Just eight months ago, Mystik Dan shocked the racing world,
storming home at 18-1 to wear the roses at Churchill Downs. In the immediate aftermath of the Kentucky Derby, the question on every racing fan’s mind was clear. Given his upset win,
was this just another one-and-done Derby winner?

Looking at the rankings of the older dirt male horses below, Mystik Dan’s absence is notable. But there are three ranked horses set to compete in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup this weekend: Locked, Stronghold and White Abarrio.

Older dirt males

1. Sierra Leone. He brought his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, beating Fierceness and Forever Young decisively. Critics claiming luck are wrong. Metrics confirm he ran the best race, covering extra ground while early leaders filled the board. He deserves the Eclipse and will target the Group 1 Saudi Cup next.

2. Fierceness. He ran a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, backing up two earlier Grade 1 wins that spark Eclipse debate with Sierra Leone. The decision is far from settled. Likely off until spring.

3. Locked. Missed most of his 3-year-old season after being one of the top 2-year-olds of 2023 when he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Fierceness. Will be favored in in this weekend’s Pegasus World Cup.

4. Stronghold. This guy had a sneaky good 3-year-old season and is a serious contender in the Pegasus World Cup this weekend.

5. Hit Show. Started off his season right with a win in last weekend’s Louisiana Stakes (G3). This guy has won graded stakes in four of his last five starts.

Next five: Subsanador, Full Serrano, Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Rattle N Roll

Let’s face the cold hard truth. Being a Kentucky Derby
winner isn’t what it used to be. It’s been 346 weeks since we’ve
seen a Derby winner win anything after their big day. The last to pull
it off? Justify in 2018. Authentic’s September 2020 Derby win during the Covid schedule
doesn’t really count in this context. Country House never saw the winner’s
circle again after his controversial DQ victory in 2019. Mandaloun,
retroactively crowned the 2021 champ, didn’t fare much better. Mage and Rich
Strike were 0-for-9 combined post-Derby. 

Mystik Dan is now at a crossroads. Can he defy what has become the norm and add his name to what
is becoming a much shorter list of Kentucky Derby winners who
won another race and who went on to success as an older horse? Only
three this century have, Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom and California Chome.

The Pegasus could be his chance to prove the roses weren’t a
fluke or to confirm what so many fear, that a win in the Kentucky Derby isn’t quite
what it used to be.

Can Mystik Dan turn back the clock and find his best form to contend and be competitive in the Pegasus World Cup? At first glance, the answer has to be no.

His last two starts have been the worst in his 10-race
career. And although the Malibu (G1) last out was his first race in several months, his
last-place finish looks even worse given that he was eight lengths behind the
second-to-last-place horse. This Pegasus is a tough assignment for Mystik Dan,
his optimistic 8-1 morning line aside. More than half the field has been faster
in races and show better recent form. 

White Abarrio appears to be the horse to beat on his home
track, along with Locked. White Abarrio seems to have rediscovered his mojo
under the watchful eye of his old pal, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. If he
duplicates the form he has shown in his last two starts, then he will be tough to
beat. A win here, and he’s back at the top of the heap in this division,
reclaiming his throne after vacating it a year ago around this time. 

Locked also could move to the top spot with a win. Fresh
off a convincing win in the Cigar Mile (G2), he’s got the momentum and will be
favored. Stronghold has been very good, finishing no worse than second in nine of 10 career starts, and he was runner-up in the Malibu. Stronghold
is a contender here as well. 

The Pegasus is a tall order for Mystik Dan, but then again
the Kentucky Derby was too, so all hope is not lost. If he flops again, maybe
it’s time to consider greener pastures. A switch to grass might be just the career reboot he needs given his action over sloppy tracks. Or perhaps a class drop to get his
confidence back, much like what revitalized White Abarrio’s career.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Distaff, she cruised to victory over a weak field. Although her 2024 season was impressive, she faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division. She’ll win horse of the year, but the hyperbole is somewhat over the top. She starts this season as an easy choice to lead this division and could run next in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn on March 8.

2. Raging Sea. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she delivered as expected. Her 2024 highlight was upsetting Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1). She starts this season here in this spot far back of the leader.

3. Power Squeeze. She was seventh in the Cotillion (G1) behind Thorpedo Anna but won the Alabama (G1) by a head over Candied. She won three graded stakes in 2024 and ended her season with a runner-up finish in the Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream. She is going to run in the Pegasus World Cup against the males, where she will a big long shot with little chance to contend.

