Figuring out how the public will bet the Claiming Crown Jewel is as challenging a puzzle as figuring out the chances of each horse winning.

The de facto stakes run under starter-allowance condition is one of eight such races on the 11-race program on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Those eight races are part of the 26th annual Claiming Crown for horses who have started for certain claiming prices.

The Jewel is the richest of the octet, drawing a full field of 14 with 12 able to start. The Jewel’s entrants made their last starts at seven tracks in five states, so who has the edge?

Bourbon Day is the likely favorite off a seven-length victory going long off-the-turf last out. But he beat only four others that day, and his 0-for-2 record on tracks rated as fast gives pause at a short price. He was a sharp claim earlier this year for Ten Strike Racing, but I don’t expect the betting value to be there this weekend.

Surface To Air ran a career best last out on the drop in class and return to dirt. Premier Stable’s Midshipman colt also has a win at this distance and seems better fast dirt than the likely favorite. The concern here is that was a huge effort last out. A repeat and he runs off the screen. If there’s any regression to previous efforts, then he’s a huge question mark here.

Spoiler, Hurry Hurry, Guntown and Laughing Boy are in my next tier of likely winners-potential value plays. I do not expect Bourbon Day to be a play but Surface To Air might be. After that, Spoiler and Lauhing Boy are worth a look at the front end. Hurry Hurry and Guntown fit as well as any I’ve mentioned but I have some concerns that they’ll be pace compromised.

All comments belie the importance of demanding value in this race. My primary thought is that Bourbon Day will be overbet and there might be opportunity playing around with exactas involving Spoiler, Hurry Hurry, Guntown, Laughing Boy and Surface to Air while defeating the favorite altogether.