We all know the score when it comes to Kentucky Derby prep races in California. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is likely to have not only the favorite but also other top choices.

So it goes with the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, where Baffert entered half the field for the 1 1/16-mile race worth 50 points to the winner. His entries include Barnes, the even-money favorite on the morning line, and 9-5 second choice Rodriguez.

Both colts are looking for their first win on the road to the Kentucky Derby. With only one more opportunity between now and the first Saturday in May, this could be a case of let the best horse win. I do not think the non-Baffert-trained Journalism is the best horse, but I do think he is the best bet.

Las Vegas bookmaker Caesars Entertainment and its customers mostly agree with that pecking order. Barnes is the current 8-1 Derby favorite, with Rodriguez the 20-1 sixth choice and Journalism the 22-1 seventh choice. I have Barnes and Rodriguez as my second and third choices, respectively, with Journalism ranked seventh.

All that is to say, I think there exists ample evidence that Journalism will be the value in the San Felipe. I expect both Barnes and Rodiguez to be lower than their morning line. Journalism might be too, but that would make the prices on the other three outrageous in a six-horse field. 

Journalism is in less of a points crunch than the others by virtue of his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) win to close out his 2-year-old season. The horse he beat there, Baffert-trained Getaway Car, returned two weeks ago to win the Sunland Derby in a fast time. Funny enough, Journalism finished behind Smooth Cruisein and Mellencamp on debut, but the odds would be astronomical for that to happen again here.

Based on Brisnet Pace Ratings, any of Baffert’s three could be on the lead here. Jockey Umberto Rispoli’s job with Journalism will be not to get too far out of touch with whomever the leader is, given the short field and that two Baffert runners will have him surrounded. This is a very strict 7-2 fair-odds line, and I will have no problem passing if he is shorter than that and betting Rodriguez if he drifts.

From a Kentucky Derby perspective, I am most interested in Rodriguez, who took a minor step back last out when chasing Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). He has a faster race to get back to, though, and getting there could set him up for a breakthrough in the spring.