In this first iteration of a 12-team College Football Playoff season, the run-up to Selection Sunday looks undeniably different from the recent norm.
The list of zero- and one-loss teams through 11 weeks includes neither Alabama nor Georgia for the first time since 2010. Indiana is 10-0, among four Big Ten teams that slot into the top five in the Associated Press rankings.
Four weeks from the unveiling of the first expanded postseason bracket, college football in 2024 offers something of a mix between its old self and a modified version of the NFL.
Eight top-10 teams lost to unranked foes in September and October, the sixth-highest rate of such upsets over that time in a season since 1989. And the first two weeks of November delivered stunners as South Carolina beat then-No. 10 Texas A&M and Georgia Tech toppled then-No. 4 Miami.
Parity — the state of equivalence, by definition — is not on the rise. Fourteen teams started 8-1 or 9-0 this year, the same as in 2022 and three fewer than in 2023 and 2019.
The sport remains top heavy.
Anecdotally, what’s different in 2024 is the unpredictability. It’s not that more teams or fewer teams are winning. But who’s winning, how they’re winning and the reaction to losing appears to have changed.
Colorado, at 7-2, controls its path to a CFP appearance. Army is 9-0 for the first time since 1996 and owns the longest winning streak in the nation at 13 games.
Ole Miss beat Georgia 28-10 on Saturday one year after the Rebels absorbed a 52-17 beatdown in the same matchup. Indiana’s 20-15 win against Michigan came 12 months after the Wolverines dismantled the Hoosiers 52-7 en route to a perfect season.
The Wolverines are 5-5, the worst start by a defending champion of the Playoff era, with the exception of 2020 LSU, which finished 5-5 in the pandemic-altered season.
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In the transfer portal era, the balance of power shifts fast. And it might be shifting faster than ever with 12 spots available for teams to compete to win a national championship.
Of course, that’s to find out. If the Playoff spits out a combination of Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas in the New Year’s Day semifinals, we’ll know this unpredictable regular season served only as window dressing.
For now, with the second set of CFP rankings to be released Tuesday, it’s a jumbled pot of intrigue.
No blueprint exists to manage a midseason loss that, in past years, would have knocked a team from title contention. That is, unless you look to the NFL. A poor stretch of play at the pro level in October or November poses a minor obstacle.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart has taken notice.
“We’re on a long journey,” Smart said Saturday after the loss at Ole Miss dropped the Bulldogs to 7-2. “You’ve got to play the next play. You’ve got to play the next game. … It’s tough. But you know what, our future’s in front of us.”
Fans ride the emotional waves. Players and coaches must avoid the ride, Smart said.
“It’s on to the next. Welcome to the SEC, baby.”
Smart’s altered mindset illustrates the change ushered in by the 12-team Playoff. The ninth-year head coach said he’s voiced a belief this season that no team in the SEC will escape the regular season with fewer than two defeats.
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In this season, finally, a major conference coach can downplay the importance of a loss on his team’s postseason resume. And he can actually mean it.
It’s no different with a contender that wins.
Take Ole Miss, 8-2, with Florida and Mississippi State left to play this month. Coach Lane Kiffin was asked after the landmark victory against Georgia about its impact on the Rebels’ CFP position.
“I’m not worried about anything like that,” Kiffin said. “That will work itself out.”
It will work out, yes, for a team in the position of Ole Miss. And for Georgia, Alabama or Texas A&M, as long as they don’t lose again.
Losses in college football resonate loudly. But times are changing. And still, traditional thinking often prevails. Miami coach Mario Cristobal had no use for a silver lining after the Hurricanes lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech.
“This loss needs to hurt everybody really badly, all of us, in our gut, in our heart, in every ounce of our soul,” Cristobal said Saturday. “It needs to hurt us. It does. And it needs to drive us. That’s how we’ve built this thing. That’s the DNA of the program.”
A first defeat reduced Miami’s margin for error, but its Playoff hopes remain strong with a 67 percent chance to make the field, per The Athletic.
College football is moving forward. But how far and how fast?
On the surface Tuesday night, the Playoff pool, though larger than ever, will appear familiar, featuring many of the typical contenders. Underneath, there’s intrigue and unexpected storylines akin to 2019 Minnesota, 2021 Wake Forest and 2023 Louisville, all of which would have spent time in a 12-team projected bracket after Week 11.
“Not going to be many people banging the drum,” Curt Cignetti said after his Hoosiers beat Michigan, “saying Indiana ought to be rated higher in the BCS and all that good stuff.”
Cignetti’s backhanded reference to a system replaced by the CFP model in 2014 emphasizes just how much the selection process has changed.
For the better? It’s up for debate. What’s not, in 2024, is that the race for seven at-large CFP spots shines a light on the unpredictability perhaps set to define a season — and a new era.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Todd Kirkland, Doug Murray / Icon Sportswire via Getty, James Black / Icon Sportswire via AP)
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