Doha GC. Designer: Harradine, 1996; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,508 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: Paspalum, 11’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. This week we return to the Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club which had hosted this event since its inauguration in 1998, until the event moved to Education City in 2020 for 2 renewals before returning in 2022, giving us plenty of course history stats to review.

At 7,508 yards in length, the course has historically favoured longer hitters when conditions are tranquil; wayward drives aren’t punished as severely as other courses on the circuit with relatively thin rough, allowing the bombers to attack more freely. However the exposed layout is particularly susceptible to wind and even the most tranquil of forecasts in the region can still result in a fair breeze blowing over the track at times, which brings the more controlled ball-strikers into the mix.

The par-72 layout is a conventional pair of 9s with the outward 9 measuring 198 yards longer than the inward 9. The par-5s play amongst the easiest of the holes as you might expect with even the 639-yard 9th playing under par generally, however the driveable par-4 16th is also a birdie and eagle opportunity for most of the field.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Qatar Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As previously noted, Doha hosted this event up to 2019 and then again from 2022, so the 2020/21 events held at Education City should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino, 45/1; 2023: Sami Valimaki, 80/1; 2022: Ewen Ferguson, 150/1; 2021: Antoine Rozner, 22/1; 2020: Jorge Campillo, 125/1; 2019: Justin Harding, 55/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 70/1; 2017: Jeunghun Wang, 33/1; 2016: Branden Grace, 8/1; 2015: Branden Grace, 25/1; 2014: Sergio Garcia, 8/1; 2013: Chris Wood, 100/1; 2012: Paul Lawrie, 50/1; 2011: Thomas Bjorn, 200/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 66/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Doha region in Qatar is here.

Clear skies and temperatures in the low-70s Fahrenheit will greet the players this week. Wind will be a feature again this week with a 15-20mph fairly common throughout the tournament days, gusting above that at times, with only Friday offering some respite at the time of writing.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 13 winners here at Doha gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino. 299 yards (33rd), 53.6% fairways (33rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 73.7% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2023: Sami Valimaki. 318 yards (7th), 55.4% fairways (38th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 80.0% scrambling (6th), 1.74 putts per GIR (22nd).
• 2022: Ewen Ferguson. 297 yards (46th), 57.1% fairways (21st), 72.2% greens in regulation (14th), 65.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2019: Justin Harding. 300 yards (31st), 53.6% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (50th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2018: Eddie Pepperell. 268 yards (77th), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (16th), 71.4% scrambling (9th), 1.66 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2017: Jeunghun Wang. 292 yards (37th), 50% fairways (40th), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 68.8% scrambling (7th), 1.71 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2016: Branden Grace. 306 yards (6th), 46.4% fairways (44th), 76.4% greens in regulation (19th), 76.5% scrambling (3rd), 1.71 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2015: Branden Grace. 296 yards (9th), 48.2% fairways (61st), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (23rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2014: Sergio Garcia. 300 yards (5th), 51.8% fairways (54th), 75.0% greens in regulation (32nd), 72.2% scrambling (12th), 1.72 putts per GIR (18th).
• 2013: Chris Wood. 297 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (6th), 53.8% scrambling (58th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2012: Paul Lawrie. 300 yards (9th), 54.8% fairways (23rd), 79.6% greens in regulation (7th), 72.7% scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2011: Thomas Bjorn. 288 yards (34th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2010: Robert Karlsson. 296 yards (15th), 57.1% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 68.8% scrambling (11th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).

With the exception of Chris Wood in 2013, scrambling ranks are generally high here at Doha and that makes sense in an event where keeping one’s card as clean as possible is of paramount importance given that birdies aren’t that easy to come by.

