Twice in the last six NBA Draft cycles, the player who finished as the No. 1-ranked high school recruit in basketball has gone on to become the No. 1 pick in the subsequent NBA Draft.

That is expected to be three times in seven draft cycles come next summer.

Duke freshman Cooper Flagg, 247Sports’ No. 1 player in the 2024 recruiting class rankings, is as big an early favorite to be drafted No. 1 as Cade Cunningham was entering the 2019-20 season when it last came to fruition, and in similar standing as international star Victor Wembanyama when he began his final pro season overseas entering the 2022-23 season before his selection at No. 1.

Jumping from No. 1 recruit to No. 1 pick is far from a guarantee, of course – as you can see below dating back to 2011 – but given the draft landscape entering the season and the expectations Flagg carries with him, there’s a belief that for those interested, it’s him vs. the field as we near the start of the season.

Where recent No. 1 recruits were selected in NBA Draft

Spoiler alert: Flagg is the No. 1 prospect in our preseason prospect rankings. He has been and continues to be the No. 1 player on all our mock drafts published at CBS Sports since this summer. 

That could change, though, because as far as drafts go, the 2025 class is looking stronger than 2024 by a wide margin. And adding to that, there is a lot of uncertainty about some big X-factors near the top of the draft who could make big leaps and contend for the No. 1 spot.

So yes, right now, it’s Flagg vs. the field. We’ll see if that sticks. 

Here’s a short list of potential spoilers who could track him down.

There’s a lot to like about the two five-star freshmen Rutgers is bringing in this year and Harper, for my money, is the preferred prospect for me to Ace Bailey by a very slim margin. The son of Ron Harper, he’s a 6-foot-6 lefty lead guard who is polished, poised and productive, with versatility to play on and off the ball. His feel for the game and ability to manage an offense is what NBA teams look for at the guard spot. 

3. Ace Bailey | Rutgers | SF

NBA teams don’t draft purely off traits — but if they did, Bailey might be the No. 1 prospect by a wide margin ahead of Flagg. The 6-10 wing has the size of a power forward and the fluidity and movement of a shooting guard. He’s not just a project with good traits, either. His shot is pure and his skills as a creator and scorer are very much advanced for an 18-year-old. There will be evaluators who value Bailey over Harper long-term and may consider him in the same tier as Flagg because of the size, skill and star potential he brings to the table. It’s hard to argue against it.

Perhaps the most explosive player in this year’s class is Edgecombe. He has good size and is a walking highlight reel who 247Sports’ Adam Finkelstein observed in his evaluation is a “terror in transition.” Edgecombe is in a tier beneath the Rutgers duo for me but could elevate himself this season by polishing some skills, playing smart within Baylor’s guard-friendly scheme and applying himself defensively. Some improvement with his shot, decision-making and his handle could push him into the mix at No. 1.

5. Nolan Traore | France | PG 

In a guard-heavy lottery pool for 2025, Traore looks like a potential No. 1 pick contender with his size, scoring and playmaking versatility. He’s 6-5 with a smooth handle and strong court vision, having already put together a really nice international resume of production as a lead guard operating comfortably in pick-and-roll situations. The big question here is if his shot — particularly from distance — can improve. But the way he plays — in rhythm, rarely rushed, despite not being a 99th percentile athlete — has some shades of Cade Cunningham.

2025 NBA Draft prospect rankings

Check out the full Big Board of NBA Draft Prospect Rankings