After successful campaigns against India at home and against Sri Lanka in the subcontinent, the Australian Test team’s attention turns towards defending its World Test Championship title in June.

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Having triumphed against India at The Oval two years ago, Pat Cummins’ men will be competing to become the first nation to win consecutive WTC finals when they face South Africa at Lord’s this winter.

The Proteas topped the World Test Championship standings during this cycle, albeit with a favourable schedule, while the African nation is also second on the ICC Test Team Rankings. However, South Africa and Australia haven’t locked horns in the Test arena in England since 1912, with lingering uncertainty regarding which team the British conditions will favour.

Although Australia experimented with its team balance in Sri Lanka – elevating Travis Head to opener and picking three strike spinners – the reigning champions are expected to name a more familiar starting XI for the WTC final. It will take a significant amount of change, however, to restore that familiar line-up with the openers, middle-order, and bowling combinations all set to be tweaked.

And that’s without mentioning Cameron Green, whose looming return could come at a massive cost for a fallen star.

OPENERS

Following his brief stint as opener for the Warne–Muralitharan Trophy in Sri Lanka, Travis Head will return to his preferred position in the middle order for the World Test Championship final.

Teenage phenom Sam Konstas is the leading candidate to partner veteran opener Usman Khawaja at the top of the order for the marquee fixture, and the 19-year-old’s potential return looms as a major talking point ahead of the must-win match.

Konstas has prior experience in England having toured with the Australian Under-19 team in 2023, posting scores of 20, 84*, 3 and 27 during the Youth Ashes Tests. The right-hander also smacked a century during the one-day leg of the tour, an unbeaten 105 in Beckenham.

When confronted by the likes of Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje at Lord’s, it would be fascinating to see whether Konstas embarks on the counterpunching style that rattled Indian quick Jasprit Bumrah on Boxing Day or pursues a more traditional approach.

However, with one Test fifty to his name, Konstas can’t be considered a lock. If the Blues rising star struggles to perform in the Sheffield Shield over the coming weeks, national selectors may be tempted to look elsewhere.

Following disappointing Ashes tours in 2011 and 2019, Khawaja quashed accusations he couldn’t bat in England by top-scoring during the 2023 series with 496 runs at 49.60, and the 38-year-old will be crucial for taking the shine off the new ball and setting a platform for the middle order.

MIDDLE ORDER

Steve Smith and Travis Head, who combined for a 285-run partnership during the previous WTC final against India, are perhaps the only locks in Australia’s middle order ahead of the Lord’s contest.

Following a lean couple of years with the bat, Marnus Labuschagne is under mounting pressure to keep his spot in the Test side, with the Queenslander accumulating 935 runs at 28.33 during the ongoing WTC cycle.

The 30-year-old has made some valuable contributions to the national red-ball side over the last couple of years, most notably his gritty Ashes century at Old Trafford in 2023 and his twin fifties during this summer’s Boxing Day Test at the MCG. However, with Cameron Green expected to be available for the WTC final as a specialist batter, Labuschagne could be the unfortunate player who makes way for his return.

Green cemented himself in Australia’s Test side last year with a heroic century against the Black Caps in Wellington, but the all-rounder was ruled out of the 2024/25 summer due to back surgery. It would not be inconceivable for Smith to slide up to first drop to accommodate Green’s return to his preferred spot at No. 4.

Test batting average in England

55.00 – Steve Smith

39.36 – Marnus Labuschagne

38.63 – Travis Head

31.40 – Alex Carey

31.04 – Usman Khawaja

All-rounder Beau Webster is the leading candidate to occupy the No. 6 spot courtesy of his versatility with the ball and prior experience in the United Kingdom. During last year’s County Championship campaign, the Tasmanian scored 233 runs at 58.25 and claimed 16 wickets at 21.25 during a successful stint with Gloucestershire.

However, if national selectors didn’t consider having a fifth bowling option a necessity, Webster might be at risk of slipping out of the starting XI.

Having clobbered a century on Test debut in Galle last week, Josh Inglis would be in contention as a specialist batter, but there may not be room for the West Australian in the middle order despite his recent success in the red-ball formats.

Green occupying the No. 6 is also an option. The 25-year-old is in talks with Gloucestershire to play some County Championship cricket before the WTC final, while he’s also eyeing a potential Sheffield Shield return next month.

BOWLERS

Captain Pat Cummins and spinner Nathan Lyon are locks in the starting XI, while Mitchell Starc will almost certainly take the new ball.

The left-armed quick spent four Tests of the 2019 Ashes carrying drinks, with national selectors preferring the services of seamer Peter Siddle because his nagging lengths were deemed more threatening in the United Kingdom.

