I was 8-18 (.308) on my bold predictions through nine weeks. Last week, I had two correct bold predictions, and I’m scoring one as a no-contest since Amari Cooper was inactive. My new season tally is 10-18 (.357), and I’ll attempt to add more wins to my ledger with this week’s three bold predictions.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Bold Predictions

Jaylen Warren is a Top-20 Running Back in Half PPR and PPR Formats in Week 11

This week, Jaylen Warren is the RB31 in half-point per reception (half PPR) and the RB30 in PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR). I’m more bullish on his outlook.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Steelers are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%) since Week 7. However, the Ravens have faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (67%) in that period. Baltimore has a pass-funnel defense, and they’ve been stout against the run.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Ravens have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (56.8) to running backs at a paltry 3.22 yards per carry this season. Fortunately for Warren, running backs have had success through the air against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the eighth-most receptions (5.1) and the third-most receiving yards (47.0) per game to running backs this season. They’ve also permitted them eight touchdowns (five rushing and three receiving).

Warren is Pittsburgh’s passing-down back and change-of-pace option. He’s also in good form. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in the Steelers’ previous two games, Warren had 23 rush attempts (34.8% of the backfield’s rush attempts) for 112 yards (56.0 per game), 4.87 yards per carry, 2.52 yards before contact per attempt, 2.35 yards after contact per attempt, 0.30 missed tackles forced per attempt, an 8.7% explosive run percentage, 43.5% stuff percentage, 36.4% route participation (25.8% for Najee Harris and 12.1% for Cordarrelle Patterson), 4.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 8.8% target share, 0.21 targets per route run, four receptions (2.0 per game), 42 receiving yards (21.0 per game), 1.75 yards per route run and one end zone target.

Warren has averaged 77.0 scrimmage yards and 2.0 receptions per game in his last two, and an uptick in receiving work against Baltimore’s pass-funnel defense could help him exceed both marks. Sadly, he appeared on the injury report on Thursday as a non-participant because of a back issue. Ideally, the Steelers were cautious, but Friday’s participation will be telling. If Warren is inactive, I’ll rule this bold prediction as a no-contest.

Quentin Johnston is a Top-24 Wide Receiver in All Scoring Formats in Week 11

Quentin Johnston is erasing the memory of his dreadful rookie season in 2023. The sophomore has scored at least one touchdown in four of seven games played this year, including in back-to-back contests. Johnston also erupted for 118 receiving yards on four receptions, including the touchdown, in Week 9.

He’s had a critical, albeit non-high volume, role in two games since returning from an injury. Since Week 9, Johnston’s had a 75.4% route participation percentage, 13.0-yard aDOT, 24.9% air-yard share, 15.6% target share, 0.16 targets per route run, 18.2% first-read percentage, six receptions (3.0 per game), 142 receiving yards (71.0 per game), 3.30 yards per route run, one end zone target and two touchdowns.

In the previous two weeks, Johnston was the WR6 and WR24 in standard, the WR6 and WR28 in half PPR and the WR6 and WR28 in PPR formats. He’s the ECR WR38 in standard, WR37 in half PPR and WR36 in PPR this week in a potential shootout environment against a Bengals squad more formidable against the run than the pass.

Cincinnati has allowed the 15th-most half PPR points per game (27.1) to wide receivers this year. However, they’ve held running backs to only 91.0 rushing yards per game at 4.06 yards per carry. The Chargers have bounced between run-heavy and pass-heavy situation-neutral offenses this season. How they’ll attack the Bengals is a mystery, but I suspect they’ll take the easier path and air it out. As a result, I’m making the bold prediction Johnston will be a top-24 wideout in all fantasy scoring formats this week.

Russell Wilson Will Pass For at Least 300 Yards in Week 11

A proclamation that Russell Wilson will pass for at least 300 yards this week isn’t a flaming hot bold prediction because of the matchup. However, the Steelers have a run-first offense, and Wilson hasn’t often cleared 300 passing yards.

Wilson has gone 15 starts since passing for at least 300 yards. He passed for 306 in Week 3 of 2023 after passing for 308 in Week 2. Still, Wilson has passed for at least 300 yards in just four of his last 56 starts.

Wilson has played well this year and is in an eruption spot. He has averaged 245.7 passing yards per game in three starts this season at 8.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Wilson’s passing yardage is depressed by his low passing volume, tossing 29, 28 and 28 passes in three starts.

He should air it out more often against the NFL’s biggest pass-funnel defense since Week 7. In addition, the Ravens can’t stop the pass. Per Pro Football Reference, they’ve allowed 314.4 passing yards per game to quarterbacks this year. Wilson should be the next quarterback to torch them for over 300 yards.

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