College football bowl projections: How chaos impacts Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
With one more week of regular-season action, 77 teams have qualified for the postseason and two more are guaranteed with a pair of showdowns between 5-6 squads this weekend.
That leaves just three more bowl spots among 12 other teams. It could mark the first time in several years bowls won’t need to elevate the 5-7 team with the best Academic Progress Rate (APR) to fill out the field. Unfortunately, that means multiple eligible teams could get left out of the postseason.
The Big Ten’s lineup seems straightforward while the SEC’s pool of available teams deepened significantly with Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama. There are 13 SEC teams that have qualified for bowl games. Our projection of three SEC teams in the CFP bracket stretches teams outside of the SEC’s bowl contracts. The ACC will have at least 12 teams, perhaps 13, bowling. The Big 12 has nine bowl teams with two more vying for the postseason this weekend.
Implementing the current and former Pac-12 schools is a challenge for each of their contracted bowls and current conferences. Seven teams have qualified for the Pac-12 legacy bowls and one more (Oregon State) has a chance to join them this weekend. The Alamo selects first after the CFP and has no restrictions on win-loss differential. Then the order consists of Holiday, Vegas, Sun, LA Bowl and Independence.
Among the power-conference teams clinching postseason berths last weekend include Nebraska for the first time since 2016, Florida (which upset Ole Miss), West Virginia, and Oklahoma. We project the Sooners getting a date with Boston College in the Gasparilla Bowl, which will serve as a curtain raiser to a first-round College Football Playoff game on Dec. 20.
This week, the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner earns bowl eligibility, while power conference teams Michigan State, Wisconsin, Auburn, NC State, Kansas and Cincinnati seek their sixth win.
A friendly reminder: Most non-CFP bowls do not have to select teams in order of conference standings.
College Football Playoff
| Bowl/Playoff | Date | Team | Team | Location | Time (ET) | Network |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Playoff |
Dec. 20 |
7. Notre Dame |
10. Indiana |
South Bend, Ind. |
8 p.m. |
ABC/ESPN |
|
Playoff |
Dec. 21 |
6. Penn State |
11. SMU |
State College, Pa. |
Noon |
TNT |
|
Playoff |
Dec. 21 |
5. Oregon |
12 Boise State (G5 champ) |
Eugene, Ore. |
3:30 p.m. |
TNT |
|
Playoff |
Dec. 21 |
8. Texas |
9. Tennessee |
Austin, Texas |
8 p.m. |
ABC/ESPN |
|
Fiesta |
Dec. 31 |
4. Arizona State (Big 12 champ) |
Oregon-Boise St winer |
Glendale, Ariz. |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Peach |
Jan. 1 |
3. Miami (ACC champ) |
Penn State-SMU winner |
Atlanta |
Noon |
ESPN |
|
Rose |
Jan. 1 |
1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ) |
Texas-Tennessee winner |
Pasadena, Calif. |
5 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Sugar |
Jan. 1 |
2. Georgia (SEC champ) |
Notre Dame/Indiana winner |
New Orleans |
8:45 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Orange |
Jan. 9 |
Quarterfinal winner |
Quarterfinal winner |
Miami, Fla. |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Cotton |
Jan. 10 |
Quarterfinal winner |
Quarterfinal winner |
Arlington, Texas |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Championship |
Jan. 20 |
Semifinal winner |
Semifinal winner |
Atlanta |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
Remaining bowls
| Bowl | Date | Team | Team | Location | Time (ET) | Network |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bahamas |
Jan. 4 |
Ohio (MAC) |
Liberty (C-USA) |
Nassau, Bahamas |
11 a.m. |
ESPN2 |
|
Duke’s Mayo |
Jan. 3 |
Minnesota (Big Ten 6) |
Virginia Tech (ACC 5-7) |
Charlotte, N.C. |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
First Responder |
Jan. 3 |
Baylor (ESPN) |
UTSA (ESPN) |
University Park, Texas |
4 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Gator |
Jan. 2 |
