East Avenue has all the credentials to be the favorite in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Undefeated in two starts by a combined 13 1/4 lengths, East Avenue entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the 9-5 favorite but exited the starting gate terribly and never was a factor. Trainer Brendan Walsh got back to work on the Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d’Oro on Jan. 3, and a steady string of workouts includes a best-of-44 five-furlong move in 59.40 seconds Jan. 17. 

Those are the positives. The biggest negative at a short price against 12 others is that East Avenue has not run the fastest race of these, and as a whole the field’s best performances are all within 10 lengths of each other. Throw in the added distance of 1 1/8 miles that none of them have gone before, and it is hard for me to take East Avenue at a short price here.

So who’s the alternative? Well, I’m sorry to say I punted on this a bit, making Gun Runner Stakes winner Built my second choice at 6-1 and then a trio of entrants at 7-1 each.

I’ll start with one of the latter horses in Jonathan’s Way because I think there is no chance he will be 7-1 and thus is an underlay. Like East Avenue, Jonathan’s Way started his career with two wins, but the losses that followed did not come with the excuse East Avenue had. Now this Vekoma colt is stretching out to nine furlongs off an 11-week layoff, and I need to see one going this far.

Built sort of spun his hooves in the Lecomte (G3) on this track with a sloppy, sealed condition. I’ll downgrade him if it rains, but I have no concern with him stretching out. Vassimo has yet to taste defeat in two tries, but this will be his first stakes attempt. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. remains loyal, which is noteworthy because this is the Nyquist colt’s third track in as many starts.

Septarian ships in for trainer Chad Brown, who took over from Midatlantic-based Javier Contreras when John Stewart’s Resolute Racing purchased the son of Protonico. His first start for the barn was an OK third in the Mucho Macho Man, but Brown is adding blinkers here after a bullet work last out, so improvement would not shock.

I see a pretty steep drop off in talent after these five horses. With the 13-horse field and two of the top three choices, East Avenue and Jonathan’s Way, projected to be underlays, I’m comfortable focusing my wagering on Built, Vassimo and Septarian.