Thanks, selection committee, for teasing us with your top 16 seeds last Saturday.

One small issue, though: They held firm for, oh, less than a week.

Alabama — the No. 2 overall seed — has lost twice since the mock reveal, albeit to a pair of top-15 teams. Wisconsin, meanwhile, which barely clung to a 3-seed, has since carved up Purdue’s defense in historic fashion (on the road) and throttled Illinois. And Kansas, which the committee pegged as a No. 4, dropped back-to-back games to unranked teams, including the worst defeat of the Bill Self era.

1. A coaching hot-seat check-in …

Because, unfortunately, it’s also this time of year. And really, hot-seat SZN is already underway. Mike Woodson has already announced he’ll step down at Indiana after this season. Similarly, Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton announced he’s resigning after this season.

Who else might exit? A two-part list: one for the ACC alone (sadly), and everyone else.

The ACC (in alphabetical order)

Adrian Autry, Syracuse (11-16, 5-11 ACC)

Replacing a giant like Jim Boeheim is never easy, but as we’ve seen nationwide, elevating someone from within doesn’t always go so well. Autry also had the additional challenge of bucking Syracuse’s longtime zone defense. But Cuse — which has six Final Four appearances and did not have a single losing season from 1968-69 until 2021-22 — should still never be this bad. The Orange have only one top-100 win this season (at home vs. No. 97 Notre Dame) while sporting one of the worst defenses in the sport. Working in Autry’s favor, though?

1. It’s only his second season, and the team’s new general manager — Alex Kline, a well-respected former New York Knicks scout — didn’t join the program in time to truly assist in building this season’s roster.

2. Autry has two top-50 recruits incoming, including Kiyan Anthony, the son of Orange legend Carmelo Anthony. Temperature check: Getting warmer.

Hubert Davis, North Carolina (16-11, 9-6 ACC)

Davis took UNC to the national title game in his debut season and beat Mike Krzyzewski both in Coach K’s final home game and in the Final Four. He also led UNC to a regular-season ACC title and No. 1 seed last season, while being named ACC Coach of the Year. But Davis’ Tar Heels look poised to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. That’s a hard sell for a fan base that has missed the field only four times since 1975. I’ve maintained that barring the floor falling out in the next three weeks, Davis will be back — but recent blowout losses to Duke and Clemson have made that a tougher decision. Temperature check: Getting warmer.

Earl Grant, Boston College (11-15, 3-12 ACC)

One of the biggest losers in the transfer portal last offseason, Boston College doesn’t have the players to be competitive in a high-major league. Which stinks, because Grant was building, going from 13 to 16 to 20 wins his first three seasons … before plummeting back to earth this year. The Eagles look likely to miss the ACC tournament, and with no top-150 recruits incoming, there are no quick fixes around the corner. How many coaches get a fifth year without recent evidence of growth? Temperature check: Hot.

Kevin Keatts, NC State (10-16, 3-12 ACC)

It would be truly stunning if, one year after making its first Final Four in decades, NC State fired the coach who delivered that miracle run. While it’s not likely, the Wolfpack have been bad enough that it’s at least a possibility. NC State is unlikely to make the ACC tournament, a waste of what should’ve been an all-time wave of program momentum. Keatts’ team has lost 10 of its past 11 games and might be the worst squad he’s fielded in eight seasons in Raleigh.

Because of last season’s run, Keatts earned a contract extension that upped his buyout. And NC State probably can’t make such a consequential move with a retiring chancellor, whose term ends in June. But the basketball has been bad enough that Keatts will enter next season on the hot seat, if he survives. Temperature check: Lukewarm.

Everybody Else (in alphabetical order)

Johnny Dawkins, UCF (13-13, 4-11 Big 12)

Barring an all-time Big 12 tournament run, Dawkins will have one NCAA Tournament appearance in nine seasons at UCF. Jumping conferences to one of the deepest leagues in the country has contributed, but Dawkins also went 65-61 in the American. Dawkins brought in some interesting names this season, including former social media sensation Mikey Williams, but it hasn’t yielded results. The Knights (somehow) knocked off Texas A&M in their season opener and Texas Tech on the road, but seven straight losses have revealed just how far Dawkins’ team is from competing in the Big 12. Temperature check: Getting warmer.

