrafted free agent isn’t up to the task.
Add in that Gano made just one of his two field goal attempts in his Week 10 return from IR against the Panthers, and it’s probably best to stay away from him in this spot.
Karty has popped off several times this season but is still a risky start in this matchup. The Eagles have had one of the NFL’s best defenses since returning from their Week 5 bye and have limited their last three opponents to just three total field goal attempts. More than half of Karty’s 16 made field goals came in two games, so it seems like the Rams kicker is more likely to “bust” than “boom” in this matchup.
Santos may draw some consideration after Chicago’s offense woke up with Thomas Brown now in charge of it, but this isn’t a good matchup for him. The Vikings allow a league-low 1.3 field goal attempts per game, and Santos has attempted one or fewer field goals in five of his 10 games this season. He is also coming off a game-ending blocked field goal against Green Bay, so it isn’t clear whether that will negatively impact him here. Either way, there are better options to trust this week than Santos.
The Broncos are a safe best at D/ST in fantasy, like the place that won’t screw up your order and have you firing up a one-star Yelp review.
In an increasingly divided world, the Raiders have done their best to unify the eye test apologists and the advance stats nerds. Turns out, the Raiders are a bad football team no matter how you slice it and can’t wait to make Shedeur Sanders their next quarterback. Take the wins where you get them. Start the Broncos with confidence.
Speaking of subpar football teams, we present to you the Carolina Panthers. We’ve learned that Dave Canales isn’t a miracle worker, which this roster would’ve needed and then some. The Chiefs, fresh off their first loss of the season, now get to tee off against these poor Panthers, who are coming off their bye week. Carolina has won two in a row, their first winning streak in two years. However, those wins came against the Saints and lowly Giants. While Bryce Young quarterbacked those games, the experiment has still been a colossal failure. There’s no reason to believe the Panthers will be able to remain competitive with a step up in competition.
Dan Quinn revenge game, anyone? After an unceremonious exit from Dallas, Quinn gets his first look at his former players on the opposite sideline. The former Dallas defensive coordinator turned Washington head coach has to be feeling like he hit the lottery this season.
The Commanders look playoff bound and the Cowboys are on the next flight to Cancun. That creates a lopsided matchup for fantasy managers to exploit in Week 12, continuing to attack the less fortunate NFL offenses.
The Texans find themselves with another chance to pad their stats, this time against a divisional foe. The Titans have managed to hit the 20-point mark twice in 10 games, going over that number just once. They typically top out at 17 points each week, so we aren’t worried about shootout potential here. Tennessee is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game, the third-highest in the league. The Texans possess both a high floor and a high ceiling in Week 12.
We know what you’re thinking. Don’t do it. In a battle between chef and baker, Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito battles Baker Mayfield on Sunday in the Meadowlands. The Buccaneers’ defense is an easy choice to start in fantasy, but what if we told you they were the Olive Garden of this week’s options? On paper, it’s a fine pick. It won’t win any awards, but a chain restaurant often delivers acceptable results while leaving you wanting more.
Tampa Bay’s defense has given up at least 30 points in four of its last six games and you can see the writing on the wall. The Giants’ had the worst scoring offense in the league with Daniel Jones. It’s hard to imagine it getting much worse with the folk hero DeVito under center. In reality, the Giants are a sneaky upset pick on Sunday, so steer clear of Todd Bowles’ defense.
The Chargers once again find themselves in sit territory this week as the “Harbaugh Bowl” takes center stage on “Monday Night Football” in L.A. Jim Harbaugh’s defense allowed more than 20 points for the first time all season against the Bengals in Week 11. They appear ready to suffer a similar fate against Baltimore’s No. 2 scoring offense. This game promises to be a good one as the brothers battle for bragging rights and playoff position in the AFC. L.A.’s defense remains a quality unit, but the matchup warrants leaving them on the bench.
After posting double digit fantasy points in four of the first six games, Green Bay has failed to achieve that in four straight. They struggled against the lowly Bears and Jaguars during that span, meaning we don’t want to take our chances against a better 49ers’ offense. San Francisco has been a major disappointment in 2024, but the return of Christian McCaffrey always makes them a handful to deal with. We’ll buy into the belief that these 49ers will eventually figure it out and avoid the Green Bay defense that has struggled to create turnovers in recent weeks.
Not only are we avoiding the Packers, but we recommend adding the 49ers to the list as well. Nick Bosa could end up missing time and even if he doesn’t, the star edge is clearly playing at less than 100% right now. San Francisco’s defense suffers without Bosa’ presence, which the Seahawks exploited en route to a comeback win in Week 11. These two offenses could end up finding their footing this week, so we’ll avoid this game entirely and enjoy watching them rack up points in the late window.
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