I rebounded from my 0-3 showing for bold predictions in Week 5. In Week 6, Bucky Irving was a top-15 running back in all scoring formats. Sadly, Zach Ertz was the TE10 in half-point per reception (half PPR) formats but was the TE11 in PPR. So, my prediction of a top-10 finish at tight end in both half PPR and PPR didn’t come to fruition. I also narrowly missed on calling Rashod Bateman a top-36 wide receiver in all scoring formats last week since he was the WR37 in standard, the WR34 in half PPR and the WR35 in PPR. I couldn’t have been any closer on my two whiffs. Regardless, my season tally is at 6-12, and my focus is on this week’s bold predictions.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Bold Predictions

Chase Brown is a Top-10 Running Back in All Scoring Formats in Week 7

Chase Brown hasn’t been a mainstay in the top-10 running backs this year. Instead, he was the RB5 in standard (21.2), the RB5 in half-point per reception (22.2) and the RB6 in PPR (23.2) in Week 4 and tied for the RB10 in PPR (16.4) in Week 5. The tied might be turning in Cincinnati’s backfield toward their explosive second-year running back.

According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 51 running backs with at least 35 rush attempts this year, Brown is tied for fifth in yards per carry (5.55), tied for eighth in explosive run percentage (7.8%), tied for second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.57), tied for 10th in yards after contact per attempt (2.98) and has the second-lowest stuff percentage (31.4%). Moss has been a below-average runner in all those metrics.

Cincinnati’s backfield’s rushing split has tilted toward Brown lately, with the second-year pro rushing 37 times versus 30 for Moss since Week 4. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Moss played 76 passing snaps and ran 57 routes during that period compared to 41 and 39 for Brown. Nevertheless, Brown’s stock is rising.

The speedy running back also has favorable betting info and a decent matchup this week. The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites. In addition, per Pro Football Reference, the Browns have surrendered 90.8 rushing yards per game at 4.5 yards per carry to running backs this year. More interestingly, they’ve coughed up six rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Brown has expert consensus rankings (ECR) of RB23 in standard, RB21 in half PPR and RB20 in PPR this week. I’m more bullish about Brown’s outlook and believe he’ll finish as a top-10 running back in all formats against a Browns team playing out the string already. Thus, Dobbins can outscore Henry in all formats this week, and I expect LA’s lead running back to do just that.

Geno Smith is a Top-5 Quarterback in Week 7

Geno Smith is ranked as the QB10 this week, but he has a golden opportunity to go nuts in a shootout environment without any concern for the weather inside the cozy confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Smith also shouldn’t be under duress. Per Pro Football Reference, the Falcons are tied for the second-lowest pressure percentage (14.0%) and have the fewest sacks (five) this season.

Smith is sharp when he’s kept clean. According to PFF, Smith has completed 126 of 162 pass attempts (77.8%) for 1,264 passing yards, three touchdowns, five big-time throws, zero interceptions and two turnover-worthy plays on 167 dropbacks without pressure.

The pace and game script should also be ideal for Smith. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Seahawks have taken the second-fewest seconds per snap (25.4) and the Falcons are first (25.1) when in a neutral game script this year. Moreover, Seattle has the highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%). Smith, the NFL’s leader in passing yards per game (296.3), should feast against the Falcons and finish as a top-5 fantasy quarterback this week.

J.K. Dobbins Outscores Derrick Henry in All Scoring Formats in Week 7

Former Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins has a more favorable matchup this week than their current stud running back, Derrick Henry. The Ravens and Chargers have run-first offenses, owning identical 51% situation-neutral run rates.

However, Baltimore is facing a pass-funnel defense, and Los Angeles is facing a run-funnel defense. The Buccaneers have faced the lowest situation-neutral rush rate (33%), and the Cardinals have faced the highest situation-neutral rush rate (54%). It’s literally the largest gap possible. As a result, the Buccaneers have yielded the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.3) and four rushing touchdowns to running backs this year. Conversely, the Cardinals have coughed up the second-most rushing yards per game (124.8) and five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.

Tampa Bay’s stout running numbers were also slightly deflated by one game without Vita Vea. Without Vea in Week 2, the Buccaneers permitted 89 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on 19 attempts to the unimpressive trio of Tyler Badie, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. They’ve been a challenging matchup for running backs in five games with Vea, illustrated by the fantasy finishes in the following table.

King Henry can overcome a challenging matchup, and I don’t suggest gamers bench him. However, Dobbins has outscored Henry twice in LA’s five games this season and has a dreamy setup for an outburst this week for the 2.5-point favored Chargers against Arizona’s leaky run defense.

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