Coming out of a Statement Saturday full of upsets and prove-it moments to help separate the contenders from the pretenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into Week 13, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we head into consequential November football?

Rankings change: Down 6

Win total projection: 8.1 games

Avery Johnson ran for a touchdown but DJ Giddens was held out of the end zone while the Sun Devils threw for 3 touchdowns in an upset that effectively ended the Wildcats’ shot at the Big 12 title after having been a genuine contender in the conference all season.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 8.3 games

Missouri took two fourth quarter leads at South Carolina, but was unable to hold off the Gamecocks’ last ditch comebacks and fell to 3-3 in SEC play when its playoff hopes were still a vague possibility.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 9.3 games

Rocco Becht passed for a touchdown and ran for a second as the Cyclones moved past Cincinnati at home, improving to 5-2 in Big 12 play and in a tie for third place in the conference.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 7.5 games

ESPN’s computers are keeping the Hawkeyes in their top 25 rankings this week. Although idle this past weekend, Iowa sits at 4-3 in Big Ten play and plays two winnable games to close out thanks to another strong defense that ranks 15th nationally in points allowed.

Rankings change: None

Win total projection: 11.7 games

Ashton Jeanty broke the Broncos’ single-season rushing yardage record in a comeback victory on the road against San Jose State after spotting the Spartans a two-touchdown lead early in the game. Boise is still the committee’s preference as the Group of Five’s best team.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total projection: 9.8 games

After an early and costly fumble, Shedeur Sanders hunkered down and led the Buffaloes to a dominant victory against Utah, getting some help from the team’s rejuvenated defense, and this team still firmly controls its destiny in the Big 12 Championship Game picture.

Rankings change: Down 3

Win total projection: 7.4 games

Garrett Nussmeier was sacked 7 times by a spirited Florida defense in LSU’s third-straight loss, all by more than 10 points, effectively ending whatever already-slim chance this team had to realistically make a run at the SEC title game.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total projection: 10.6 games

Darian Mensah was a crisp 10 of 14 passing and the Green Wave ran for 220 yards to rout Navy by a 35-0 count and clinch a spot in the AAC title bout against Army, and now we wait to see how the selection committee interprets that information when considering the Group of Five positioning.

Rankings change: Down 4

Win total projection: 7.4 games

Tyler Shough was held to just 1 touchdown passing and while the Cardinals ran for 4 more scores, it wasn’t enough on the road against Stanford in a major upset that will harm Louisville’s reputation in the committee room heading into a game against Pitt this coming weekend.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total projection: 6.1 games

Jayden Maiava recovered from a tough beginning in his first start for the Trojans, throwing for 3 touchdowns and running for a fourth in a win over Nebraska, and the ESPN computers are still keeping this team in their rankings owing to a respectable nearly two-touchdown projected advantage against “average” teams.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total projection: 10.9 games

Kevin Jennings had 3 touchdowns and Brashard Smith ran for 120 yards and a score as the  Mustangs put away Boston College by 10, moving to 6-0 in ACC play and with only a field goal loss to playoff contender BYU all year, and yet still outside the playoff bracket coming into this week.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 8.8 games

Marcel Reed threw 2 touchdowns and ran for a third score as the Aggies took out New Mexico State with ease and moved into second place in the SEC after Tennessee’s loss with a date against Auburn before closing out against rival and conference leader Texas.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 8.4 games

Moments after allowing Missouri to take a very late lead, the Gamecocks stormed back on a gutsy last-minute drive and Raheim Sanders scored the game-winning touchdown and this looks like the scariest 7-3 team in college football right now on a 4-game win streak.

Rankings change: None

Win total projection: 9.7 games

Cade Klubnik ran through Pittsburgh’s defense for a walk-off 50-yard touchdown run in a dramatic last-minute win on the road that keeps the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game picture with a date against The Citadel before closing at home against South Carolina.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total projection: 11.4 games

Idle this past weekend, the Hoosiers are getting rested up for the biggest game of their historic 10-0 season, a road trip to Ohio State in a top-five battle that will give the committee more of an impression on where IU really belongs in the playoff pecking order.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 11.3 games

Off this past weekend, the Hurricanes slid 8 spots in the rankings the week before after losing their first game, and fell to third in the ACC standings behind Clemson and SMU, both winners on Saturday, but are still the projected conference champions in the committee’s opinion.

Rankings change: None

Win total projection: 9.8 games

Once again, just as the Vols seem to be on a roll, it’s rival Georgia that throws a wrench into that optimism, as the Bulldogs knock off Big Orange for an eighth straight time and fall from first to fourth in the SEC standings.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total projection: 12.3 games

The Ducks’ vaunted offense didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter at Wisconsin and was trailing for a lot of that game before Dillon Gabriel led an 81-yard touchdown drive in the final quarter and Oregon secured a late takeaway to sneak out of Madison with a 16-13 win to stay undefeated and clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 10.7 games

Tyler Warren went off again, leading the Nittany Lions in receiving and rushing in a dominant win at Big Ten punching bag Purdue, moving to 9-1 and taking a firmer hold on one of the dozen College Football Playoff spots with two regular season games remaining.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total projection: 9.7 games

The Rebels took this week off after bludgeoning Georgia at home the weekend prior behind an inspired defensive effort, and sit at 4-2 in SEC play and inside the top dozen of this week’s playoff bracket heading into a road date against a Florida team that just knocked off LSU.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 10.1 games

A redemption game of sorts for quarterback Carson Beck, who played mostly mistake-free football and ran for a big touchdown as the Bulldogs take down the highly-ranked Vols and ward off postseason oblivion for now, living to fight for a playoff spot late in the season with UMass up next.

Rankings change: None

Win total projection: 10.5 games

Riley Leonard had 3 touchdowns and the Irish ran for over 200 yards to put away Virginia at home, just what the committee wants to keep seeing as playoff selection draws near, but a bigger test awaits in the Bronx next week against a ranked Army squad that has already clinched a spot in the AAC title game.

Rankings change: None

Win total projection: 11.1 games

A slow start at Northwestern for the Buckeyes, but Will Howard threw a pair of touchdowns and Quinshon Judkins ran for 2 more to set up a marquee matchup against undefeated Indiana in a battle of two of the Big Ten’s top three teams next weekend.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total projection: 10.1 games

Jalen Milroe threw for 2 touchdowns and ran for a third in limited action as the Crimson Tide smacked Mercer in the late-season cupcake game to stay firmly in the College Football Playoff picture heading into a road game against Oklahoma next weekend.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total projection: 11.1 games

Not as much offense as we expected from the Longhorns against a usually-porous Arkansas defense, but they did just enough to pull out a 10-point victory and stay in the mix for the SEC Championship Game and in the top four rankings nationally.

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