Bobby Hurley, Arizona State (12-14, 3-12 Big 12)

Somehow, Arizona State has beaten three likely NCAA Tournament teams this season: Saint Mary’s, New Mexico and West Virginia. But Hurley, who feels perpetually on the hot seat, has now lost six straight and 11 of 13. Hurley has three NCAA Tournament appearances in his decade in Tempe — and probably would’ve had a fourth in 2020, had the Big Dance not been canceled — but back-to-back seasons of bottoming out are tough to overcome. Hurley secured the necessary NIL funds last offseason to add top freshmen Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon, but both have understandably battled inconsistency and ineffectiveness. A sixth losing season in 10 campaigns feels all-but guaranteed — and a change in leadership is starting to feel the same. Temperature check: Getting warmer.

Fran McCaffery, Iowa (14-12, 5-10 Big Ten)

McCaffery has still never made a single Sweet 16 with the Hawkeyes. Pockets of regular-season excellence and high-flying offenses have sustained his 15-year tenure, but Luka Garza and Keegan Murray aren’t walking back through that door, and the entire program feels stale. McCaffery was emotional after Iowa beat 13-14 Rutgers on the road, which really makes sense only if someone that established knows he’s near his end. The fan base is calling for it, the results warrant it and it seems like only a matter of time. Temperature check: Hot.

Porter Moser, Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC)

Four of Oklahoma’s past five coaches made at least one NCAA Tournament appearance in their first three seasons — but Moser, now in his fourth season, is looking for his first bid. Could that change? For sure; OU was one of the surprises of the nonconference, beating all of Arizona, Louisville and Michigan on neutral courts en route to a 13-0 start. But you can do the math between then and where the Sooners sit today: in a 3-10 slump in conference play, with the only “consequential” win being over fellow bubble squad Vanderbilt. OU can make the tournament if it pulls things together late. But a fourth consecutive losing season in conference play means all outcomes are in play. Temperature check: Lukewarm.

Kyle Neptune, Villanova (15-12, 8-8 Big East)

It’s a similar situation as Syracuse: a once-proud program that lost its Hall of Fame coach and has completely fallen off. But like the Orange, the Wildcats should never be this bad. Neptune went 35-33 his first two seasons, missing the NCAA Tournament both times, and there’s no chance the program will tolerate a third straight miss. Neptune has certainly been better this season — Nova beat UConn and St. John’s — but inexplicable nonconference losses to Columbia, Saint Joe’s and the worst Virginia team in a decade are impossible to overlook. Short of winning the Big East tournament, a coaching change appears inevitable. Temperature check: Hot.

2. The Final Four dark horse nobody saw coming

Your result of the week so far is No. 15 Missouri 110, No. 4 Alabama 98.

This was the sort of authoritative result that proves Missouri could make some noise come March. CJ Moore wrote a terrific story this week on Dennis Gates and how he’s engineered an all-time turnaround. The Tigers were 0-18 in the league last season and predicted to finish 13th in the preseason.

This Tamar Bates quote puts Missouri’s ascent in perfect context: “We had to be a participant in our own rescue.”

So what is it that makes Missouri so potent? The Tigers are the only Top 25 team, per Synergy, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in each of their top four most-frequent actions: spot-up shooting, transition offense, pick-and-roll ballhandlers and “miscellaneous plays” (such as drawn fouls and offense created following loose balls). The only other Top 25 teams that come close to that level of excellence and consistency? Florida (which ranks in the 84th percentile or better in its four most frequent actions), Purdue (81st percentile or better) and Wisconsin (80th percentile or better) — aka, the teams ranked fourth, 10th and sixth respectively in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. After Wednesday night, Mizzou’s in that same lofty company, at No. 8 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Missouri is tied with No. 1 Auburn — which has the highest adjusted offensive efficiency ever in the 29-season KenPom era — in points per possession, per Synergy.

