When a reputation of being one of the best trainers precedes you, the money usually follows, which is why it is exciting to have a Chad Brown trainee as my most likely winner of the Fair Grounds Stakes presented by Horse Racing Nation who is the 5-1 fourth choice on the morning line.

As always in a pari-mutuel market, you should never count your value before it realizes, but at 5-1 morning line, Unit Economics is very intriguing.

As for that reputation, Brown has earned it-especially when shipping in to Churchill Downs-owned tracks to race in graded stakes on turf. Lifetime, Brown is 37-for-154, a 24% win rate, with a +18.6% ROI. That is incredible for a trainer who gets bet so heavily.

When Brown does not get bet, that’s even better. He is 18-for-97, 18.5%, with a +40% ROI when his shippers to Churchill Downs-owned tracks for graded-stakes races on turf are not favored. Overall in Fair Grounds graded stakes he is 3-for-11, a 27.2% winner, with a +50% ROI. 

One fly in the ointment is the presence of jockey Flavian Prat, who attracts money like Brown does. Still, in CDI graded stakes on turf the pair is 6-for-18 with eight other in-the-money finishes with a -2.8% ROI. They’re 4-for-10 together with favorites, making them 2-for-8 on non-chalk, meaning I won’t be discouraged if the money does not show here. 

It all adds up to Unit Economics likely being worth a play here. He gets the Frank Angst jockey angle, whereby a jockey who only rode him once on turf returns for a mount after a good initial voyage between the pair. Unit Economics won a first-level allowance race with Prat two back before just missing last out after breaking slow under a different jockey but in a fast time.

Brown’s former assistant Cherie DeVaux is the primary danger, which is a value opinion in and of itself because her Lael Stables charge Taking Candy is the second choice on the morning line and my second-most likely winner. Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up this mount intrigues. I am a little nervous about 1 1/8 miles for this son of Twirling Candy out of a Trappe Shot mare, but talent wise he fits.

Morning line Gigante is a toss for me. His numbers are consistent, but he’s run them consistently enough that I’m fine betting against him moving forward to the type of race that it would take to beat either of my top two.