4. Candied. She was third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Spinster (G1) after Grade 1 runner-up finishes to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama. She’s consistently close, but her only win from six starts last season came in the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth.

5. Gun Song. She narrowly lost to Tarifa in the Mother Goose (G2) and almost upset the Cotillion after a strong rally before that. I expect her to contend in this division this season.

Next five: Sugar Fish, Tarifa, Soul of an Angel, Kopion, Leslie’s Rose

3-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for a gate-to-wire win. That followed his American Pharoah (G1) victory. With a 3-for-4 record last season, he starts this season on top.

2. Journalism. This son of Curlin looked very good defeating a solid field last out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He was 2-for-3 last season.

3. Barnes. Already has won a graded stakes this season, last out in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita. This highly regarded son of Into Mischief might run next at Oaklawn.

4. Gaming. Ran a distant third to Journalism in the Los Alamitos Futurity. That effort came after a strong runner-up to his stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner finished 2-for-4 in 2024.

5. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he had a very good 2-year-old season. Those first three starts were impressive, with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on.

Next seven: East Avenue, Rated by Merit, Disco Time, Sovereignty, Getaway Car, Jonathan’s Way, Built

3-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she’s a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career. On the shelf now for a while and will drop from this spot soon.

2. Good Cheer. Won the Golden Rod (G2) last out impressively to run her record to 4-for-4.

3. Muhimma. Was 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old, winning the Demoiselle Stakes (G2). Should be a major player in this division.

4. Non Compliant. Unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

5. Scottish Lassie. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was over nine lengths clear of the others. Before that she blew away the Frizette (G1) field by nine lengths.

Next five: Quickick, Quietside, Tenma, La Cara, Vodka With a Twist

Turf males

1. Johannes. Won another race last out, this time the San Gabriel (G2). He finished 2024 with five graded stakes wins from six starts. His only loss was a second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, behind only More Than Looks. The likely Eclipse winner from this division for 2024 is now sidelined with an injury.

2. Carl Spackler. He finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, just over two lengths back, but had a solid season last year with two Grade 1 wins.

3. Far Bridge. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, beaten by five lengths, but had a strong two-race win streak prior, scoring in the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1). Back in 2025.

4. Nation’s Pride. Ran three times in this country last season, winning the Arlington Million (G1) and placing in two other graded stakes. Will run this weekend in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1).

5. Formidable Man. Won the Hollywood Derby (G1) last out and before that won the Del Mar Derby (G2). Those came against 3-year-olds, and now he faces open company for the first time in the Pegasus World Cup Turf this weekend.

Next five: Integration, Measured Time, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott, Motorious

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Starts the season on top here after capping off her 3-year-old season with back-to-back grade 1 wins in the Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita.

2. Sacred Wish. The Matriarch (G1) winner last out, she placed in three other graded stakes in 2024. Will be among the favorites in this weekend’s Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

3. Raqiya. Won the Goldikova (G3) last out in her first start in this country. Will run in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) this weekend and may be favored in a wide open race.

4. AG Bullet. Third last out in the Matriarch, and before that she was third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

5. Kathynmarissa. Runner-up in the American Oaks last out, she has placed in all four of the stakes races she has run in.

Next five: Star of Mystery, Fluffy Socks, Prerequisite, Be Your Best, Ocean Club

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. Won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024. His only other win was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), with an off-the-board finish in the Runhappy (G3). He will start the season here on top.

2. Mullikin. Finished second in the Cigar Mile behind Locked after a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He earned his first Grade 1 win in the Forego and first graded win in the Nerud (G2). The 4-year-old colt is 5-for-10 in his career and will be back in 2025.

3. The Chosen Vron. Despite a close second in the Pat O’Brien (G2), his first loss in six starts last season, his record remains impressive, 19 wins from 25 starts, 18 in stakes. Missed the Breeders’ Cup but went 5-for-6 last year, including the Bing Crosby (G1). Will be back in 2025.

4. Raging Torrent. Nice winner of the Malibu last out for his first Grade 1 win. Was 4-for-7 last season.

5. Bentornato. Scratched from the Malibu, he previously finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and won the Gallant Bob (G2) last September.

Next five: Gun Pilot, Nakatomi, Mufasa, Federal Judge, Book’em Danno