Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. The chaos-infested Saturdays we’ve had recently have the debate raging on, but the picture is clearer now, though.

Now we know who is going to be playing in conference championship games, so the projections are starting to reflect what the actual bracket will look like a week from now.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Ohio State: Ohio State is still reeling from a shocking 13-10 loss to Michigan in its regular-season finale. There are questions about Ryan Day and his inability to win a rivalry game. But the Buckeyes are 10-2 and have wins over two other teams who will make the Playoff field in Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State is firmly in the CFP.

Tennessee: Tennessee was once in the cluster of SEC teams trying to get one of the final spots. With a win over Vanderbilt on Saturday and being one of the teams who survived the chaos of the past two weeks, the Volunteers made it to 10 wins. The difference between two-loss and three-loss teams in this race is going to be the difference. Tennessee is in.

Indiana: Had there not been a collection of shocking results, Indiana could have found itself in a position where it was being compared to two-loss SEC teams with perceived quality wins. But Alabama and Ole Miss losing last weekend paved the way for the 11-1 Hoosiers to crack the field. Indiana finished its regular season with a 66-0 win over Purdue on Saturday.

SMU: For a while this season, the ACC seemed like a one-bid league. But as the season progressed, it developed in a way that resulted in no two-loss SEC teams being on the bubble. Even if SMU loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday, it’ll finish as a two-loss team and likely get in. A lot of eyeballs are going to be locked in on SMU next weekend and rooting for the Mustangs to beat Clemson to open up one final spot in the 12-team field.

First Four Out

Alabama: The betting odds have Alabama as a slight favorite to make the College Football Playoff field. What’s the path, though? The Crimson Tide are sitting here with three losses next to teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina. Miami, a team with one fewer loss, is also on the bubble and we don’t know where the CFP is going to rank it after a loss to Syracuse. We are conditioned to think Alabama will get the benefit of the doubt, but the only way the Crimson Tide gets in is if SMU beats Clemson in the ACC title game. That would open a spot and a debate between the four bubble teams on this list.

Ole Miss: The Ole Miss-Alabama conundrum is real. The Rebels have also beaten Georgia and South Carolina, but they also have bad losses to Kentucky and Florida. I’m not sure losing to Florida is as bad as what happened to Alabama at Oklahoma, but the world seems resigned to thinking Alabama is a better choice. The CFP Committee ranked Alabama ahead last week, so that’s what we have to go on.

South Carolina: South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the country. It may have just added a win over the eventual ACC champ to its resume. But, unfortunately, the Gamecocks lost games against Alabama, LSU, and they were blown out by Ole Miss. South Carolina being in a three-team SEC cluster with two teams it lost to makes this an almost impossible path to the CFP.

Miami: All Miami had to do was beat Syracuse on Saturday and that would have probably locked the Hurricanes into the CFP. They were up 21-0 on the Orange, but Miami’s poor defense showed up, they blew the lead and now are on the outs. Miami is a 10-2 team, which means it has one fewer loss than some of the teams ranked ahead of it on the bubble. But there are no quality wins on the resume, which ultimately makes their case for inclusion pretty grim.

Next Four Out

Iowa State: The Cyclones clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win in over Kansas State on Saturday night. They now control their own destiny to make the Playoff. They are running into one of the hottest teams in the country in Arizona State in Dallas next weekend. The Sun Devils are a slight favorite, so that’s why the projection looks like this. Iowa State could potentially earn a bye week with a win over ASU. Iowa State controls its own destiny.

Missouri: The Tigers felt like they had a chance to make the Playoff coming into the year. That, unfortunately, didn’t play out. Missouri still had a solid year, finishing 9-3, but it lost all three of the games it played against other teams who had been in the CFP discourse this year. It’ll finish in the top 20 of the CFP rankings, which is why it is slotted here.

Texas A&M: The Aggies came into Saturday night’s game against Texas controlling they own destiny in the College Football Playoff race. Texas A&M hosted one of the most highly-anticipated games of the last few years, but it failed to score an offensive touchdown in a 17-7 loss to the Longhorns. Texas A&M is rightfully bummed it couldn’t get it done against a bitter rival, but it was still a successful season in Mike Elko’s first year guiding the program.

BYU: Everyone was locked in on the BYU game late Saturday night because it was going to determine who played in the Big 12 title game. The problem was it was to decide whether Iowa State or Colorado played, not BYU. Though the Cougars wound up beating Houston and sending Iowa State to Dallas, BYU couldn’t capitalize on its 9-0 start. It’ll still finish in the top 20 of the CFP rankings.

Group of 5 Watch

UNLV: UNLV got a ton of help in its CFP quest when Fresno State beat Colorado State last Saturday night. UNLV was one of the interesting stories of the season, but two heart-breaking Friday night losses to Syracuse and Boise State have knocked the Rebels out of the spotlight. But if UNLV beats Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game — in Boise — there’s an excellent chance it will be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion at the end of the year. Even with two losses.

Boise State: Boise State finished the regular season with a 34-18 win over Oregon State. Its only loss was a last-second defeat at Oregon at the beginning of the year. The Broncos have one of the best players in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty. They are considered nationally as the favorite to represent the Group of 5 in the Playoff. It still has to beat UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game next weekend. The good news? It gets to host the game. The bad news? UNLV is good and it’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season.

Army: Army‘s lone loss of the season this year was a blowout against Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium. The Black Knights, though, have not lost in AAC play this year and gets an interesting matchup with Tulane in the conference title game. If Army beats Tulane and finishes as a one-loss AAC Champ, there could be a debate with UNLV if the Rebels beat Boise State.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Penn State
Winner faces No. 4 Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl