Breeders’ Cup Distaff

There were questions as to whether or not trainer Kenny McPeek would point Thorpedo Anna to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and run her against the boys once again, but he has opted for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She’ll look to hold off nine other challengers at 1 ⅛ miles with a 4:21 p.m. ET post time on Saturday.

The hope was that we’d see a battle between Thorpedo Anna (4-5 morning line favorite) and Idiomatic, who was last year’s Distaff champ, but she retired about a week before the race. That leaves Raging Sea (7-2) from the 6 post and Awesome Result (4-1) from Japan as the top contenders.

Awesome Result is a perfect 7-for-7 and she drew the 9 post for this one. She’s been a closer on the other side of the Pacific and is undoubtedly a strong horse, but the speed and pace of this race could be problematic, as she’s faced lesser competition and horses that couldn’t get out in front far enough to hold her off.

Raging Sea is a 4-year-old filly by way of Curlin and Stormy Welcome and she has had three huge performances in a row with wins in the G2 Beldame, G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga (beat Idiomatic), and G2 Shuvee. Like Thorpedo Anna, she’s coming west for the first time, with all of her starts in New York or Kentucky. She’s won six of her last seven and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies two years ago.

Chad Brown, who is a three-time runner-up in the Distaff, has one of his favorite riders in the mount with Flavien Prat on Raging Sea. She had a bit of a hangover with a speed figure drop after besting Idiomatic, but she’s the top challenger to Thorpedo Anna bar none. It is also worth pointing out that Raging Sea has won five times in six races at 1 ⅛ miles, coming up short in the G1 Ogden Phipps with a fourth-place finish back in June.

Candied from the Todd Pletcher barn has the rail post as she wraps up what has been a disappointing, yet somewhat prosperous, year. She’s been runner-up twice in G1 efforts after finishing third to Just F Y I and Jody’s Pride in last year’s Juvenile Fillies romp at Santa Anita. While she’s hit the board in four straight, the speed figures just haven’t been there. She’s making money and has the chance to factor in exotics here, but it feels like Irad Ortiz Jr. won’t have enough horsepower for the elusive Distaff victory, as he’s 0-for-7 so far.

All in all, this race, as most of them have seemed to be during her 3-year-old campaign, is Thorpedo Anna’s to lose. Her only 2024 defeat was by a narrow margin in the G1 Travers to Fierceness, but she was excellent in that mile and a quarter race. Maybe a little bit of fatigue hit with a close win in the Cotillion in September at Parx, as she only won by a neck as an overwhelming favorite, but she was on less than a month of rest for the first time this year. When she’s had over a month, she’s won the Kentucky Oaks, Acorn Stakes, Coaching Club American Oaks, and had that second-place effort in the Travers with a big speed number.

This is actually her longest layoff of the season and her workouts have looked crisp and clear. McPeek has never won a Breeders’ Cup race. It sure seems fitting for it to be this one and with this horse.

Are there any interesting long shots here? Probably not, but Alice Verite (30-1) is the other Japanese import and she’s making her dirt debut in the Distaff. She’s hit the board 15 times in 20 career starts and should have no problem with the distance, having run at a mile and a quarter throughout the year. She’s likely to run up front early and endurance isn’t an issue. She could attend the party in trifectas and superfectas.

Sugar Fish (20-1) for Tyler Baze and Jeff Mullins is the other long shot with life. Unlike most of the others, the SoCal-based filly didn’t have to be shipped. She’s won three of four, but the distant sixth-place finish in the G1 Clement L. Hirsch with top females like Adare Manor and Scylla isn’t a good sign for this race. She’s run well at Santa Anita, but has looked uncomfortable in two Del Mar starts.

I’ll say Thorpedo Anna does her thing, with Raging Sea second and surprise Alice Verite third. Sugar Fish fills out the super.

Picks: 2-6-4-5 (Thorpedo Anna, Raging Sea, Alice Verite, Sugar Fish)