One week after the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes lit the fuse on the Kentucky Derby championship series with an $88.40 winner, $1,313-1 exacta, $6,849-1 trifecta and $53,987-1 superfecta, the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Saturday at Oaklawn looks poised for big balloons of its own with a competitive 14-horse field.

Based on the morning line, the public and I will agree on the most likely winner, with Sandman 4-1 on the morning line and 5-1 on my fair odds line. That makes the Southwest Stakes (G3) runner-up an underlay in the win pool, but I think there will be some utility to using him with whatever long price makes the most sense.

The winners of the local preps, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Coal Battle and Southwest winner Speed King, both are likely to take money. But the former never has run as fast as half of these and is stuck on the rail, and the latter is sure to face a lot more pace pressure here with the presences of Innovator and Smoken Wicked.

Of course, West Coast shippers always attract attention, too, and when Bob Baffert happens to train one of them that likely deflates the odds. I put Madaket Road in a similar bucket as Sandman, a reliable horse who can be used with long shots. Madaket Road figures to get a better setup here than what he faced last time against champion stablemate Citizen Bull.

Bullard is the other West Coast shipper and can be competitive here. I have no idea where his price will land. The morning line has him as the 5-1 third choice, and the Horse Racing Nation line projected him in the low double digits. The former feels too low but the latter feels too high.

So who are the potential long shots to like? Dreaminblue is 15-1 morning line and is better than that to my eye. His lone two-turn attempt was in a short-stretch race at Oaklawn, and really had no kick after chasing a fast pace four wide from post 10. He then could not corral Innovator on the cutback before drawing out last out. I don’t know whether he wants to go much farther than these 8 1/2 furlongs, but he will get a nice setup here.

Smoken Wicked and Innovator figure to keep Speed King company early, and I prefer either of them to the Southwest winner. Smoken Wicked is a Louisiana bred by the Speightstown sire Bobby’s Wicked One out of a Street Boss mare. Street Boss is Dreaminblue’s sire, so there are similar distance questions with this one. But of the early pace types in the field, Smoken Wicked does have the best late-pace ratings, so maybe he is able to hang on for a piece. Innovator will be a much bigger number, and I’m willing to keep trying him as long as the price is right.

Wagering-wise, I expect there to be opportunity playing either Dreaminblue or Innovator to hit the board with two of Sandman, Madaket Road, Bullard and Smoken Wicked, which is $20 per spot in the tri that I use Dreaminblue and Innovator.