Davis Cup Malaga semifinals (played on indoor hard courts)

Italy – Australia: 23.11.2024 13:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1

1st potential matchup:

Musetti – Kokkinakis

Lorenzo Musetti has lost three of his last five matches. His last match before the Davis Cup was almost a month ago in Paris, where he lost in the opening round against Struff in straight sets. Before that, Lorenzo had a solid tournament in Vienna, where he reached the semifinals. So far this season, Musetti has had some solid results, such as reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon and winning the bronze medal in the Olympic Games. Here in Malaga, Musetti underperformed in his opening match, losing against Cerundolo in straight sets. On the other hand, Kokkinakis has won six straight matches. Two weeks ago in Sydney, Thanasi won the challenger tournament, winning against Hijikata in the final in straight sets. He has not dropped a single set throughout the whole tournament. Here in Malaga, Thanasi upset Shelton in his opening match, getting the advantage for Australia. Kokkinakis ended up winning the match in three sets, winning the deciding set 16-14 in a tiebreak. He even saved four match points in the deciding tiebreak.

We believe that at this moment, Thanasi is in better form than Musetti. After winning the challenger tournament in Sydney, Kokkinakis came fully confident into his opening match against the USA. We believe that he will stay confident and win once again for Australia.

That being said, we expect Kokkinakis to win the opening match for the Australians.

2nd potential matchup:

Sinner – de Minaur

Sinner is the best player in the world right now, and has been absolutely dominant throughout the whole season. Last week in Turin, Janik won the ATP Finals title, winning against Fritz in the final. This has been by far the best season for the young Italian. On the other hand, de Minaur lost five straight matches, and struggled in the ATP Finals. Here in Malaga, de Minaur lost his opening match against Fritz in straight sets. However, the Australian has also been consistent throughout the whole season and reached his career high of #6 earlier this season.

We believe that Sinner is by far the best player in the tournament right now. This will be a must-win for the Italians, so we expect him to step up and win this match.

That being said, we expect Jannik to get the first win for the Italians.

3rd potential matchup:

Berrettini/Sinner – Ebden/Thompson

Berrettini and Sinner have just played a couple of matches together. However, when it was most important for the Italians today against Argentina, they won the deciding match and qualified Italy into the semifinals. On the other hand, Ebden and Thompson are both experienced doubles players. Today, against the USA, Ebden and Thompson defeated Paul and Shelton in the deciding match and showed us how good they are.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, the Australians are the underdogs in this matchup. We believe that this will be a very close meeting, and that the Australians have a better doubles pair. We expect Thompson and Ebden to win the deciding match and qualify into the final.

That being said, Australia winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Australia winning @3.25 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports