I know most people do not love coupled entries, but as a bettor I wish they were more prevalent because they are almost always overbet when the coupling involves known names.
Take the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes on Thursday at Santa Anita, for example. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has four of the 11 entrants in the race for 3-year-old fillies going seven furlongs. Based on the morning line, the quartet would be 4-5 as an entry, a big underlay versus the 7-5 I would want based on fair odds.
To be fair, Hope Road is a legitimate contender, and I see her as the most likely winner. But I have her at 7-2 and the morning line is 3-1. Considering my bullishness on odds-on More Than Pretty in the American Oaks (G1), Hope Road is one to oppose here.
Accuracy and One Magic Philly are the logical alternatives. I slightly prefer the former on the cutback. The public might devalue her chances at this trip given her lone sprint was her worst career effort. But that was on debut, and she did not break sharply. Trainer Michael McCarthy seems to have figured that out, and she will be tough with the inside draw here.
One Magic Philly was highly regarded enough to be 10-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and now she gets to drop in against straight 3-year-olds again. She should be closer to the pace against this group and could get first run on others if Splendora goes from the rail with Sandy Bottom, who upset Tamara last out.
It is odd to be so bearish on a filly who has never been behind horses, but so it goes with Sandy Bottom, who lacks the final speed figures to be competitive here and almost certainly will face more pace pressure while stretching out. Tamara has lost at 4-5 and 2-5 in her last two starts. No thanks.
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