Back to the Alabama game, though, that versatility was on display early and often. The Tigers jumped out to a 12-0 lead by dominating in transition. Other than a kickout 3 on the team’s first offensive possession, Missouri’s next nine points came via the fast break, where Gates’ team averages 1.171 PPP and shoots 71.4 percent from 2, per Synergy. On Mizzou’s second offensive possession, Bates grabbed the deflection on defense and immediately got out on the run, eventually drawing enough attention to swing it to Anthony Robinson — a low-volume but high-efficiency shooter — for an open 3:

The next possession, Robinson was again the beneficiary of his hustle, earning a goaltending call (although he realistically could have passed it to Mark Mitchell, too, for either a slam or potentially an alley-oop):

The next two possessions were more of the same, and were key to Missouri’s game-best 24 points in transition. But later in the first half, Missouri started to flex its other offensive strengths, too. Watch Caleb Grill (No. 31 in white, bottom left corner) make a baseline cut. Missouri used a slingshot action/screen between Bates and Grill — the sixth-best 3-point shooter in high-major hoops, who makes 45.7 percent of his 3s — to not only get Grill a wide-open 3 …

But also to leave Alabama’s defenders, Mark Sears and Jarin Stevenson, stuck in no man’s land while Grill cut back unabated for that open shot:

As for Missouri’s pick-and-roll handlers, Gates wisely had them exploit Alabama’s deep drop coverage, in this case against freshman Aiden Sherrell. Watch how closely Grill cut behind Sherrell (No. 22 in red). That’s intentional; it caused Grill’s defender, Mouhamed Dioubate, to run into Sherrell, which took both of them out of the play. By the time Tony Perkins started driving, the paint was wide open — and since Cliff Omoruyi (No. 11 in red) was slow helping off Trent Pierce in the corner, Perkins could take off:

The Tigers have three top-five wins in a season for the first time since 1988-89 — which was one of the four times in the modern era that Mizzou has made the Sweet 16.

At this point, that almost feels like a worst-case scenario for a Missouri team dreaming bigger dreams.

3. A scheduling quirk that’s a sign of the times

A relative rarity for your Saturday viewing plans: Duke vs. Illinois? In Madison Square Garden? In late February?

Huh?

The Blue Devils and Fighting Illini made the unconventional decision to schedule a neutral-site nonconference game in the middle of the league slate. Other teams, like Kentucky and Gonzaga last season, have scheduled nonconference games in February before, but almost never at a neutral site. Duke has dabbled in games like this in the past — most recently in 2018 and 2019, when it played a home-and-home against St. John’s in early February — but this is the program’s first neutral-site game this late in the calendar since Feb. 26, 1989, when current head coach Jon Scheyer was still in diapers.

The rationale makes more sense for Duke than for Illinois. The Blue Devils were the third No. 1 seed in the committee’s mock top 16, but its remaining conference slate is lackluster. Only its regular-season finale vs. North Carolina is scheduled to be a Quad 1 game, the type of contest that can improve the team’s resume. (Scheyer couldn’t have known for sure that the ACC would stink when he scheduled this game, but he didn’t hedge for no reason.) Instead, in addition to playing another NCAA Tournament team, Duke gets to simulate an NCAA Tournament experience: scouting an opponent on short notice, facing a different play style and even using the same balls it’ll play with in March.

Illinois is ravaged by injuries and illness and just lost Morez Johnson Jr. indefinitely with a broken wrist. It doesn’t exactly enter the game with much momentum, but it gets all those same simulation-like benefits. Should the Illini become more whole before March, that will pay dividends.

Is this something fans should expect more of in the future?

“We’re already working on opponent, location, where it’s going to be a high-level game,” Scheyer said of next season. “And to get that in February, where it’s not just home or away … it’s great for our team to get just a small taste outside of the bubble that we’re in.”

The ACC has eight sub-100 teams, compared with six in the other four high-major leagues combined, so it clearly makes sense for Duke. But because of those NCAA Tournament-like circumstances, the juice should be worth the squeeze for other high-major programs.