2. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season, but like many South America imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed. The Grade 1 California Crown winner is trained by Richard Mandella, who’s had success with these types before, including Sandpit, Malek, Siphon and Gentlemen. Subsanador finally was starting to show what he’s made of. He had taken clear steps forward and was a legitimate player in the division but has been put on the shelf until next season because of injury.

3. Newgate. He’s been a solid performer in all five of his U.S. races this season. After taking the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March, when he defeated Highland Falls, he narrowly missed out on the California Crown in September, losing by a head. Then in the Breeders’ Cup Classic he turned in a commendable effort finishing fourth, only three lengths behind the winner. He proved he belongs in the conversation among the top contenders in this division.

4. Hit Show. He quietly has racked up four wins in five starts this season with his last three victories coming in graded stakes. He hasn’t faced the cream of the crop in this division, but what defines the best anymore in this division? I’d back him against any of the names ranked here. He absolutely deserves his spot in the top five right now, and if he takes the Clark (G2) at Churchill on Friday, don’t be surprised if he climbs into the top three on my Eclipse ballot.

5. Highland Falls. He never posed a serious threat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing a dismal ninth and trailing by more than 14 lengths. Before that embarrassment, he did have a moment of glory, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in impressive fashion. Overall his season has been a mixed bag with three wins from seven starts, including a solid showing in the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June. But a good season doesn’t quite erase the memory of that lackluster Classic performance.

Next five: Señor Buscador, Full Serrano, Tapit Trice, Skippylongstocking, Arthur’s Ride.

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Really a downer when it was announced she would be retired and had to miss the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. In her last start she owned the Spinster (G1) again, making it back-to-back wins. I was more impressed with her in her two losses this season than in her wins, but she still had a rock solid year. She’s going to earn my Eclipse vote in this division, but Adare Manor was right on her heels.

2. Adare Manor. Despite retirement, she will remain in these rankings. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division.

3. Raging Sea. As the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the second choice at the betting window, she did exactly what was expected of her. Before the Distaff she barely edged out a win in the Beldame (G2), but her standout performance this season came when she pulled off an upset over Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1).

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season.

5. Sweet Azteca. Stunningly was off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Didn’t run in the Breeders’ Cup.

Next five: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn.

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. Before the Breeders’ Cup he was the model of consistency in this division, but he finally seized his moment in style, decisively winning the Classic against Fierceness and Forever Young. The claim that Sierra Leone got lucky thanks to a hot early pace is just wrong. Every speed metric, especially those factoring in pace and trip, confirmed he ran the best race. Sierra Leone covered extra ground, and let’s not ignore the reality that the other early frontrunners held on for second, third and fourth. That’s not luck. That’s running the best race. Now the real debate begins. Can he snag the Eclipse in this division? Absolutely, and I don’t see any reason why shouldn’t.

2. Fierceness. He put in a stellar performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, running close to the quick early pace before holding strong to finish a game runner-up to rival Sierra Leone. Many believe his two Grade 1 victories should be enough to clinch the Eclipse in this division, but I’m not ready to hand it over just yet. The debate between these top two is far from over. Expect serious pondering in the weeks to come.

3. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers (G1) as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race because of his premature retirement, he will stay in my rankings for now, because he is in the top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

4. Forever Young. Surprisingly, Forever Young found himself near the blistering pace of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, far from his usual late-running style. Although he lacked his trademark late kick, he still finished third, beaten by less than three lengths. It’s clear he’s among the elite in this division.

5. Seize the Grey. Never got to the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and he subsequently finished eighth, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths. The Preakness winner previously scored a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and will finish the season with a record of 9: 4-0-1.

Next five: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Domestic Product, Dragoon Guard, Catching Freedom.

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she coasted to victory over the weakest field in the event’s 41 runnings. Her win was expected, and although I applaud her impressive 2024 season, let’s keep some perspective here. She faced a historically weak 3-year-old fillies division, but she beat who was lined up against her. Now with the lack of a dominant horse in other divisions, she will win horse of the year. Sure, she might be the best we’ve seen in the last five years, since Monomoy Girl to be exact. But the hype calling her an all-time great among 3-year-old fillies is just that. Hype.

2. Candied. Ran a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, finishing as expected as she was the third betting choice. Prior to the Distaff she finished a solid third in the Spinster (G1) behind Idiomatic. That came on the heels of runner-up finishes in two straight Grade 1 races. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks and followed that with a runner-up in the Alabama. She also took home the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth before that. She has consistently knocked on the door.

3. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion (G1), beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama, in which she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

4. Sugar Fish. Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she was beaten by a little over six lengths. Before that she scored a big win in the Zenyatta (G2), becoming the first in her division to defeat older rivals in a meaningful race. Earlier she scored an open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2).

