Commanders stun Eagles, Bengals keep playoff hopes alive
Mackenzie Salmon reacts to the biggest storylines from Week 16 in the NFL.
Sports Seriously
It’s a bittersweet week for fantasy football players. The fantasy season is coming to a close, but it’s more than likely that you are not participating in your league’s championship or toilet bowl, meaning you don’t have much to play for anyway, so you can finally start looking ahead to next season.
However, for those lucky few of us who get to fight for eternal fantasy glory, there is a desperate need to know who to start and who to bench. Making the wrong decision could cost you a championship, or worse force you to do your league’s punishment, which could be a fate worse than death.
Of course, USA TODAY has never led you astray. We’ve been right on approximately 100% of our calls this year (don’t go back and check; that’s an order), so look no further. Here are eight players to start and eight more to sit to help you win your fantasy league championship.
Cooper Rush just put up 15 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that was with only one passing touchdown. Bryce Young has somewhat come into his own as of late, and it would not be shocking to see Young pick up a 20-point performance facing a team he’s already scored 23 points against.
The Cleveland Browns have allowed the tenth-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve surrendered at least 15 in 10 of their last 11 games. Even with Jaylen Waddle battling injury, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith should be more than enough to help Tagovailoa take advantage of a lackluster Browns defense.
Facing a weak Bengals’ defense, this game is a win-win for Williams. Either the Broncos go up big early and run the ball a lot, meaning more carries for Williams against Cincy’s weak defense. Or the Broncos are down and need to throw the ball, and Williams is the Broncos’ pass-catching back. Coming off a game where Williams was heavily involved in the passing attack against Los Angeles, Williams could be a great play in PPR formats.
Running backs have averaged over 4.7 yards per carry (6th-most in NFL) against the Seattle Seahawks and they have scored at least one touchdown in three of Seattle’s last four. Yes, Swift had a rough day against Detroit, but so does every running back that plays the Lions. He’s still a bell cow that has had double-digit carries in all but one game this year. At 4.7 yards per carry, Swift is a shoe-in for at least 50 yards and likely a few receptions, giving him a rather safe floor.
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With Tank Dell out, C.J. Stroud is going to have to throw the ball to someone, and we know this Texans’ offense is big enough to give more than just one receiver fantasy relevance.
While Reed is prone to the occasional dud, the last time the Vikings and Packers played, Reed recorded seven receptions, 139 yards (season-high), and a touchdown. In fact, in his career, he’s never had less than 80 receiving yards against Minnesota. Albeit, it’s only been three games.
See the reasons above regarding Robert Woods. Schultz is likely going to be the main beneficiary of Dell’s departure, and the Texans are facing a Ravens defense that has given up two touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.
The breakout that everyone expected from Okonkwo a season ago may finally be happening almost two years later. He’s earned double-digit targets in two straight games and now faces a lackluster Jacksonville defense that has given up at least six receptions to opposing tight ends in four of their last six games.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks all year, and although they’ve been a little more forgiving as of late, they should bounce back given that this game will be played on Christmas, giving Kansas City a little less time to prepare, and possibly throwing a lot of things out of whack.
While Darnold did score 26 points in his last outing against Green Bay, the Packers have become a much better pass defense since. After all, Seattle’s quarterbacks only put up two fantasy points last week against them.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a tremendous team when it comes to shutting down opponents’ top options. You can argue whether or not Harris is the Steelers’ prioritized weapon, but regardless, he’s had little time to rest since the Steelers’ game on Sunday, and he’s put up under five fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.
The Miami Dolphins were one of the worst teams against running backs early this year. That was in large part due to the absence of Tua Tagovailoa though. As teams would get out to big leads against Miami, they would just start running clock out, giving halfbacks more opportunities to rack up fantasy points. Since Tagovailoa has returned though, the Dolphins have been quietly solid against halfbacks.
They’ve only given up double-digit non-PPR fantasy points to the position in two of their last five games and they’ve only allowed three touchdowns to halfbacks over their last seven.
Don’t get me wrong, the Detroit Lions are going to decimate the San Francisco 49ers and the Lions will have ample opportunity to rack up a big score, but the Niners have been quietly solid against wide receivers, while being subpar against halfbacks. This seems like a game where the Lions will lean on Jahmy Gibbs over everything else, giving Williams less opportunity to rack up points.
Don’t look now, but Ridley hasn’t been as involved in the Titans’ pass game lately, racking up only five targets in each of the last two games. As Chig Okonkwo has seen his workload increase, it has come at the cost of Ridley’s production. Ridley is likely a touchdown-dependent play against a Jaguars defense that just held the Raiders’ receivers to only four catches.
The Detroit Lions are a nightmare matchup for tight ends, and although Kittle has been the only productive pass-catcher for San Francisco as of late, the Lions will not allow him to produce. They will do what they have done all year, namely, shut down big guys in the middle, and Kittle will be no exception.
Do you know how many times the Chargers have allowed opposing tight ends to earn more than six targets? Not receptions…targets. How many times have quarterbacks looked at them more than six times? Six times. That’s it.
It’s more than likely that Drake Maye will only throw to his tight ends a handful of times in this game and Henry is a volume-dependent option that relies on PPR and touchdowns to produce. This is not a good matchup for him.
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