The par 3s are the toughest element of the course in my opinion, so picking players with a strong mid-iron game is a positive. This venue is particularly susceptible to the wind, so siding with strong ball-strikers or those with a proven wind/coastal pedigree if the forecast suggests anything other than a flat calm week isn’t a bad move either.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 4 winners since 2019 all performed similarly from off the tee, complimented by solid approach and tee-to-green stats:

• 2024, Rikuyu Hoshino. T: 45th; A: 3rd; T2G: 11th; ATG: 46th; P: 2nd
• 2023, Sami Valimaki. T: 22nd; A: 3rd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 29th; P: 16th
• 2022, Ewen Ferguson. T: 26th ; A: 12th; T2G: 18th; ATG: 55th; P: 6th
• 2019, Justin Harding. T: 26th; A: 22nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 1st; P: 40th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: It’s worth noting that all Qatar Masters winners featured in the analysis below had recorded at least one top-13 finish in their previous 7 starts, and if you isolate the events here at Doha specifically, that can be refined to a top 10 or better.

Last year’s winner Rikuyu Hoshino follows that trend perfectly having finished 12^th in Bahrain the week before winning here:

• 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino: 25/MC/2/WD/26/36/26/2/2/MC/MC/12
• 2023: Sami Valimaki: MC/18/34/76/68/4/MC/23/74/6/41/MC
• 2022: Ewen Ferguson: MC/20/15/17/52/37/21/39/MC/8/61/40
• 2021: Antoine Rozner: 3/36/28/10/21/24/20/1/36/16/9/26
• 2020: Jorge Campillo: MC/MC/MC/34/28/13/18/34/MC/MC/67/MC
• 2019: Justin Harding: 43/46/14/4/MC/MC/51/7/11/4/26/MC
• 2018: Eddie Pepperell: 3/3/MC/7/10/6/34/48/MC/MC/MC/44
• 2017: Jeunghun Wang: MC/MC/MC/43/MC/13/29/70/13/2/17/MC/11
• 2016: Branden Grace: 17/3/47/30/17/5/22/3/8/4/4/5
• 2015: Branden Grace: 46/MC/MC/46/25/21/16/19/9/13/1/15/20
• 2014: Sergio Garcia: 40/61/29/37/4/18/9/11/4/2/1/19
• 2013: Chris Wood: 36/12/1/26/WD/43/MC/15/7/10/26/70
• 2012: Paul Lawrie: 59/35/16/45/59/11/49/MC/46/2/10/8
• 2011: Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/MC/11/17/38/5/MC/WD/52/MC/44
• 2010: Robert Karlsson: 53/71/32/16/MC/MC/33/MC/MC/2/9/60

Event Form. For the events held here at Doha, event history was mixed and certainly not a prerequisite:

• 2024: Rikuyu Hoshino: 36
• 2023: Sami Valimaki: 38/40
• 2022: Ewen Ferguson: MC
• 2021 (Education City): Antoine Rozner: 53
• 2020 (Education City): Jorge Campillo: 25/MC/MC/62/20/13/2
• 2019: Justin Harding: Debut
• 2018: Eddie Pepperell: MC/63/4/MC
• 2017: Jeunghun Wang: Debut
• 2016: Branden Grace: 47/6/13/1
• 2015: Branden Grace: 47/6/13
• 2014: Sergio Garcia: MC/19/7/7/24/9/5/2
• 2013: Chris Wood: 14/MC/20
• 2012: Paul Lawrie: 48/1/27/34/36/69/MC/11/25/46/MC/19/
• 2011: Thomas Bjorn: MC/MC/23/9/33/60/8
• 2010: Robert Karlsson: 40/2/MC/25/5/15/22/60/37

A cursory look through the list of winners here screams coastal and links golf, which makes a level of sense given the often windswept nature of the course here at Doha. With a breeze forecast for two or three of the tournament days at least, that’s probably no bad place to start here this week.

For me, some positive Middle East form is one element to look at, as is a smattering of recent form without the need for anything too spectacular. Paspalum-positive players should also shine on these greens and those players who perform well on par 3s – the toughest part of this track as I’ve mentioned above – should excel.