5. Gun Song. Narrowly lost another one, this time in the Mother Goose (G2) last out to Tarifa. Before that she nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has only one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

Next five: Tarifa, Ways and Means, Leslie’s Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road.

Turf males

1. Johannes. Ran great in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing ahead of everyone except More Than Looks. No other has done enough to unseat him from this spot, so as of now he will get my no. 1 vote for the Eclipse in this division. Before the Mile he scored in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season.

2. Carl Spackler. He too never really got on track in the Mile. Finishing sixth, beaten by a little over two lengths, he didn’t run badly at all, so he maintains this spot based on his résumé this season. Before the Breeders’ Cup he notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile at Keeneland.

3. Far Bridge. Never really got on track in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, finishing ninth but beaten by only five lengths. Before that he was on a two-race winning streak. After a slow start to his season Far Bridge won the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1).

4. More Than Looks. No, he won’t be ranked no. 1 here with one win in 2024. Sure, it was a big win, but let’s not forget he had only two other starts this season and was runner-up to Carl Spackler in both. Now retired, he falls short of my top three on the Eclipse ballot.

5. Cogburn. After going 3-for-3 this season, he dropped the ball in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, finishing a lackluster fifth. Given that, he likely deserves an even bigger drop. And with major turf races still on the horizon, he just might get it.

Next five: Measured Time, Master of the Seas, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott, Nation’s Pride.

Turf females

1. Moira. A fan-favorite win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf finally gave her a Grade 1 win after six attempts. But now what? This division is a mess with no filly truly dominating all year. Does she deserve the Eclipse? I’m not sold yet. In the 45-year history of this award, only four have taken it with only one Grade 1 win.

2. Didia. Bounced back strongly from two recent letdowns to nearly steal the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing a close third, just a half-length off the winner. The Just a Game (G1) winner from Belmont Stakes weekend reclaimed her spot in the top five, where she has belonged for most of the season.

3. Gina Romantica. Was super impressive last out in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, defeating Chili Flag and Whitebeam for her second win in this race in as many years. Gina has made a habit of showing up at Keeneland, winning a Grade 1 there three years in a row. She is entered to race Sunday in the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar.

4. War Like Goddess. Came up short again in a Breeders’ Cup race, this time finishing fifth behind Moira in the Filly & Mare Turf, beaten by a little over two lengths. Before that effort she ran very well in the Joe Hirsch (G1) against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She ran well in her previous four starts this season but managed to win only once.

5. Whitebeam. She couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw in a clunker, finishing ninth in the First Lady when the spotlight was on her. That kind of performance knocked her out of the no. 1 spot. This summer she was on top of the world after winning the Diana (G1) against the deepest field of female turf horses we’ve seen this year. Before that she was runner-up in two graded stakes, so it’s not like she’s been off her game. But that First Lady flop? I didn’t see that coming.

Next five: Anisette, Chili Flag, Beauté Cachée, Beautiful Love, Full Count Felicia.

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), in which he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Missed the Breeders’ Cup but is 5-for-6 this year with all his wins in stakes that included the Bing Crosby (G1). Gets my vote for the Eclipse in division.

2. Straight No Chaser. Scored a big win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024. No, he doesn’t vault to no. 1 in these rankings. His only other win of the season was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), and his only other start this season was an off-the-board finish at Aqueduct in the Runhappy (G3).

3. Mullikin. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he was beaten by three lengths. Before that he scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-10 in his career.

4. Gun Pilot. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he was just a head behind Mullikin, to whom he was runner-up in the Forego one race prior and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier this season he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Nakatomi. Disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint as he never really got going, finishing sixth. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga earlier this season. Before that he ran third in both of his starts.

Next five: Federal Judge, Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Post Time, Skelly.

Female sprinters

1. Soul of an Angel. Closed like a rocket to capture the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Could that give her Eclipse? It’s hard not to be impressed by a mare who threw it down 10 times this year against the best in her own division and among older dirt females. She proved her versatility with a sprint win in the Princess Rooney (G3) and a mile score in the Ruffian (G2) earlier this season, when she topped Randomized. She’s earned her stripes, and right now she’s my Eclipse pick in a division begging for a standout.

2. Society. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as the favorite, she came up just short, losing by a half-length. She scored her first win of 2024 in a big one a race before, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina (G1). In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

3. Vahva. Biggest disappointment of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint was this gal as she finished eighth. Before that she was third behind Society in the Ballerina. But she stays ranked here because of her earlier successes. She delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

4. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. When she is on her game she is among the best in this division.

