Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile

Much like the Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been owned by European horses with wins in the last six races. However, one of those six was U.S.-based Uni, trained by Chad Brown. The last three runnings have been swept by trainer Aidan O’Brian and Jockey William Buick with Charley Appleby winning the race four years ago.

The Favorite

It’s no shock that the favorite is the Aidan O’Brien-trained, William Buick-ridden #6 Notable Speech as they try to go for four in a row. Notable Speech is a three-year-old, who actually considered the road to the Kentucky Derby before focusing on this race. He’s run seven times in his life, all this year, all at a mile, with five victories in those starts. His last two races have been against older horses and include a win in the Sussex stakes, a strong Group 1 race in Europe. He will be one of the higher priced favorites of the weekend at 7-2.

The Contenders 

This race is loaded with contenders. Fillies #1 Ramatuelle and #7 Porta Fortuna both took similar paths to the Breeders’ Cup and have the talent to win. Porta Fortuna has beaten Ramatuelle twice, but both were very close. Each had one prep off the layoff heading into this start, both impressive wins, with Ramatuelle beating the boys in a Grade 1 stakes. The main difference is their records at a mile. Porta Fortuna is three of five with two seconds while Ramatuelle has finished third in two efforts. 

#12 Carl Spackler will look to make it four wins in a row for US-based trainer Chad Brown. While he is US-based, he’s European-bred much like Uni. The post is less than ideal for a horse who wants to be on or near the lead and has plenty of speed to his inside. His last two wins have been impressive, but the waters get a lot deeper here. 

West Coast champion #9 Johannes enters the race on a four-race win streak and is undefeated at today’s distance. He’s improved through his four-year-old season and loves California, where he’s undefeated on the turf in seven starts. He’s the U.S.’s best shot to break the Euro dominance. 

It’s rare that I make it through five horses and haven’t mentioned my top pick, but here we are. #4 Diego Velazquez is the “other” Aiden O’Brien who has greatly improved late in his three-year-old season. He was originally being pointed to the Turf, but cut back in distance after a weak effort at one mile and a half at Ascot in June. Since then, he is 2-for-2, including a win at this mile distance over older horses. All the makings are here for a career effort and the price is right at 8-1.

The Longshots

With contention running so deep at the top — five horses are under 10-1 — it’s tougher here to find viable longshots, but there are definitely a couple worth mentioning. #2 Chili Flag seems to be improving with age like many Chad Brown mares do. The mile is her preferred distance and the 20-1 price is the second-highest of her career. She’s never been higher than 4.9-1 at a mile. Yes, this is the toughest field she will face, but she drew well for her closing style and there will be pace on. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard and he has guided her to all four of her wins on US soil. It may be tough for her to get to the wire first, but she is an exotics threat. 

#8 More Than Looks will also be breaking at the highest price of her career. She’s run two very good second-place finishes in her two starts this year, losing to Carl Spackler in both races. However, both of those races lacked the pace, so her trip projects to be much better today with her rolling late. She ran a solid sixth in this race last year from the 12 post so the draw is much better for her today.

The Picks

While I respect Notable Speech, I am going with Diego Velazquez on top here. His effort at a mile last time out showed he is more than capable of handling the shorter distance and the fact that O’Brien ships in here despite having the favorite is a vote of confidence. Of the fillies, I like Porta Fortuna more. She is more accomplished at the distance and has more early speed which should help. Americans Johannes and More Than Looks will also make my tickets.

The Bets 

Win – Diego Velazquez

Exactas – Box 4 and 6

Triple –  4 and 6 over 4, 5, 7 and 8 over 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9

Picks – 4-6-7-8