The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff kicks off this weekend, marking the first time that on-campus sites will host postseason matchups in the tournament. While every FBS stadium in the country was eligible to host, the first 12-team CFP will begin at serious cathedrals of the sport with Notre Dame Stadium, Beaver Stadium, Ohio Stadium and Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to kick things off. 

If you ask Vegas, there isn’t much reason for optimism. All four games have lines of at least a touchdown for the home team. Remember this, though: this is the first year of the system. There have never been teams with this many holes or question marks playing in the CFP. There will be far more upsets and surprises than anyone expects when the games actually happen. 

Will it be SMU pulling off a shocking upset of Penn State during its first season as a member of a power conference? Or Clemson QB Cade Klubnik again outdueling a familiar foe? Could Tennessee end Ohio State’s season early? Or will Indiana beat Notre Dame in a battle of in-state programs that have not played since 1991? 

Here is how we rank the most likely upsets of the first round of the CFP. Odds below via SportsLine consensus.

1. (6) Penn State vs. (11) SMU

Line: Penn State -8.5

Mathematically, SMU was the last team in the CFP after losing the ACC Championship Game to Clemson. Penn State had a serious case for No. 1 in the country heading into the final quarter of the Big Ten Championship Game. However, the matchup between these two teams is far closer than many would think. 

Simply put, SMU has far more offensive playmakers heading into the matchup, headlined by quarterback Kevin Jennings (3,050 yards passing, 379 yards rushing 27 TDs). Running back Brashard Smith is a threat both as a runner and pass-catcher as a converted receiver, while eight total players on the roster posted at least 275 yards receiving. Five players have at least four receiving touchdowns, and that doesn’t even count leading receiver Roderick Daniels. 

Penn State has the best playmaker in the game in tight end Tyler Warren, but no other pass-catcher causes much fear. One toy in Andy Kotelnicki’s box, versatile backup QB Beau Pribula, is off to the transfer portal. The Nittany Lions needs the game to stay low-scoring and defense-first. If points start to accumulate, SMU can pull off a big upset. 

Upset Rating: 7.5/10

2. (8) Ohio State vs. (9) Tennessee

Line: Ohio State -7.5

On paper, these are the two teams projected to be the closest match in the field. Ohio State is No. 6 in the CFP Rankings, while Tennessee sits at No. 7. The battle between these two teams for seeding was tight and Neyland Stadium at least had a chance to host this game instead. 

But for all the on-paper comparisons, Ohio State’s defense is a tough matchup for Tennessee. The Vols had one of the nation’s most explosive offenses … when they played lesser opponents. Against unranked opponents, Tennessee averaged 40.6 points per game. Against ranked teams, they were at 20.5. Ohio State has a laundry list of future NFL stars on offense — Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins. At this point, Tennessee’s offense is the Dylan Sampson show. 

This is a battle of two of the best defenses in college football, but unless the Nico Iamaleava breakout is coming — his only 300-yard performance was against FCS Chattanooga — it’s hard to see how Tennessee possibly generates enough points. 

Upset Rating: 6/10

3. (5) Texas vs. (12) Clemson

Line: Texas -11.5

The 13-spot ranking difference between No. 16 Clemson and No. 3 Texas will almost certainly be the biggest of any matchup in the College Football Playoff. Regardless, this matchup is oozing with red flags. The name of the game for Clemson will be stopping the run, but the Tigers have put together the program’s worst rushing defense in more than a decade. 

Also, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is an Austin native and won state championships at Westlake High School. He’s playing quarterback Quinn Ewers (Southlake Carroll), who he outdueled in the 2020 6A State Championship Game. More relevantly, Klubnik is a master of maximizing opportunities, which has proven to be Ewers’ greatest issue. Texas is likely just better… but Klubnik will have something to say about it. 

Upset Rating: 5/10

4. (7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Indiana

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

This state championship matchup is one of the most exciting of the College Football Playoff. Despite sitting only 200 miles apart, these two teams have played only once since 1958 as Notre Dame became a football power, leaving IU to focus on basketball. Both programs have been playing with their hair on fire in 2024 and enter as two of the most dominant teams in the sport. 

But after watching the way that Indiana responded to its first matchup against an elite team, there are reasons for concerns. The Hoosiers mustered only 153 yards and 3.8 yards per pass attempt against Ohio State’s top-ranked defense. Per FEI, the Fighting Irish rate even better on that side of the ball. Can Indiana score enough points? 

Upset Rating: 4/10

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