This is the final week of the fantasy season for most of us. As we reflect back on 2024, the theme has been: surprises. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for real football and fantasy football alike. “Expect the unexpected” might as well have been our motto this year. That made it particularly hard to decide, as this piece aims to do, what we should trust and what we should ignore.

For instance, it was hard to believe that veteran running backs would rule the fantasy landscape while all but the absolute top tier of wide receivers would largely disappoint. This trend goes against years of data pointing in the other direction — that WR production was more robust than RB production. What it comes down to is that the league can’t remain stagnant. It must evolve and change to stay competitive, and so must we. Being unpredictable is a huge advantage in any adversarial situation from sports to wars. As much as we might hate the chaos, it’s the reality.

Speaking of unpredictability, the highlight of Week 16 had to be the Lions’ deceptive fake fumble play which led to a 30-yard Sam LaPorta touchdown. Dear Santa, MORE OF THIS PLEASE. Signed, Everyone. Now, some are criticizing the timing of this play, asking, “Why not save it for the playoffs?” I say, the next time the Lions actually fumble the ball, defenses are going to have “trick play” in their minds and not be quick enough on the recovery, giving the Lions an advantage twice on the same play.

In general, this is a great time to reflect on your fantasy season, honestly reviewing what worked and what didn’t. Take notes! You won’t look back on the 2024 season the same way eight months from now. Your memories will be warped by time but also by results from the combine, the draft, training camp, preseason, etc. But we still have one week left, so with the last Fact or Fluke of 2024 let’s look ahead once more to how we can win Week 17.

Tips to win the fantasy championship (or 3rd place) in Week 17

Whether you’re playing for third place, like me, or battling for a championship or two, what can you do to lock in this week? This is always such an individual question that it’s hard to provide a blanket answer. Some Jalen Hurts managers were out of it early in Week 16 (me) while others had Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard to make up the difference and advance.

This is where the depth stockpiling I’ve been talking about the last couple of weeks comes into play. There are a few players who are seriously questionable for Week 17, including Hurts, Kenneth Walker III and James Conner (who probably played a big role in getting you here). If you’re competing, you owe it to yourself to make sure that DeeJay Dallas and Michael Carter aren’t available. This is true whether you had Conner or not; even if you wouldn’t consider starting either of them — and you shouldn’t against a better-than-average Rams’ run defense — you can’t let your opponent take any advantage you could prevent. Under the most desperate of circumstances, Trey Benson would be startable if he looks good in practice this week (the Cardinals play Saturday night, so you’ll know).

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Next, let’s look at matchups for Week 17. The best overall matchups for fantasy go to the Titans, Bucs, Eagles, Panthers, Broncos and Texans. The Carolina at Tampa Bay game, in particular, should be fantasy-friendly all around.

The worst overall fantasy matchups hurt the Cowboys, Bills, Lions, Steelers and Browns. Looking at positional defense, the best passing/receiving options are Mason Rudolph and Calvin Ridley or Tyjae Spears, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans or Bucky Irving, Hurts or Kenny Pickett, Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown, Bryce Young and Adam Thielen, CJ Stroud and Nico Collins and Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill or Jonnu Smith.

For running backs, the best matchups (not already mentioned) go to Breece Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Taylor, Gus Edwards, Kyren Williams and Tank Bigsby/Travis Etienne Jr.

Finding the games with the highest over/under can help you decide between two similar players. This week, you’ll want to target Detroit at San Francisco (51.5 points), Carolina at Tampa Bay (49.5 points), Denver at Cincinnati (49.5 points), Green Bay at Minnesota (48.5 points), Arizona at L.A. Rams (48.5 points). Buffalo and Baltimore also have large team totals.

Finally, we’ve been looking at motivation as the final piece to help push toward one player over another. With more of the puzzle pieces moved into place during Week 16, we can focus on who needs the big W in Week 17 to clinch the division, a first-round bye or a wild-card spot. As of now, the Chiefs, Bills, Texans, Steelers, Ravens, Lions, Vikings, and Eagles have clinched playoff berths. No seeding is set in stone, so all of these teams have at least some motivation to play hard.

More interestingly, the Chargers, Broncos, Commanders, Rams, Packers, and Falcons would make it in if the season ended today but could be usurped by the Colts, Dolphins, Bengals, Bucs or Seahawks. This bunch of teams has the most to play for in Week 17.

Hopefully, you can use this rubric to pull out the best starters on your roster based on health, matchup, game script/environment and motivation. For example, my ideal Week 17 squad would include:

• QB Jaylen Daniels

• RB Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs

• WR Terry McLaurin, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson

• TE Jonnu Smith

• FLEX Bucky Irving and/or Zay Flowers

• DEF Eagles

The poor man’s version might look like this:

• QB Baker Mayfield

• RB Tyjae Spears and Zach Charbonnet

• WR Christian Watson (or your favorite Packer), Olamide Zaccheaus, Devonta Smith

• TE Cade Otton

• FLEX Jordan Addison and/or Chase Brown

• DEF Colts

It’s been fun making sense of the season with you this year. Good luck and happy holidays!