Readers of this space already know that we’re on logical horses in both the Silverbulletday Stakes, which kicks off the all-stakes pick 4 on Saturday at Fair Grounds and the Lecomte Stakes, which concludes the sequence and 12-race card.

With that in mind, I was happy to handicap the Louisiana Stakes and be willing to take a stand against 5-2 morning-line favorite Hit Show. This now-5-year-old Candy Ride horse maintained solid form throughout his 4-year-old season and shows up much earlier for a 2025 campaign than he did in 2024. There is no guarantee that even his absolute best makes him the likeliest winner here. And it’s just too competitive a race to take the favorite, especially one who has brand recognition and so can attract public money.

Skinner was on the same Triple Crown trail as Hit Show but never made the classic races. This Curlin horse looked awesome when winning the Grade 3 Native Diver last out at Del Mar for California-based trainer John Shirreffs. Now in Cherie DeVaux’s Fair Grounds barn, Skinner has Midwest and East Coast targets. He eschewed a Pegasus World Cup (G1) invite to run here, and I expect a similar performance as in the Native Diver, especially since his uncoupled stablemate Pipeline is in here, and he has a lot of speed.

My other alternatives are Cooke Creek, who might be pace-compromised with Pipeline in here, and Track Phantom, but his best race last year was a press-and-pounce first off the claim for current trainer Mike Maker. Freshened for this after the Clark Stakes (as is Hit Show), Cooke Creek is 9-2 on the morning line with fair odds of 6-1, which we might get because I think both Hit Show and Skinner will be less than their morning line.

Ditto for Komorebino Omoide, who would be worth using at his 8-1 morning line. He has run 1 1/8 miles twice, but once was turf and the other was a three-turn affair at Charles Town. Neither were bad efforts, but I think this trip on dirt at Fair Grounds after sprinting last out could result in a career best.

I will single Skinner on some tickets. That will allow me to press him with the logicals in the 3-year-old races, which you can see in the links in first paragraph. I also will use both Cooke Creek and Komorebino Omoide on backup tickets and definitely look to beat Hit Show out of the trifecta, with two of my three multi-race horses figuring prominently in my vertical plays.