Duke (ACC 2-4) |
Florida (SEC 3-8) |
Jacksonville, Fla. |
7:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Texas |
Dec. 31 |
TCU (Big 12 4) |
Missouri (SEC 3-8) |
Houston |
3:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Citrus |
Dec. 31 |
Illinois (Big Ten 2) |
Alabama (SEC 2) |
Orlando, Fla. |
3 p.m. |
ABC |
|
Sun |
Dec. 31 |
North Carolina (ACC 5-7) |
USC (Pac-12 5) |
El Paso, Texas |
2 p.m. |
CBS |
|
ReliaQuest |
Dec. 31 |
Iowa (Big Ten 3) |
South Carolina (SEC 3-8) |
Tampa, Fla. |
Noon |
ESPN |
|
Music City |
Dec. 30 |
Nebraska (Big Ten 4) |
Ole Miss (SEC 3-8) |
Nashville, Tenn. |
2:30 p.m. |
ABC |
|
Independence |
Dec. 28 |
Army (AAC) |
Kansas* (Pac-12 7) |
Shreveport, La. |
9:15 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Alamo |
Dec. 28 |
BYU (Big 12 2) |
Colorado (Pac-12 2) |
San Antonio, Texas |
9:15 p.m. |
ABC |
|
Military |
Dec. 28 |
Navy (AAC 2) |
Georgia Tech (ACC 8-10) |
Annapolis, Md. |
5:45 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Arizona |
Dec. 30 |
Colorado State (MWC) |
Bowling Green (MAC) |
Tucson, Ariz. |
4:30 p.m. |
CW |
|
Pop-Tarts |
Dec. 28 |
Iowa State (Big 12 3) |
Clemson (ACC 2-4) |
Orlando, Fla. |
3:30 p.m. |
ABC |
|
New Mexico |
Dec. 28 |
New Mexico (MWC) |
Texas State (ESPN) |
Albuquerque, N.M. |
2:15 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Pinstripe |
Dec. 28 |
Michigan (Big Ten 5) |
Louisville (ACC 5-7) |
Bronx, N.Y. |
Noon |
ABC |
|
Fenway |
Dec. 28 |
Pittsburgh (ACC 8-10) |
Memphis (AAC) |
Boston |
11 a.m. |
ESPN |
|
Vegas |
Dec. 27 |
Washington (Pac-12 4) |
Texas A&M (SEC 3-8) |
Las Vegas, Nev. |
10:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Holiday |
Dec. 27 |
Syracuse (ACC 2-4) |
Washington State (Pac-12 3) |
San Diego, Calif. |
8 p.m. |
FOX |
|
Liberty |
Dec. 27 |
Kansas State (Big 12 5) |
LSU (SEC 3-8) |
Memphis, Tenn. |
7 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Birmingham |
Dec. 27 |
Vanderbilt (SEC 9) |
Tulane (ESPN) |
Birmingham, Ala. |
12/3:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Armed Forces |
Dec. 27 |
West Virginia (Big 12 7) |
Arkansas (ESPN) |
Fort Worth, Texas |
12/3:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
68 Ventures |
Dec. 26 |
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt) |
Western Kentucky (C-USA) |
Mobile, Ala. |
9 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Rate |
Dec. 26 |
Michigan State (Big Ten 7) |
Texas Tech (Big 12 6) |
Phoenix, Ariz. |
5:45 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
GameAbove |
Dec. 26 |
Rutgers (Big Ten 8) |
Miami of Ohio (MAC) |
Detroit |
2 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Hawaii |
Dec. 24 |
Fresno State (MWC) |
Jacksonville State (C-USA) |
Honolulu, Hawaii |
8 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Idaho Potato |
Dec. 23 |
San Jose State (MWC) |
Buffalo (MAC) |
Boise, Idaho |
2:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Myrtle Beach |
Dec. 23 |
James Madison (ESPN) |
East Carolina (ESPN) |
Myrtle Beach, S.C. |
11 a.m. |
ESPN |
|
Gasparilla |
Dec. 20 |
Boston College (ACC 8-10) |
Oklahoma (ESPN) |
Tampa, Fla. |
3:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Cure |
Dec. 20 |
USF (ESPN) |
Marshall (ESPN) |
Orlando, Fla. |
Noon |
ESPN |
|
New Orleans |
Dec. 19 |
Louisiana (Sun Belt) |
Sam Houston (C-USA) |
New Orleans |
7 p.m. |
ESPN2 |
|
LA Bowl |
Dec. 18 |
California (Pac-12 6) |
UNLV (MWC 1) |
Inglewood, Calif. |
9 p.m. |
ABC |
|
Boca Raton |
Dec. 18 |
UConn (ESPN) |
Northern Illinois (ESPN) |
Boca Raton, Fla. |
5:30 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Frisco |
Dec. 17 |
Arkansas State (ESPN) |
North Texas (ESPN) |
Frisco, Texas |
9 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Camellia |
Dec. 14 |
South Alabama (ESPN) |
Toledo (ESPN) |
Montgomery, Ala. |
9 p.m. |
ESPN |
Notes: (ESPN) indicates an ESPN Events bowl. Teams can be moved between them. An * indicates a replacement team because a league was not able to fill all of its slots.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)
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