This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 14 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
One of the toughest things to do during a fantasy football season is improve a team’s bench during the playoffs. Trades are out of the question because the trade deadline has already passed, the FAAB budget may already be spent, and playoff teams are the best in the league, so those squads probably already have strong benches.
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Difficult doesn’t mean impossible though, so let’s find some undervalued players who set a high floor in the event your team suffers an injury during the postseason.
One way to find this low-hanging fruit is to find extraordinarily favorable matchups.
The Bengals rank last in the league in fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed on vertical passes (62.3) over the past month, nearly 20 points higher than the next-to-last-place team, the Atlanta Falcons (43.7). The Bengals have the worst pass defense in the league right now, so matchups against them offer a clear path to shore up a fantasy bench.
Cincinnati plays the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos over the three weeks following the Bengals’ Week 14 Monday night game against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Titans were featured in this article series following the Week 13 slate because of their favorable schedule. Will Levis left Tennessee’s Week 14 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a shoulder injury but was able to return and thus looks to be on track to play next week. If so, Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine remain solid Week 15 options.
For Cleveland, the main player to consider is Elijah Moore. He has scored 16-plus fantasy points in three of the Browns’ past six games and ranks 27th among wide receivers in vertical FPPG since Week 11. Even with these solid numbers, Moore is still available in 76.3 percent of leagues.
Denver has multiple options. The percentage play may be Devaughn Vele. He has scored 10-plus points in three straight games in Weeks 10-12 and has two other 10-plus point games this season. To have him available as a potential injury replacement during a Week 17 title game could be a great option in deep leagues. With Vele rostered in only 3.1 percent of leagues, he’s a low-cost and widely available option.
Marvin Mims Jr. is the alternate Broncos candidate. Mims has been incorporated into the Denver passing game a lot more lately, with 15 targets over the past four weeks, and he just posted a season-high 19.9 points in Denver’s Week 13 matchup against Cleveland. Mims is available in 98 percent of leagues and thus should also be available in nearly every league.
Jameis Winston is another Cleveland upgrade candidate. He is ideally suited to take flight versus the Bengals since he has led all quarterbacks in vertical FPPG since Week 11. Winston is also available in 80.1 percent of leagues.
Russell Wilson doesn’t have the benefit of a Bengals matchup (unless you are in one of those rare leagues that have playoff games in Week 18). But the Pittsburgh Steelers have potentially high-scoring matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs. In addition, Wilson is sixth in vertical FPPG since Week 11, meaning he has downfield chops and is rostered in only 55.5 percent of leagues.
Winston and Wilson might be bench upgrades in many instances, but they are must-replace upgrades for fantasy managers who have QBs comparable to Geno Smith (49.8 percent rostered) or Kirk Cousins (54.3 percent rostered).
Next are three players putting up high-floor numbers but are still available in many leagues because they haven’t posted a high-ceiling performance that spikes their waiver wire/free agency claim percentage.
Pat Freiermuth tops this list. He ranks second among tight ends in vertical FPPG since Week 11 and has Pittsburgh’s aforementioned potential scoreboard shootout games over the next three weeks. Rostered in just over 50 percent of leagues, he is a great roster addition.
Second on this list is Christian Watson. He ranks 11th among wide receivers in vertical FPPG since Week 11. The Green Bay Packers have a tough defensive matchup against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15, but their Week 17 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings could be high scoring. Watson is available in 42.5 percent of leagues.
Finally, there is Michael Wilson, who is a deep-dive selection. The Arizona Cardinals wide receiver is tied for 17th in wide receiver vertical FPPG since Week 11 and has outproduced Marvin Harrison Jr. on vertical passes since Week 8 by an 8.7 to 8.5 margin. Wilson has a roster rate of only 9.9 percent and could help deliver a playoff semifinal-round win with a big game against a shaky Carolina Panthers defense in Week 16.
(Photo of Jameis Winston: Justin Berl/Getty Images)
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