However, Starc proved his worth in English conditions four years later, finishing the 2023 Ashes as the leading wicket-taker with 23 scalps at 27.08 and named player of the series.

Therefore, the only looming question mark in Australia’s bowling attack is the choice between Josh Hazlewood and Scott Boland.

Test bowling average in England

26.07 – Josh Hazlewood

27.17 – Pat Cummins

29.61 – Nathan Lyon

30.05 – Mitchell Starc

48.00 – Scott Boland

Boland has been Australia’s perennial 12th man for more than three years, only sliding into the starting XI as an injury replacement. However, the Victorian seamer revived calls for him to become a regular member of the Test side after taking 21 wickets at 13.19 during the recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy campaign against India.

He was also Australia’s best bowler during the 2023 WTC final against India, taking five wickets across the match including the likes of superstar Virat Kohli and opener Shubman Gill.

Boland’s Test record in Australia is nothing short of exceptional – 49 scalps at 12.63 in nine matches – but he hasn’t been as successful overseas. During the 2023 Ashes in the United Kingdom, the 35-year-old claimed two wickets at 115.50, with England’s batters treating him with disdain during the Headingley Test.

Considering Hazlewood’s lengthy resume and prior success in England, most notably during the 2019 Ashes campaign, the Bendemeer Bullet should get the nod despite Boland’s recent heroics against India.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REST?

Having been named in Australia’s squad for the Warne–Muralitharan Trophy as a reserve batter, Nathan McSweeney is still considered a future Test prospect despite his underwhelming performance during the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

If the South Australian makes a Test return – which may not be for another 24 months – it would most likely be in the middle order where he’s spent most of his first-class career.

Cooper Connolly was picked for the Sri Lanka tour in a horses-for-courses selection, bolstering the team’s batting while providing an extra bowling option that spins the ball away from right-handers. However, it would be difficult to justify his selection for the WTC final unless wicketkeeper Alex Carey slides up the order to create a vacancy for him at No. 7, which seems unlikely.

The West Australian may not get another opportunity in the Test side until the 2027 tour of India.

Despite finishing the Warne–Muralitharan Trophy as the leading wicket-taker, Matthew Kuhnemann is unlikely to feature in Australia’s squad for the WTC Final due to the pace-friendly conditions. However, the left-armed tweaker looms as a crucial figure for the 2027 Border-Gavaskar Trophy campaign in the subcontinent.

Having featured in the 2023 Ashes in England, taking seven wickets at 25.85, spinner Todd Murphy has a decent chance of being named in the WTC Final squad as a reserve tweaker. The spectacled Victorian remains Lyon’s heir apparent despite being dropped for last week’s second Sri Lanka Test, although Kuhnemann and Corey Rocchiccioli aren’t far behind.

CAN ANYONE BOLT INTO LATE CONTENTION?

Cameron Bancroft and Matthew Renshaw have superb County Championship records under their belt, but both have fallen out of favour with the national selectors following lean starts to their Sheffield Shield campaigns.

Tasmanian opener Jake Weatherald, who slapped a century against Victoria at Bellerive Oval this week, is currently the leading run-scorer in this season’s Sheffield Shield, and could be a smokey for the WTC final if national selectors wanted an experienced opener to partner Khawaja. South Australia’s Henry Hunt, who has 552 runs at 39.42 this summer, is also an outside chance.

Meanwhile, Victoria’s Marcus Harris was named as the reserve opener in Australia’s squad for the 2023 WTC final due to his excellent red-ball record in the United Kingdom. Having made a strong start to this season’s Sheffield Shield and impressed during November’s Australia A match against India A at the MCG, the 32-year-old wouldn’t be far off a long-awaited Test recall.

Former Test players Peter Handscomb and Hilton Cartwright also would be tabled as options as they continue compiling mountains of runs in the Sheffield Shield.

Meanwhile, New South Wales veteran Kurtis Patterson is breathing down Labuschagne’s neck following a prolific start to his Sheffield Shield campaign with 528 runs at 88.00. The left-hander, who played two Tests in 2019, also cracked a century during last week’s Australia A match against the English Lions in Sydney.

However, national selectors would be inclined to reward players that helped Australia qualify for the WTC final rather than drafting in new faces.

Lance Morris, Xavier Bartlett, Michael Neser, Fergus O’Neill and Sean Abbott are among the seamers who could be named in the extended squad as reserve bowlers, but barring injury, they won’t crack into the starting XI. Abbott was part of Australia’s squad for the Warne–Muralitharan Trophy, while O’Neill is one of the country’s most exciting young talents with 25 wickets at 21.12 in this summer’s Sheffield Shield.