The key to choosing a good Clutch Player winner is understanding the circumstances around him.

No, that doesn’t mean forecasting how many of his games will wind up in close-and-late situations; that’s basically impossible. The only thing less predictable year-to-year than which players will perform in the clutch is how often teams will find themselves in those scenarios.

Instead, you have to choose someone who doesn’t have competition for offensive primacy when games are within five points in the last five minutes. Several of the top options (DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, Tyrese Maxey) have teammates ranked by oddsmakers in similarly high positions (De’Aaron Fox, Devin Booker and Paul George, respectively).

Paolo Banchero stands alone as the Orlando Magic’s offensive alpha. If anyone’s going to dominate late-game usage, it’ll be him.

In addition to plenty of opportunity and limited intra-team competition, Banchero has a game built for clutch success. He’s too quick for bigs and too big for wings. He has to be guarded honestly because he’s a willing and capable passer who averaged 5.4 assists per game last year. Best of all, Banchero is an adept foul-drawer who’s averaged at least 7.0 free-throw attempts in each of his two NBA seasons.

At 22, Banchero is a good bet to continue improving across the board. In addition to a much better crack at the Clutch Player award than his 24th-ranked odds suggest, expect a scoring average in the high 20s, good efficiency and another All-Star nod.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.