5. Ways and Means. Found the waters a bit too deep in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she checked in fifth. Last out she scored a win against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before that she had an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win.

Next five: Scylla, Spirit Wind, Pleasant, One Magic Philly, Zeitlos.

2-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Very impressive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he never really was threatened and cruised to a gate-to-wire win. That’s two consecutive Grade 1s on the front end following his impressive American Pharoah (G1) score. With a 3-for-4 record he’s locked in as the Eclipse winner for his division. No debate needed.

2. Gaming. Followed his stablemate Citizen Bull around the oval in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to finish a clear runner-up, more than three lengths clear of the others. The Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner is 2-for-3 this season.

3. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he stays near the top here. Why? Because those first three starts were impressive with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on.

4. East Avenue. He blew the break in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and for a horse who clearly needs the lead, that was game over. But here’s the thing. Champions don’t get excuses for missed break. They adapt and still make a race of it. He didn’t, winding up ninth. Before that he looked strong, going gate to wire in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for his second straight win.

5. Jonathan’s Way. A mild disappointment in the Breeder’s Cup, he finished seventh. Before that he won the Iroquois (G3) going wire to wire. He is 2-for-3 in his career going into the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Next five: Getaway Car, Ferocious, Showcase, Sovereignty, Rated by Merit.

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she’s a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career.

2. Vodka With a Twist. Runner-up again, this time to Immersive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Gotta love seeing a 2-year-old filly with six starts already. This one’s 2-for-6, and although she hasn’t snagged a win in her last three outings, she’s been knocking on the door as runner-up in the Sorrento (G3) and Del Mar Debutante (G1). Consistent, but still waiting to land the big one.

3. Scottish Lassie. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was over nine lengths clear of the others. Before that she blew away the Frizette (G1) field by nine lengths.

4. Quickick. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, this daughter of McKinzie finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades (G1) one start earlier.

5. Non Compliant. Now unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup.

Next five: Quietside, La Cara, Tenma, Nooni, With the Angels.

Like it or not, National Treasure should win Eclipse

For some of you, reading the next few lines might feel like that
dreaded moment when your mom shoved that foul-tasting cough syrup down your
throat while you were sick. But hey, we all survived that, didn’t we? 

National Treasure has been at the top of his division in
these rankings since his Met Mile (G1) win back in June. No one’s come close to
dethroning him, even though he hasn’t won a race since. Don’t believe me? Let’s
break it down. 

National Treasure is the only older dirt male with
multiple Grade 1 wins in 2024, both the Pegasus and the Met Mile. Sure, he has
one glaring misstep, that sixth-place finish in the Whitney (G1) over a sloppy
track. But every other contender I looked at has at least one
similar flop on his record.

To top it off, in his final race of the season,
National Treasure missed a third Grade 1 win by a head in the California Crown.
So yeah, he was a head away from locking up this Eclipse despite the built-in
bias against his trainer Bob Baffert. It’s a shame, really, because this award
should be about the horses, not the humans. 

Let’s see how the other contenders compare. By the
way, don’t expect a late-season miracle to steal this Eclipse. Not a single
horse left on the track is in position to take down National Treasure. But,
there is one horse who, with a win this week, could very well earn a spot on
my Eclipse ballot. Stay tuned. 

Subsanador resides at No. 2 on my list, just below but still
far from National Treasure. He did manage to edge out National Treasure by a
head in the California Crown (G1), but let’s not get carried away. Before that,
he had a mixed season with a win in the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth and a
runner-up finish to Newgate in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) but also a
forgettable showing in Mr. Fisk’s Hollywood Gold Cup. If he comes back strong
in 2025, sure, he’ll be one to watch. But in 2024? No way he belongs above
National Treasure on any Eclipse ballot. 

Like National Treasure, Newgate also falls under the
watchful eye of Baffert, which means he’s probably already disqualified
from many a ballot before we even start. It’s a shame, really, because Newgate quietly
had a solid season. He was a runner-up in the San Pasqual (G2) in January,
followed by his Big ’Cap victory.

Sure, he was practically invisible in the
Dubai World Cup (G1), but he came back strong in the California Crown, where he was
a head and a nose away from victory, finishing third to the top two ranked
horses in this division. In the Breeders’ Cup Classic he was in the thick of
the action and finished stronger than anyone else in this division, taking fourth. But let’s be real. Does his résumé top National Treasure’s? Of course
not, but as of this writing he will be on my ballot as the no. 3 horse. 

Arthur’s Ride? Come on, folks. His three Grade 1 starts tell
the story. His lone win in the sloppy-track Whitney? An aberration. In his
other two attempts, he was nowhere to be found, finishing sixth in the Jockey Club Gold
Cup (G1) and a distant 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Yeah, I’m
passing on him. 

Highland Falls? Sure, he was better than Arthur’s Ride. He
lost both his meetings with Newgate. He did manage to run well in
a few races in winning the Blame Stakes (G3) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) plus a
couple of runner-up finishes in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Monmouth Cup
(G3). But he missed his chance at the Eclipse in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Finishing ninth, beaten by over 14 lengths? Pass. 

Señor Buscador had a brief stint at the top of this division
in the spring thanks to a solid trio of races. He had a runner-up finish to National
Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup, a win in the Saudi Cup and a third in the
Dubai World Cup. But here’s the kicker. He couldn’t manage a single win on U.S.
soil in 2024. After three straight off-the-board finishes, it’s safe to say his
American season was a bust. Pass. 

I honestly have no idea how Post Time even made it into this
conversation. It’s a real stretch verging on malpractice, but here we are. No,
Post Time can’t win the Eclipse or even make it onto a ballot. Sure, he ran
eight times this year, which is a rare feat in itself in this day and age, and
he was never off the board in those races, but let’s not kid ourselves. He
snagged a total of two graded-stakes wins, both sprints with the General George (G3)
in February and the Carter (G2) in April. Apparently his 11 1/2-length win in the
Polynesian Stakes at Laurel Park in September, when he defeated what amounted
to four optional claimers, sent shockwaves to his fans. Yes, he finished second
in the Met Mile (G1) in June to National Treasure, and yes, he grabbed another
runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) behind Full Serrano. But
come on, this isn’t an Eclipse contender. 

What about Full Serrano? Before his Breeders’
Cup Dirt Mile win, I’m willing to wager that you hadn’t even heard of
him let alone seen him run a full race. Nice horse, for sure, and maybe in 2025
he can make some noise. That victory in the Dirt Mile was his first stakes win
of 2024. And that’s all you really need to know. That fact alone should have
him nowhere near this conversation. 

Did I hear some say what about Next? Ah, good ol’ Next, the
media and fan darling who made a career out of collecting checks in niche
marathon races, beating up on overmatched competition. He was fine there, a fun
horse to watch, but then the pressure mounted, and his connections caved, pushing
him into the deep end of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It was a distance that wasn’t in
his wheelhouse, facing a level of competition he’d never even come close to
facing.

Let’s not forget, Next was placed in those marathon events because he
flopped at the shorter distances, not even against the best, mind you. So naturally, when he was thrown into the big leagues, it ended in a total
disaster, dead last in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That was his first and only
Grade 1 attempt of the year, and in his other four starts, he didn’t face a
single horse with a Grade 1 dirt win in their careers. Two listed stakes, a
Grade 2, and a Grade 3 are the highlight reel. But fear not, fans, Next will
return to his familiar marathon distances next season, where I hope he can
happily put this disaster behind him. So no, he can’t be considered for an
Eclipse in this division. 

Finally, let’s end on a high note. What about Hit Show? If
someone had told me just a few months ago after his seventh-place finish at
Prairie Meadows that I’d even be considering him for my Eclipse ballot, I
would’ve laughed. But here we are. Given the current state of this division,
Hit Show might just race his way onto my ballot Friday. Since that
disastrous Cornhusker Handicap (G3), he’s rattled off three straight graded-stakes wins, the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes (G3), the Lukas Classic (G2),
and the Fayette (G2). Sure, he hasn’t faced the toughest competition in the
division, but no one else can say they’ve won three straight graded stakes in this division.
Now he’ll go for his fourth in the Clark (G2) at Churchill, and
if he pulls it off, I’ll have to seriously consider him for no. 3 on my ballot. 

For those who think National Treasure’s résumé doesn’t stack
up for an Eclipse, take a look at the 2002 and 2007 winners in this division.
Lawyer Ron in 2007 had a very similar season to National Treasure with two Grade 1
wins and a disappointing finish in a major event, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Then there’s Left Bank, whose 2002 résumé might be the lightest of any
Eclipse winner in this category. He had only one Grade 1 win from four starts and was off the
board in his only other Grade 1 attempt that year.

Despite the constant criticism that the now retired National Treasure
has faced over the past three seasons, this guy’s had a pretty solid career.
Sure, he only won four races, but he made them count. He placed in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at age 2, won the Preakness, and narrowly lost to horse of the year Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at 3. This
year he added the Pegasus and Met Mile to his list.

While past seasons don’t
factor into this year’s Eclipse decisions, it’s worth noting that maybe, just
maybe, National Treasure has been a bit underappreciated. At least that’s how
I see it.